Loading in 5 sec....

Population Growth and the Demographic TransitionPowerPoint Presentation

Population Growth and the Demographic Transition

- By
**bryce** - Follow User

- 425 Views
- Updated On :

Population Growth and the Demographic Transition. Ian RH Rockett, PhD, MPH Professor and Associate Chair Department of Community Medicine West Virginia University PO Box 9190 Morgantown, WV 26506-9190 USA [email protected] Learning Objectives.

Related searches for Population Growth and the Demographic Transition

Download Presentation
## PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Population Growth and the Demographic Transition' - bryce

**An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation**

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript

### Demography

### Law of 70 heightens interest in the notion of doubling time. Calculation of population doubling time is facilitated by the

### T.R. Malthus, 1766-1834 heightens interest in the notion of doubling time. Calculation of population doubling time is facilitated by the

### Solution to the Malthusian Trap serve as a

### Population Explosion serve as a

### Population Explosion serve as a

### The Demographic Transition serve as a

### The Demographic Transition serve as a

### CRUDE VITAL RATES serve as a

### CRUDE VITAL RATES serve as a

Population Growth and the Demographic Transition

Ian RH Rockett, PhD, MPH

Professor and Associate Chair

Department of Community Medicine

West Virginia University

PO Box 9190

Morgantown, WV 26506-9190

USA

Learning Objectives

- To view population growth from a Malthusian perspective
- To calculate crude death rates, birth rates, rates of natural increase, and population doubling times
- To comprehend the concept of the Demographic Transition

Performance Objectives

- Examine patterns of natural increase
- Classify populations and sub-populations within the demographic transition framework
- Predict growth trends in populations and sub-populations

a kindred population science

with epidemiology, it shares the Greek root demos (people) and the same founder, 17th century Englishman, John Graunt

Demography is the scientific study of the determinants and consequences of human population trends

By the beginning of the 21 consequences of human population trendsst century, world population reached 6 billion. Most of the growth has occurred in the past 200 years.

Figure 1 consequences of human population trends World Population Growth

Source: Joseph A. McFalls, Jr. Population: A Lively Introduction. Third edition. Population Reference Bureau 53(3); 1998: 38

The unprecedented population growth of modern times heightens interest in the notion of doubling time. Calculation of population doubling time is facilitated by the Law of 70.

If a population is growing at a constant rate of 1% per year, it can be expected to double approximately every 70 years

-- if the rate of growth is 2%, then the expected doubling time is 70/2 or 35 years.

English clergyman, Thomas Robert Malthus, was the first person to draw widespread attention to the two components of natural increase, births and deaths (fertility and mortality).

In his heightens interest in the notion of doubling time. Calculation of population doubling time is facilitated by the Essay on the Principle of Population, initially published in 1798, Malthus postulated that population tended to grow geometrically while the means of subsistence (food) grew only arithmetically.

The Malthusian Trap heightens interest in the notion of doubling time. Calculation of population doubling time is facilitated by the arithmetic growth (food): 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10…geometric growth (population):1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512…

Malthus argued that the difference between geometric and arithmetic growth caused a tension between the growth of population and that of the means of subsistence.-- this gap could not persist indefinitely.

Owing to war, disease, hunger, and vice, mortality would serve as a positive check on population growth.

Preventive checks: birth control through (1) later age at marriage. (2)abstinence from sex outside marriage.

(Malthus opposed artificial methods of birth control on moral grounds. Viewed contraception as a vice)

Contrary to Malthus’s prediction, mortality has not yet risen to curb world population growth.

< 1 billion people in 1800

6 billion by the end of the

20th century

Why was Malthus unable to foresee the population explosion (also known as the population bomb)?

He did not recognize the force of the Industrial Revolution, which produced exponential growth in the means of subsistence.

During the first half of the 20th century, demographers conceived the notion of the demographic transition.

The demographic transition framework illustrates population growth in terms of discrepancies and changes in two crude vital rates – mortality and fertility (ignores migration)

Crude Death Rate (CDR) =

# deaths in calendar year * k

mid–year population

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) =

# deaths in calendar year * k

mid–year population

Rate of Natural Increase = CBR - CDR

Figure 2 serve as a The Demographic Transition

Source: Joseph A. McFalls, Jr. Population: A Lively Introduction. Third edition. Population Reference Bureau 53(3); 1998: 39

Four Perspectives on Demographic Transition serve as a

Description serve as a

(2) Classification

(3) Explanation serve as a

(4) Prediction

Figure 3 serve as a Demographic/ Epidemiologic Transition Framework

Source: Ian R.H. Rockett. Population and Health: An Introduction to Epidemiology. Second edition. Population Reference Bureau 54(4); 1999: 9

Download Presentation

Connecting to Server..