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Discussion of Microsoft PredictionPoint. Robin Hanson George Mason University Nov. 1, 2007. Great stuff!. Henry addresses key issues. Striking: scheduling big win, yet low interest! Let me frame: What theory best explains disinterest? Method we should use:

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Discussion of Microsoft PredictionPoint

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Discussion of microsoft predictionpoint l.jpg

Discussion of Microsoft PredictionPoint

Robin Hanson

George Mason University

Nov. 1, 2007


Great stuff l.jpg

Great stuff!

  • Henry addresses key issues.

    • Striking: scheduling big win, yet low interest!

  • Let me frame:

    What theory best explains disinterest?

  • Method we should use:

    • List plausible theories

    • Identify differing predictions

    • Code cases in relevant variables

    • Evaluate predictions for coded cases


Schedule forecast distortions l.jpg

Important, big market info gains, yet resist

We each lowball our done dates

Bosses like lowballing software managers [Jorgensen et al J Sys Soft ‘04]

“Signals ability”

P. Jackson on L.O.R.

Schedule Forecast Distortions

Effort

Target date

Date expect


Theories of disinterest l.jpg

Theories of Disinterest

  • Added accuracy not worth lost time

  • Avoid new ways, unless “we new”

  • Would say we doing bad, need help

  • Threatens existing forecast experts

  • Fear trip insider trading laws

  • Dislike info leaks to outsiders

  • Want “fudge” to look good to superiors

  • Want “fudge” for line/outside perceptions


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