1 / 23

Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth

Chapter Four. Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth. Key Concepts and Skills. Understand the financial planning process and how decisions are interrelated Be able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approach

brooks
Download Presentation

Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Chapter Four Long-Term Financial Planning and Growth

  2. Key Concepts and Skills • Understand the financial planning process and how decisions are interrelated • Be able to develop a financial plan using the percentage of sales approach • Understand the four major decision areas involved in long-term financial planning • Understand how capital structure policy and dividend policy affect a firm’s ability to grow

  3. Chapter Outline • What is Financial Planning? • Financial Planning Models: A First Look • The Percentage of Sales Approach • External Financing and Growth • Some Caveats Regarding Financial Planning Models

  4. Elements of Financial Planning • Investment in new assets – determined by capital budgeting decisions • Degree of financial leverage – determined by capital structure decisions • Cash paid to shareholders – dividend policy decisions • Liquidity requirements – determined by net working capital decisions

  5. Financial Planning Process • Planning Horizon - divide decisions into short-run decisions (usually next 12 months) and long-run decisions (usually 2 – 5 years) • Aggregation - combine capital budgeting decisions into one big project • Assumptions and Scenarios • Make realistic assumptions about important variables • Run several scenarios where you vary the assumptions by reasonable amounts • Determine at least a worst case, normal case and best case scenario

  6. Role of Financial Planning • Examining interactions – helps management see the interactions between decisions • Exploring options – gives management a systematic framework for exploring its opportunities • Avoiding surprises – helps management identify possible outcomes and plan accordingly • Ensuring Feasibility and Internal Consistency – helps management determine if goals can be accomplished and if the various stated (and unstated) goals of the firm are consistent with one another

  7. Financial Planning Model Ingredients • Sales Forecast – many cash flows depend directly on the level of sales (often estimated using a growth rate in sales) • Pro Forma Statements – setting up the plan as projected financial statements allows for consistency and ease of interpretation • Asset Requirements – how much additional fixed assets will be required to meet sales projections • Financial Requirements – how much financing will we need to pay for the required assets • Plug Variable – management decision about what type of financing will be used (makes the balance sheet balance) • Economic Assumptions – explicit assumptions about the coming economic environment

  8. Example: Historical Financial Statements

  9. Example: Pro Forma Income Statement • Initial Assumptions • Revenues will grow at 15% (2000*1.15) • All items are tied directly to sales and the current relationships are optimal • Consequently, all other items will also grow at 15%

  10. Example: Pro Forma Balance Sheet • Case I • Dividends are the plug variable, so equity increases at 15% • Dividends = 460 NI – 90 increase in equity = 370 • Case II • Debt is the plug variable and no dividends are paid • Debt = 1,150 – (600+460) = 90 • Repay 400 – 90 = 310 in debt

  11. Percent of Sales Approach • Some items tend to vary directly with sales, while others do not • Income Statement • Costs may vary directly with sales • If this is the case, then the profit margin is constant • Dividends are a management decision and generally do not vary directly with sales – this affects the retained earnings that go on the balance sheet • Balance Sheet • Initially assume that all assets, including fixed, vary directly with sales • Accounts payable will also normally vary directly with sales • Notes payable, long-term debt and equity generally do not because they depend on management decisions about capital structure • The change in the retained earnings portion of equity will come from the dividend decision

  12. Budget Process • Given forecasted sales, a constant profit margin and a specified dividend policy, what retained earnings can be expected? • Addition to retained earnings = PM * S(1+g) * b WHERE S = previous period's sales g = projected growth rate of sales A = pervious period's ending total assets PM = profit margin b = retention or plowback ratio • Dividend Payout Ratio: dividends/income • Rention/Plow back = 1-Div. Payout Ratio

  13. Example: Income Statement Dividend Payout Rate = 50% Assume Sales grow at 10%

  14. Example: Balance Sheet

  15. Example: External Financing Needed • The firm needs to come up with an additional $200 in debt or equity to make the balance sheet balance • TA – TL&OE = 10,450 – 10,250 = 200 • Choose plug variable • Borrow more short-term (Notes Payable) • Borrow more long-term (LT Debt) • Sell more common stock (CS & APIC) • Decrease dividend payout, which increase Add. To RE

  16. Example: Operating at Less than Full Capacity • Suppose that the company is currently operating at 80% capacity. • Full Capacity sales = 5000 / .8 = 6,250 • Estimated sales = $5,500, so would still only be operating at 88% • Therefore, no additional fixed assets would be required. • Pro forma Total Assets = 6,050 + 4,000 = 10,050 • Total Liabilities and Owners’ Equity = 10,250 • Choose plug variable • Repay some short-term debt (decrease Notes Payable) • Repay some long-term debt (decrease LT Debt) • Buy back stock (decrease CS & APIC) • Pay more in dividends (reduce Add. To RE) • Increase cash account

  17. Work the Web Example • Looking for estimates of company growth rates? • What do the analysts have to say? • Check out Yahoo Finance – click the web surfer, enter a company ticker and follow the “Research” link

  18. Growth and External Financing • At low growth levels, internal financing (retained earnings) may exceed the required investment in assets • As the growth rate increases, the internal financing will not be enough and the firm will have to go to the capital markets for money • Examining the relationship between growth and external financing required is a useful tool in long-range planning

  19. The Internal Growth Rate • The internal growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow assets using retained earnings as the only source of financing.

  20. The Sustainable Growth Rate • The sustainable growth rate tells us how much the firm can grow by using internally generated funds and issuing debt to maintain a constant debt ratio.

  21. Determinants of Growth • Profit margin – operating efficiency • Total asset turnover – asset use efficiency • Financial leverage – choice of optimal debt ratio • Dividend policy – choice of how much to pay to shareholders versus reinvesting in the firm

  22. Important Questions • It is important to remember that we are working with accounting numbers and ask ourselves some important questions as we go through the planning process • How does our plan affect the timing and risk of our cash flows? • Does the plan point out inconsistencies in our goals? • If we follow this plan, will we maximize owners’ wealth?

  23. Quick Quiz • What is the purpose of long-range planning? • What are the major decision areas involved in developing a plan? • What is the percentage of sales approach? • How do you adjust the model when operating at less than full capacity? • What is the internal growth rate? • What is the sustainable growth rate? • What are the major determinants of growth?

More Related