Intl.St. 169 / Pol. Sci.159 / Soc. Sci. 151
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Intl.St. 169 / Pol. Sci.159 / Soc. Sci. 151 The Politics of Reconstruction: The Case of Iraq PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Intl.St. 169 / Pol. Sci.159 / Soc. Sci. 151 The Politics of Reconstruction: The Case of Iraq Fall Quarter 2008 Instructor: Bojan Petrovic. Demographic structure:. Shiites 55-60% Sunnis about 15-20% Kurds (Muslim and Yezidi) about 15-20%

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Intl.St. 169 / Pol. Sci.159 / Soc. Sci. 151 The Politics of Reconstruction: The Case of Iraq

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Intl st 169 pol sci 159 soc sci 151 the politics of reconstruction the case of iraq

Intl.St. 169 / Pol. Sci.159 / Soc. Sci. 151

The Politics of Reconstruction: The Case of Iraq

Fall Quarter 2008

Instructor: Bojan Petrovic


Demographic structure

Demographic structure:

  • Shiites 55-60%

  • Sunnis about 15-20%

  • Kurds (Muslim and Yezidi) about 15-20%

  • Assyrians, Mandeans, Turkmens, Roma (no more than 3-5%)


Security situation main actors

Security situation: Main actors

  • American and coalition troops;

  • Sunni Arab insurgents;

  • Shiite militias;

  • Foreign (including al-Qaeda) insurgency groups;

  • Criminal gangs (some associated with armed political groups, others acting on their own)


Current security situation

Current security situation:

  • Overall violence down at least 80 percent;

  • Ethno-sectarian violence: down by over 90 percent;

  • Through June, the number of violent civilian deaths has averaged about 700 a month in 2008, a lower rate than in any previous year of the war (with the possible exception of 2003).

  • U.S. military deaths in Iraq have dropped from about 70 a month in early 2007 to about 25 a month now, and the death rate for the ISF has fallen by half, from 200 a month to about 100.


Two important sources of threat more recently before the surge

Two important sources of threat (more recently, before the “surge”):

  • Al-Qaeda and supporting insurgent groups.

  • The faction led by Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi militia.


Security situation problems remain

Security situation (problems remain):

  • Kirkuk


Political situation

Political situation:

  • Sectarian central government;

  • Corruption;

  • Little influence over regions.


Economy

Economy:

  • Stalled recovery;

  • Current growth under 5% (moderate given high oil prices);

  • Dependency on oil exports and international aid;

  • High unemployment rates.


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