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Göteborg 25 November, 2009 Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay and IHS General Overview 2009 2010-2014

Göteborg 25 November, 2009 Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay and IHS General Overview 2009 2010-2014 Presented by: Christopher Pålsson Manager & Senior Consultant Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay Research. What We All “Know” …. Net fleet growth exceeds demand in most shipping sectors

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Göteborg 25 November, 2009 Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay and IHS General Overview 2009 2010-2014

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  1. Göteborg 25 November, 2009 • Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay and IHS • General Overview • 2009 • 2010-2014 • Presented by:Christopher PålssonManager & Senior ConsultantLloyd’s Register-Fairplay Research

  2. What We All “Know” …. • Net fleet growth exceeds demand in most shipping sectors • Downwards pressure on ship charter rates • Non-operative ship owners in distress • Downwards pressure on shipping rates, but… • Upwards correction to sustainable levels expected • Short lived temporary spikes likely • No tonnage shortage, but… • Changing market structures – M&A

  3. LRF Port Activity Indicator

  4. World fleet development

  5. New vessel deliveries

  6. Vessel removals

  7. Cancellations – no of vessels

  8. Cancellations – % of orderbook

  9. 6.6% pa 2004-2008 Total world fleet development

  10. 6.8% forecast 2009-2013 Total world fleet development

  11. New vessel ordering by month

  12. And it is in China it is happening

  13. Capacity supply absorption • Changing trade patterns • New networks/routes • Sourcing of cargo further away • Slow steaming & rerouting • Savings; bunker fuel & canal charges • Storage • Removals (scrapped & lost) • Already included in fleet forecast • Conversion • Idle • Warm or cold lay-up • Maintenance & repairs • Queing outside ports

  14. Why buy a new ship now? • Price • Spec • Lowest cost position • Delivery time • Employment & Speculation • The Godmother!

  15. New ship ordering – dwt

  16. New ship ordering – no of vessels

  17. New ship ordering – no of vessels

  18. North & Baltic Sea region

  19. Business Implications and the Bottom Line • Cargo Owners/Shippers • Generally low transport costs, but “nervous” rates • Unstable market conditions • Changing market organization • Treasure reliability! • Ship Owners & Operators • Very tough competition • Difficult financing • Newbuilding exposure? • Lowest cost per unit • Survival of the wealthiest

  20. Tack! Christopher Pålsson, Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay Research, research@lrfairplay.com

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