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Brief About:. Super Flood 2010 in Pakistan. Arif Mahmood Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department. PMD. Seismology (Earthquake Monitoring). Hydrology (Flood Forecasting). Meteorology (Weather Forecasting). Specialized Early Warning Centres of PMD. National Weather

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Brief About:

Super Flood 2010 in Pakistan

Arif Mahmood

Director General

Pakistan Meteorological Department


PMD

Seismology

(Earthquake Monitoring)

Hydrology

(Flood Forecasting)

Meteorology

(Weather Forecasting)


Specialized early warning centres of pmd
Specialized Early Warning Centres of PMD

National Weather

Forecasting Centre

Islamabad

(NWFC)

Marine Meteorology &

Tropical Cyclone Early

Warning Centre

Karachi

(TCWC)

National Seismic Monitoring &

Tsunami Early Warning Centre

Karachi

(NTWC)

Flood Forecasting Division

Lahore (FFD)

Flood Forecasting &

Warning Centre

For Lai Nullah Basin

Islamabad


Risk Identification: Early warnings

Time dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and maintenance of warnings at PMD

120 h

96 h

72 h

48 h

24 h

Ensemble Pred. tools

EPS, Probabilities

Global models

Global models

Limited Area models

L.A. models

Nowcasting tools

Nowcasting

Warnings Activities


HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AND FLOOD FORECASTING

Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) Lahore is a specialized unit of PMD for this purpose.

  • Responsibilities

  • i. Flood Forecasting

  • ii. River stream flow forecasting

  • iii Water availability Forecast for Dams

  • iii. Assisting Water Management at Dams specially during Monsoon


Flood Forecasting System

in

Pakistan Meteorological Department

  • 10-cm Doppler Radar at (FFD) Lahore & Mangla

  • QPM Radar at Sialkot

  • Nationwide Network of Weather Surveillance Radars.

  • Satellite Ground Station

  • Numerical Forecasting Models

  • Meteorological Analysis Centre


5 cm radar at Islamabad

RADAR NETWORK OF PMD

IBD

DIK

RHK

KHI

Area covered by Doppler radar at Lahore

10 cm radar at FFD Lahore

LHR





Extreme Event

On July 23, 2001 621 mm of rainfall was recorded in Islamabad in just 8 hours


Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD

Advisory # 1 24th July 2010

Widespread Monsoon Rains predicted during the coming Week

Weather Forecast for Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa

Isolated rain/thunderstorm expected over Khyber Pukhtoonkhwa on Monday. Scattered rain/thundershowers with heavy falls expected on Tuesday/Wednesday

Advisory # 2 26th July 2010

Widespread Monsoon Rains predicted from Tuesday to Thursday

Weather Forecast for Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa

Widespread rain/thundershowers (occasionally heavy falls over D.I.Khan, Bannu, Kohat, Mardan and Peshawar divisions) is expected in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa from Tuesday to Thursday.


Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD

Advisory # 3 27th July 2010

Time: 1400

Weather Forecast for Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa

Widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated heavy falls expected over Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa on Tuesday/Wednesday, becoming scattered rain/thundershowers on Thursday. Isolated heavy falls may cause flash flooding in the hilly rivers/ravines of Hazara, Mardan and Peshawar areas.

Weather Forecast for Punjab

Widespread Rain/thundershowers (heavy at times over upper parts of Punjab) is expected in Punjab on Tuesday/Wednesday, becoming scattered rain/thundershowers on Thursday. Heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding in the local Naullahs/streams of Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala and D. G. Khan divisions.


Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD

Advisory # 4 Date: July 28, 2010/Time: 1500 PST

Widespread Monsoon Rains predicted on Wednesday Night/Thursday

Weather Forecast for Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa

Widespread rain/thundershowers with isolated heavy falls expected over Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa Tonight/Thursday, becoming scattered on Friday. Isolated heavy falls may cause flash flooding in the local rivers/streams of Hazara, Mardan, Malakand and Peshawar areas.

Weather Forecast for Punjab

Widespread Rain/thundershowers (heavy at times) is expected in Punjab Tonight/Thursday, becoming scattered on Friday. Heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding in the local Naullahs/streams of Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala and D. G. Khan divisions during the period.


Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD

S.No.08                                                                Dated: 28th July 2010

  Time of Issue: 1600 PST

Significant  Flood Forecast For River Kabul and its Tributaries.

               According to latest meteorological observations heavy rainfall has been recorded in upper Khyber Pakhtonkhwa. Under this scenario, the inundation in low lying areas and flash flooding is expected in River Kabul and its tributaries during next 24 to36-hours


Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD

S.No.09                                                

                                                                              Dated: 28th July 2010

Time of Issue: 1900 PST

Significant  Flood Forecast For River Indus at Tarbela

             According to latest meteorological conditions heavy rainfall is expected in the upper catchments of river Indus. It is predicted that river Indus at Tarbela is likely to attain a medium to high flood level ranging between 3, 90,000 to 5, 30,000 cusecs during the period from 1930 hrs. PST of 28-07-2010 to 1000 hrs. PST of 29-07-2010.  


Forecasts /Warnings issued by PMD

S.No.  10                                                               Date: 28-07-2010

  Time of Issue: 2200 PST

Significant  Flood Forecast For River Indus at Kalabagh

          According to latest meteorological conditions heavy rainfall is expected in the upper catchments of river Indus. It is predicted that river Indus at Kalabagh is likely to attain a medium to high flood level ranging between 4,00,000 to 5, 40,000 cusecs during the period from 0400 hrs. PST of  29-07-2010  to 2200 hrs. PST of  29-07-2010.  




Flood Situation as on 17 predictedth August 2010

Pakistan Meteorological Department

First Flood Wave

Second Flood Wave

(All values in Cusecs)

Present inflow = 347000

Present Peak 832000

H.Peak=520000 (1992)

Tarbela

Kabul

Present Peak 2,49,100

Present Flow: 116500

Present infow = 434744

Present Peak 937453

H.Peak=950005(1942)

Kalabagh/Jinnah

Chashma

Present inflow=490878

Present Peak 1038873

H.Peak=786600(1976)

Present inflow=580002

Present Peak 959991

H.Peak=788646(1958)

Taunsa

Present inflow=1037610

Present Peak 1148738

H.Peak=1199672 (1976)

Guddu

Sukkar

Present inflow=1025455

Present Peak 1130995

H.Peak=1166574 (1986)

Present inflow=353918

Fcst Peak 750000

H.Peak=980329 (1956)

Kotri


Guddu predicted

Present inflow=1037610

Present Peak 1148738

H.Peak=1199672 (1976)

First Flood Wave

Pakistan Meteorological Department

First Flood Wave

Second Flood Wave

(All values in Cusecs)

Sukkur

Present inflow=1025455

Present Peak 1130995

H.Peak=1166574 (1986)

Kotri

Present inflow=353918

Fcst Peak 350000-500000

H.Peak=980329 (1956)


2nd Flood Wave predicted

(All values in Cusecs)

Pakistan Meteorological Department

Trimmu

Present inflow=208345

Tarbela

Present inflow = 347000

Kabul

Present inflow =116500

Kalabagh / Jinnah

Present infow = 434744

Chashma

Present inflow=490878

Taunsa

Present inflow=580002


2nd Flood Wave predicted

(All values in Cusecs)

Pakistan Meteorological Department

Second Flood Wave

Guddu

Present inflow=1037610

Present Peak 1148738

H.Peak=1199672 (1976)

Sukkur

Present inflow=1025455

Present Peak 1130995

H.Peak=1166574 (1986)

Kotri (Fcst)

350,000 - 500,000

21st Aug, 2010


Outlook for Monsoon Season (July-Sep) 2010 predicted

     Meteorological data suggests that on all Pakistan basis the monsoon rains during Jul-Sep (2010) in most parts of the country are likely to be normal (+10%), which means that the over all availability of water in the country from monsoon rains would be sufficient.

     Due to sharp sea-land temperature contrast, the development of some mid-tropospheric circulations are likely in north Arabian Sea that may cause heavy rainfall events over southern areas of Pakistan (Sindh) during Jul-Sep.

Due to the interactions of westerly-easterly waves, few very heavy rainfall events would also occur over north Pakistan that may cause urban/flash flooding during Jul-Sep.


Thank You predicted


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