- 66 Views
- Uploaded on
- Presentation posted in: General

WHAT IS PROBABILITY?

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

WHAT IS PROBABILITY?

CLIL project

Class II C

ACTIVITIES

CLIL project

Class II C

likely

probable

coin

outcome

sample space

Jack

King

probability

set

event

Gambing

CLASSICAL DEFINITION

FREQUENTIST DEFINITION

SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY

Bruno De Finetti proposed the subjective theory of Probability and he worked in Triest in

the first half of the XX century (University, Assicurazioni Generali)

favourable

possible

probability

divided

outcomes

favourable

cases

3/6 = 1/2

3/10

4/10

12/90 =6/45

2/5

X

0

X

0

X

1

X

0

X

0

X

0

X

1

X

0

X

1

X

1

J A C K

A

SE

TO

SS

N E

P

OBABI

LI

TY

F R E Q U N T I T

L

P L

ACE

D R A W

F V O R A B L E

F I

NE TT

I

L K E L Y

H E D

C R T A I N

C O N

AR

D

Z E O

P(blue)=3/9=1/3 P(not blue)= 1 – 1/3=2/3

P(jack)=4/40=1/10 P(not jack)= 1 – 1/10=9/10

P(>75)=15/90=1/6 P(not >75)= 1 – 1/6=5/6

P(odd)=3/6=1/2 P(even: not odd)= 1 – 1/2=1/2

P (your birthday)=1/365 P(not your birthday)= 1 – 1/365=364/365

P(good)=3/8 P(bad: not good)= 1 – 3/8=5/8

P(I complete)=0,23 P(I don’t complete)= 1 – 0,23 = 0,77

P(wins)=0,73 P(loses: doesn’t win)= 1 – 0,73 = 0,27

P(7)=0 P(not 7)= 1 – 0 = 1

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

4/52 4/51 dependent P=4/52 4/51=16/2652

4/52 4/52 independent P=4/52 4/52=16/2704

1/37 1/37 independent P=1/37 1/37=1/1369

N

T

ER

SE

C T

I

ON

I N D I P E N D E N T

M U L I P L I C A T I O N

O

M

U T

U

L

L Y

D

S

JO

I

T

X C L U S I V E

A D D T I O N

A D

V E N N

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

III) Find the probability of the events formed by the following couples of disjoint events:

1/6

1/6

1/6 + 1/6 =2/6

1/4

1/4

1/4 + 1/4 =1/2

1/37

0/37

1/37 + 0/37 =1/37

7/90

9/90

7/90 + 9/90 =16/90

0,45+0,15 =0,60

6/14

5/14

6/14 + 5/14 =11/14

- Name and Surname______________________________
- ACTIVITY 6. TOTAL PROBABILITY and REVIEW
- Find the probability of the events formed by the following couples of not disjoint events:

13/52

12/52

3/52

13/52+12/52-3/52

7/90

9/90

1/90

7/90+9/90-1/90=15/90

14/25

11/25

6/25

14/25+11/25-6/25=19/25