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Modeling Workgroup

Modeling Workgroup. Charge: Develop, implement, and evaluate state-of-the-art numerical modeling systems for the SE coastal ocean for process oriented research and operational forecasting applications. Members:. Sea Level & Current meter comparisons.

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Modeling Workgroup

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  1. Modeling Workgroup Charge:Develop, implement, and evaluate state-of-the-art numerical modeling systems for the SE coastal ocean for process oriented research and operational forecasting applications. Members:

  2. Sea Level & Current meter comparisons POM, ROMS, & FVCOM hindcast comparisons with data. BAROTROPIC BAROCLINIC

  3. LARVAL DISPERSAL STUDIES (CORAL REEFS, MPAs) High-resolution models for estuary-shelf interactions and hurricane storm surge simulations. 2.6Km/day 2.0Km/day 1.8Km/day 0.8Km/day

  4. Nesting with basin-scale HYCOM & NCOM models Data assimilation statistical adjoint CODAE planning HF radar-derived surface currents Surface drifters Velocity profilers from moorings T/S fields from profilers and gliders Focus on the Summer 2003 cool event for hindcast case

  5. USF Modeling – Progress/Plans FVCOM for estuary- shelf interactions and hurricane storm surge. POM, ROMS, & FVCOM hindcast comparisons with data. ROMS over a larger domain for nesting in HYCOM (or NCOM) FY05 PLANS Hindcast reanalyses Nesting (HYCOM+) Data assimilation statistical adjoint

  6. Summary to date • WFS baroclinic hindcasts for process descriptions (using POM) • WFS coupled phys./biol. models of primary productivity [with J. Walsh] • Charlotte Harbor estuary applications (using ECOM3D-si) • WFS hurricane storm surge simulations (using FVCOM) • Tampa Bay under various scenarios • Hurricane Charley simulation for Charlotte Harbor • WFS baroclinic estuary-shelf interaction simulations (using FVCOM) • WFS barotropic nowcast/forecast • Larger, SEACOOS domain climatological monthly mean runs (using ROMS) • Comparisons of WFS hindcasts against in-situ data (using POM, FVCOM, and ROMS) • Year 4 plans • Hindcast reanalyses with initial emphases on 2001, a red-tide year. • Nesting with HYCOM (and possibly NCOM) • Implementation of data assimilation techniques • Statistical • Adjoint

  7. UM Modeling – Progress/Plans EFSIS BAROTROPIC BAROCLINIC GLOBAL NCOM Drifter Trajectories Released At Selected Points Sea Surface Heights And Vertically-averaged Velocities • YR3 PLANS • Downscaling from GLOBAL NCOM to hi-res coastal strip • Skill assessment • - baroclinc model • - synoptic forcing • - tidal forcing • - Lagrangian trajectories • CODAE planning • - HF radar-derived surface currents • - surface and subsurface drifters • - CTD and velocity profiles LARVAL DISPERSAL from CORAL REEF First 12h (solid line) Next 24h (dashed line)

  8. Sea Level & Current meter comparisons October 2000 Drifter Separation 2.6Km/day 2.0Km/day 1.8Km/day 0.8Km/day UNC Modeling – Progress/Plans

  9. Sea Level & Current meter comparisons October 2000 Drifter Separation 2.6Km/day 2.0Km/day 1.8Km/day 0.8Km/day UNC Modeling – Progress/Plans Baroclinic cases (including temperature and salinity effects) Coupling to HYCOM/basin-scale solutions with regional Quoddy model Focus on the Summer 2003 cool event for hindcast case • Drifter trajectories in the SAB • Reduced difference between observed and modeled trajectories by: • inclusion of drifter characteristics, and • melding of observed and modeled winds • Difference is of the order of 1km/day, or 1cm/sec Hindcasts for SEACOOS-wide response to meteorological events in March 2001 Paper in preparation for submittal

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