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CHAPTER 4

CHAPTER 4. Model Management. 4.1 Meaning of Model. Description  present fact Graphic Model  DFD E-R Diagram Narrative Model  Natural language Physical Model  Iconic model Static and Dynamic Static Model  Financial Analysis Dynamic  Time dependent ( Number of counter).

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CHAPTER 4

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  1. CHAPTER 4 Model Management Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  2. 4.1 Meaning of Model • Description  present fact • Graphic Model  DFD E-R Diagram • Narrative Model  Natural language • Physical Model  Iconic model • Static and Dynamic • Static Model  Financial Analysis • Dynamic  Time dependent ( Number of counter) Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  3. 4.1 Meaning of Model • Mathematical Model • Optimization Model • Decision Table, Decision Tree • Linear programming Goal programming and Network model • Inventory control • Simulation • Heuristic • Financial Model • Statistic Model  Predictive Model Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  4. 4.1 Meaning of Model • Benefit of Model • Reduce the cost • Safety for human • Rapid to test • Make decision has efficiency and effective Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  5. 4.1 Meaning of Model • Tools for developed Model • Visual Studio • Power Builder • Delphi , JAVA • Spreadsheet  Excel Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  6. 4.2 Optimization Model • 4.2.1 Decision Tables • Condition for decision • Result for decision • Have 4 parts in table : • Condition • Alternative condition • Action • Rules Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  7. 4.2 Optimization Model • 4.2.1 Decision Tables : Example 1 Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  8. 4.2 Optimization Model • 4.2.1 Decision Tables : Example 1 Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  9. 4.2 Optimization Model • 4.2.2 Decision Tree • Use graphic for decision • Use for minimum alternative • Clear structure of alternative Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  10. 4.2 Optimization Model • 4.2.2 Decision Tree Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  11. 4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm • 4.3.1 Linear Programming : LP • Use for resource allocation • Determine the resource • Have constraint • Have objective function  Max or Min Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  12. 4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm • 4.3.1 Linear Programming : LP • Component of LP • Decision variable  Don’t know value • Objective function • Max or Min = A1X1 +A2X2 +…AnXn • Have constraint  b1,b2,…,bn • Determine that X1 ,X2 …, Xn > 0 Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  13. 4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm • 4.3.1 Linear Programming : LP • Example1 of LP Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  14. 4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm • 4.3.2 Network Models • Component of Network Model : • Transportation Problem • Assignment Problem • Shortest Path Problem Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  15. 4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm • 4.3.2 Network Models • Characteristics of Network Model : • Use tree for present relation • Have Arcs and Node • Arcs  route • Node  places Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  16. 4.3 Optimization Model by Algorithm • 4.3.2 Network Models : Example Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  17. 4.4 Optimization Model by formulation • 4.4.1 Inventory Model • Find Economic order Quantity : EOQ • 4.4.2 Transportation Model • Formulate transshipment problem Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  18. 4.5 Simulation Model • 4.5.1 Characteristic of Simulation • Can evaluate error • Reasonable • Reduce bias • Simulate than present real action Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  19. 4.6 Heuristic Model • 4.6.1 When the heuristic use • Entry data not certain • Complicated event • Can not use algorithm • Long time for process with simulation • Symbolic better than Numeric  Expert system Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  20. 4.6 Heuristic Model • 4.6.2 Type of heuristic model • Construction Heuristics • Improvement Heuristics • Mathematical Programming • Decomposition • Partition  combine later Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  21. 4.7 Financial Model • 4.7.1 Type of Financial Model • Goal Seek • Scenario Analysis • Data Table Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  22. 4.7 Financial Model • 4.7.1 Type of Financial Model • Goal Seek • ตัวอย่าง ต้องการหาราคารถคันใหม่ที่จะซื้อได้โดยมีเงื่อนไขดังต่อไปนี้ ต้องการจ่ายเงินดาวน์ 20% ของราคารถ กู้เงินจากธนาคารอัตราดอกเบี้ย 18% ต่อปี ระยะเวลาในการกู้ 4 ปี สามารถจ่ายชำระได้สูงสุดได้ไม่เกินงวดละ 10000 บาท Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  23. 4.7 Financial Model • 4.7.1 Type of Financial Model • Scenario • ตัวอย่าง ต้องการซื้อบ้านใหม่โดยมีราคาที่ตัดสินใจเลือกอยู่ 2 ราคาคือ 200000 และ 300000 บาท โดยมีเงื่อนไขดังต่อไปนี้ ต้องการจ่ายเงินดาวน์ 20% ของราคาบ้าน กู้เงินจากธนาคารอัตราดอกเบี้ย 7% ต่อปี ระยะเวลาในการกู้ 15 ปีและ 30 ปี ต้องการทราบจำนวนเงินที่จะต้องจ่ายในแต่ละงวด ? Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  24. Input Cells Result Cells Purchase Price Loan Payment 201,900 161,520 Down Payment Monthly Payment 20 % 1,185 Load Term Total Payment 426,664 360 Interest Rate Total Interest 224,764 8.00 % 4.7 Financial Model • 4.7.1 Type of Financial Model • Data Table • กำหนดตาราง 2 ตารางดังนี้ Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  25. 4.8 Statistical Model • 4.8.1 Type of Statistical Model • Marcov Analysis • Regression Analysis • Times Series Forecasting Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  26. 4.9 Others Model • 4.9.1 Queuing Model • Queuing Factor Analysis • Average Service Time • Average Service Time per Customer • Customer Satisfaction • Cost for service customer Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  27. 4.9 Others Model • 4.9.1 Queuing Model • Result from Queuing Analysis • Average Time for customer waiting • Average number Customer of customer in Queue • Number of Customer in service area Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  28. 4.9 Others Model • 4.9.1 Queuing Model • Kendall Notation • 1: Characteristic of System • M  Exponential Distribution • D  Deterministic 1/2/3 Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  29. 4.9 Others Model • 4.9.1 Queuing Model • Kendall Notation • 2: Characteristic of Service • M  Exponential Distribution • G  Discrete Value • D  Deterministic 1/2/3 Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  30. 4.9 Others Model • 4.9.1 Queuing Model • Kendall Notation • 3: Number of Service person 1/2/3 Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  31. 4.9 Others Model • 4.9.1 Queuing Model : Example โรงภาพยนต์แม่โจ้ ซีนีเพล็กมีบริการรับจองตั๋วทางโทรศัพท์ โดยมีลูกค้าเข้าจองตั๋วในอัตราเฉลี่ย 15 คนต่อชั่วโมง เป็นการแจกแจงพัวซอง ซึ่งมีพนักงานรับจองตั๋วเพียง 1 คนสามารถให้บริการเฉลี่ย 24 คนต่อชั่วโมงเวลาให้บริการเป็นแบบ exponential โดยเจ้าของมักได้รับคำตำหนิจากลูกค้าว่ารอสายนานมาก จึงอยากทราบว่าเวลาเฉลี่ยของลูกค้าในการถือสายรอเท่าไร ซึ่งถ้ามากกว่า 2 นาทีแล้วอยากทราบว่าต้องเพิ่มคนเท่าไรถึงจะทำให้เวลาการรอสายของลูกค้านั้นต่ำกว่า 2 นาทีได้ Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  32. 4.9 Others Model • 4.9.1 Queuing Model : Example Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  33. 4.10 Model Base Management System • 4.10.1 Meaning of MBMS • Connect between User and Model in DSS • Like DBMS in Database • Main function : Select Model • Use Artificial Intelligence to select Model Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

  34. Question ??? Decision Support System by Simulation Model (Ajarn Chat Chuchuen)

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