Burma

1. Burma

2. Burmese Statistics and History • Changed name from Burma to Myanmar on June 18, 1989 • Population of 52 million with one third of the population consisting of fifteen major ethnic groups and dozens of other minorities • Country characterized by ethnic conflict, economic stagnation, and political oppression • Won independence from Britain in 1948 – Independence movement included Thakin movement (led by Aung San, father of Aung San SuuKyi) and members of the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League

3. Burmese Statistics and History • 1948 – 1958 Time of Troubles – The Shans and Karens opposed movement toward a unified state and advocated autonomous states • Poorly trained civil service under U Nu failed to provide administrative skills necessary for socialist policies advocated by government • 1958 U Nu turned government over to the military (Tatmadaw). Ne Win government reorganized bureaucracy to make it more efficient and restored a semblance of law and order • 1960 electorate restored U Nu who focused on establishing Buddhism as state religion and implement a Burmese welfare state

4. Burmese Statistics and History • 1962 coup conducted by a military that perceived civilian government not up to the task of governing. Ne Win comes to power, expels ethnic Indian community, and eliminates infrastructure of Western parliamentary government in name of a Burmese Way to Socialism and establishes the Burmese Socialist Program Party • 1988 massive protests against the government in response to demonetization of the economy occur and government responds with show of force, killing thousands • State Law and Order Council established to suppress regime opponents • 1990 elections give victory to the National League of Democracy – Elections ignored by SLORC – Aung San SuuKyi received Nobel Peace Prize for standing up to regime – Parallel government formed to call for transfer of power to the lawfully elected • 1993 Constitutional convention convened but reinforced military rule • 1997 SLORC transformed into State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) – liberalized trade and investment that benefited state leaders • 2003 Depayin clash between government supporters and NLD sympathizers • 2006 relocated capital from Rangoon to Naypyitaw • 2007 spike in fuel prices ignited mass protests including the mobilization of the nations monks. Military uses violence to suppress protests • 2008 New constitution put up for referendum and voting held despite Cyclone Nargis that hit Burma inflicting 130,000 deaths. SPDC regime does not deal with crisis well and fails to allow aid from abroad into area until substantial pressure is placed on the regime – Regime is chided by ASEAN

5. Institutions and Social Groups • The Military – Aung San – Ne Win – Than Shwe – force grew from 190k in 1990s to 400k by 2008 – Doubled size of Naval fleet to 200 vessels – Primary ruling institution of the state • Legislature – PyithuHluttaw – unicameral legislative body previously elected by single member constituencies – twenty nine legislators selected to the council of state – planned reform to create bicameral legislature including upper houses representing states and lower house representing people – 25% of seats reserved for military with a 75% vote required for constitutional amendments • Political Parties – BSPP transformed into the National Unity Party in 1988 – National League for Democracy most important opposition party – leaders are often detained or put under house arrest – Union Solidarity and Development Association is the new political arm of the SPDC • Monks – 400,000 monks can bring pressure on regime but are fragmented • Minority Ethnic Groups – Karens, Karenni, Shans, Kachins and other groups have advocated for greater autonomy and support a federal system – Armed conflict characterized earlier phases of relationship and has moved toward tripartite diplomacy between the SPDC, the NLD, and the Ethnic Nationalities Council

6. Democratization • Ineffectiveness of early experiment with democracy rationalized military interventions in 1958 and 1962 • Military leaders emphasized Burmese political culture with an emphasis on hierarchy and status and rejected democratic traditions • Rebellions in 1988 and 2007 and recent moves toward democracy indicate that Burmese may be ready to reject rigid authoritarianism

7. Economic Development • Why has Thailand succeeded and Burma failed? • Burmese were colonized by British, whereas Thais maintained independence • Burma chose isolation, whereas Thailand chose integration – 2006 GDP = 3,000 for Thailand; GDP = 300 for Burma • The Burmese Way to Socialism repressed Chinese and Indian minorities who have played a key role in entrepreneurship in Southeast Asian economies – State planning is also notoriously inefficient leading to a dual economy and opportunities for corruption • Burma labeled least developed country in 1987 by UN • Political instability has failed to incent investors to enter and stay in economy – China has become a major investor • Export natural resources such as natural gas improve growth rates to 5-6% • Burma is ranked the most corrupt country according to Transparency International • Burma ranked below Cambodia and Laos on Human Development Index

8. The Burmese State • Poorly developed institutions outside the military • Integration of military into government reduced governmental capacity • Legitimacy of the military undermined by poor economic performance • Burma is a weak state

9. Foreign Policy • Burma shares borders with countries that have larger populations and stronger militaries including India, China, and Thailand… as well as having interior legitimacy contested by ethnic minorities • Non-alignment and isolationism has been Burma’s response to this situation • Tense relations with Thailand but concessions made to Thai business interests regarding Burmese teak forests – trade, drug eradication and offshore oil exploration are other aspects of this relation • Improving relations with Thailand, India, China, and Russia are boosting confidence of Burma’s regime • Clinton administration and Bush administration focused on Burma’s oppressive system though Obama administration are hoping to provide more effective policy to improve the conditions of the Burmese people – some improvements have been made including the recent election Aung San SuuKyi to parliament • Burma has had troubles in fitting in with ASEAN and has made organization’s non interference policy difficult to justify

10. Conclusion • Move from authoritarian military rule to democracy is problematic • Slow path to change most likely • Expanding USDA membership and extending client patron relations to wider circle is likely