Global Threats Index

1. Meaningful Innovation for One World Global Threats Index

2. Expert Panels • Identify threats • Rate the level & trajectory of the threats • Identify both global and regional threats

3. Example Measures—threat level • Please indicate on the 10-point scale your judgment of the severity of each threat at this time: Ebola Low 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 High ISIS Low 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 High etc.

4. Example measures: threat trajectory • Please indicate on the 10-point scale your judgment of the trajectory of each threat over the next month. Do you expect the situation to improve, stay about the same, or worsen? Ebola Improve 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Worsen ISIS Improve 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Worsen etc.

5. Question 1 -Is the methodology valid and reliable? Validity—does it measure what it purports to measure? • Largely a function of whether the experts are “expert” Reliability—would another researcher get the same result using the same methodology? • largely a function of panel size

6. Question 2 - Who’s the intended audience? Not the experts But instead, scholars, journalists, observers, students, and citizens with an interest in global developments but not the time or background to assess their gravity

7. Question 3-When and how will it launch? • Early in 2015, after we have secured our panelists and conducted our first monthly survey. • Through weekly postings on BGF’s website—the global & regional surveys will be on a staggered timetable

8. Meaningful Innovation for One World Global Threats Index