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# 成本决策 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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## PowerPoint Slideshow about ' 成本决策' - bryce

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1、差量分析法

2、本量分析法

3、线性规划法

55X=8000+53X

X1+4X2+8X3≤900

X1≥0,X≥20,X3≥0

150万元

500万元

50万元

330万元

100万元

40万元

（150X0.6+50X0.4）X5=550（万元）

550-500=50（万元）

380-200=180（万元）

α是一个经验常数，若α接近于，则比较乐观，若偏于悲观，乐观系数值可取小一点，用乐观系数法进行决策时，选择各方案乐观期望值最大者作为决策方案。

A1乐观期望值=60X0.7+（-25）X（1-0.7）=34.5（万元）

A2乐观期望值=40X0.7+0X（1-0.7）=28（万元）

A3乐观期望值=20X0.7+10X（1-0.7）=17（万元）

A1的期望值=60X1/3+20X1/3+(-25)X1/3=18.3(万元)

A2的期望值=40X1/3+25X1/3+0X1/3=21.7(万元)

A3的期望值=20X1/3+15X1/3+10X1/3=15(万元)

A2的期望值最高 ，故选方案A2

A2方案的最大后悔值为最小，故应选A2方案