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ALARO in Romania

ALARO in Romania. Doina Banciu, Otilia Diaconu Romanian Meteorological Administration. ALARO ROMANIA. CY35T1. operational since 10 February 2010. Hydrostatic mode No data asimilation No SURFEX. 1.09. 2011: bugfix of February 2011 - SLHD not touched

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ALARO in Romania

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  1. ALARO in Romania Doina Banciu, Otilia Diaconu Romanian Meteorological Administration

  2. ALARO ROMANIA CY35T1 • operational since 10 February 2010 • Hydrostatic mode • No data asimilation • No SURFEX • 1.09. 2011: bugfix of February 2011 - SLHD not touched Not specific tuning for cloudiness and convection CY36T1 ∆x=6.5 km 240 x 240 points 49 vertical levels Linear grid Lambert projection 2TL-SL ∆t=240s • implemented (including bugfix of February 2011; in test CY37T1 • under implementation

  3. ALARO VERIFICATION • Statistical scores: T2m, V10m, MSLP - annual average for 2011 - average for 5 months 2012 - comparison with ALADIN, the back up solution - bias maps • Precipitation: subjective evaluation • Observations 160 surface synop stations 1000 precipitation measuremnt stations

  4. 2m Temperature 2011 2012 + 24 + 36 + 48 • Bias • cold seazon : negative, espeacilly during night (+ 24, +48 h) • ALARO is better than ALADIN ; exception February 2012 • warm seazon: positive • ALARO is better than ALADIN during day (+36); ALADIN is better during night • RMSE: • a bit smaller values during the warm season • almost anytime ALARO is better than ALADIN but very small diferences

  5. 23 May 2012 2Tm bias 00+24 00+36 6h precipitation 18→24 h 30→36 h

  6. 10m Wind speed 2011 2012 +24 +36 +48 • Bias: generaly negative during night and cold season • Small differences between ALARO and ALDIN

  7. 23 May 2012 10m wind speed bias 00+24 00+36

  8. MSLP 2011 2012 +24 +36 +48 • Generally negative bias • ALARO has better bias and rmse then ALADIN • Singular behaviour : April !!!

  9. Mean sea level pressure bias 24 May 2012 00+24 25 May 2012

  10. Precipitation Forecasters feedback: good ALARO behaviour, better than ALADIN ALARO is very good warning situation, being considered the most reliable However there are still problems: - the diurnal cycle - the displacement speed of the mezoscale convective systems - maximum value of the heavy precipitation - the are of light preciptitation too spead

  11. 2012 May 11May 12May 13 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations

  12. 2012 May 14May 15May 16 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations

  13. 2012 May 17May 18May 19 ! ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations

  14. 2012 May 21May 22May 23 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations

  15. 2012 May 24May 25May 26 ! ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations

  16. 2012 May 27May 28May 29 ! !! ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations

  17. 2012 May 30May 31June 1 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations

  18. 2012 June 2June 3June 4 ! ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations

  19. 2012 June 5June 6June 7 ! ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations

  20. ! !! 2012 June 8June 9June 10 ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation Observations

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