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## PowerPoint Slideshow about ' WHAT IS PROBABILITY?' - burke-bolton

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FREQUENTIST DEFINITION

SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY

Bruno De Finetti proposed the subjective theory of Probability and he worked in Triest in

the first half of the XX century (University, Assicurazioni Generali)

favourable

possible

probability

divided

outcomes

favourable

cases

3/6 = 1/2

3/10

4/10

12/90 =6/45

2/5

X

0

X

0

X

1

X

0

X

0

X

0

X

1

X

0

X

1

X

1

A

SE

TO

SS

N E

P

OBABI

LI

TY

F R E Q U N T I T

L

P L

ACE

D R A W

F V O R A B L E

F I

NE TT

I

L K E L Y

H E D

C R T A I N

C O N

AR

D

Z E O

P(blue)=3/9=1/3 P(not blue)= 1 – 1/3=2/3

P(jack)=4/40=1/10 P(not jack)= 1 – 1/10=9/10

P(>75)=15/90=1/6 P(not >75)= 1 – 1/6=5/6

P(odd)=3/6=1/2 P(even: not odd)= 1 – 1/2=1/2

P (your birthday)=1/365 P(not your birthday)= 1 – 1/365=364/365

P(good)=3/8 P(bad: not good)= 1 – 3/8=5/8

P(I complete)=0,23 P(I don’t complete)= 1 – 0,23 = 0,77

P(wins)=0,73 P(loses: doesn’t win)= 1 – 0,73 = 0,27

P(7)=0 P(not 7)= 1 – 0 = 1

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

4/52 4/51 dependent P=4/52 4/51=16/2652

4/52 4/52 independent P=4/52 4/52=16/2704

1/37 1/37 independent P=1/37 1/37=1/1369

T

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SE

C T

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ON

I N D I P E N D E N T

M U L I P L I C A T I O N

O

M

U T

U

L

L Y

D

S

JO

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X C L U S I V E

A D D T I O N

A D

V E N N

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

III) Find the probability of the events formed by the following couples of disjoint events:

1/6

1/6

1/6 + 1/6 =2/6

1/4

1/4

1/4 + 1/4 =1/2

1/37

0/37

1/37 + 0/37 =1/37

7/90

9/90

7/90 + 9/90 =16/90

0,45+0,15 =0,60

6/14

5/14

6/14 + 5/14 =11/14

- Name and Surname______________________________ following couples of disjoint events:
- ACTIVITY 6. TOTAL PROBABILITY and REVIEW
- Find the probability of the events formed by the following couples of not disjoint events:

13/52

12/52

3/52

13/52+12/52-3/52

7/90

9/90

1/90

7/90+9/90-1/90=15/90

14/25

11/25

6/25

14/25+11/25-6/25=19/25

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