New estimates of housing unit loss
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New Estimates of Housing Unit Loss. Greg Harper Population Division October 5, 2004 Presented to FSCPE Fall Meeting. Overview. Subcounty population estimate methodology Old estimate of housing unit loss Housing unit loss research New housing unit loss methodology

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New Estimates of Housing Unit Loss

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New estimates of housing unit loss

New Estimates of Housing Unit Loss

Greg Harper

Population Division

October 5, 2004

Presented to FSCPE Fall Meeting


Overview

Overview

  • Subcounty population estimate methodology

  • Old estimate of housing unit loss

  • Housing unit loss research

  • New housing unit loss methodology

  • Summary of new housing loss rates

  • Evaluation of new housing loss rates

  • Updates to new housing loss rates


Subcounty population estimates methodology

Subcounty Population Estimates Methodology

Distributive Housing Unit Method

  • Change in housing units since the last Census at the subcounty level is used to distribute the estimated county population

  • Components of Housing Unit Change

    • Residential Construction

    • Mobile Home Placements

    • Housing Unit Loss


Housing unit estimates equation

Housing Unit Estimates Equation

  • HU04 = HU00 + (NC04 + NM04) –HL04

  • HU04 = Estimated 2004 Housing Units

  • HU00 = 2000 Housing Unit Estimates Base

  • NC04 = Estimated New Residential Construction: 2000 - 2004

  • NM04 = Estimated New Residential Mobile Homes: 2000 - 2004

  • HL04 = Estimated Residential Housing Loss: 2000 - 2004


Old housing unit loss estimate

Old Housing Unit Loss Estimate

  • 1999 loss rates applied to Census 2000 data

  • Loss rates based on 1993 Components of Inventory Change (CINCH) survey data and 1990 Census

  • 0.3% annual loss rate at the national level


Housing unit loss research

Housing Unit Loss Research

  • Residual Method

  • Updated Master Address File

  • American Community Survey


New housing unit loss estimate

New Housing Unit Loss Estimate

  • Data derived from 1997–2003 AHS National Sample

  • Type of Non-interview Considered a Loss

    • Type B, 16 - Interior exposed to the elements

    • Type C, 30 – Demolished or disaster loss

    • Type C, 31 – House or mobile home moved

  • Categories for Developing Loss Rates

    • Mobile Homes

    • Age of Structure (seven categories)


Summary of new rates of loss

Summary of New Rates of Loss

  • 0.295% Total Annual Loss Rate

  • Mobile Homes: 1.580%

  • Houses or Apartments

    • 1990-2000: 0.058%

    • 1980-1990: 0.092%

    • 1970-1980: 0.100%

    • 1960-1970: 0.178%

    • 1950-1960: 0.224%

    • 1940-1950: 0.359%

    • Pre-1940: 0.395%


Summary of new rates of loss1

Summary of New Rates of Loss

  • Overall loss rate slightly lower than previous estimate

  • Loss rates generally lower in East and Midwest, higher in West


Evaluation of new loss rates

Evaluation of New Loss Rates

  • Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) for primitive geography universe decreased from 16.7% to 16.1%

  • MAPE improved for 42 of 50 states


Evaluation of new loss rates1

Evaluation of New Loss Rates

  • Places with the largest numerical decreases in housing loss

    • Chicago, IL

    • Baltimore, MD

    • San Francisco

    • Washington, DC

    • Kings County, NY (New York City)

    • New Orleans, LA

    • Cleveland, OH

    • Philadelphia, PA

    • New York County, NY (New York City)


Evaluation of new loss rates2

Evaluation of New Loss Rates

  • Places with the largest numerical increases in housing loss

    • Albuquerque, NM

    • Balance Of Prince Georges County, MD

    • Tucson, AZ

    • Balance of DeKalb County, GA

    • Balance of Honolulu County, HI

    • Balance of Pima County, AZ

    • Balance of Montgomery County, MD

    • Balance of Riverside County, CA

    • Honolulu CDP, HI

    • Mesa, AZ


Updates to new loss rates

Updates to New Loss Rates

  • Update every two years with new AHS data

  • Use of additional variables from AHS (eg. value of housing unit)


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