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CE 401 Climate Change Science and Engineering predictions from models global energy

CE 401 Climate Change Science and Engineering predictions from models global energy 22 February 2011. team selection and project topic proposal (paragraph): due today, electronically, to gmount@wsu.edu and blamb@wsu.edu exam on first half of class: 2.24.2011 Thurs

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CE 401 Climate Change Science and Engineering predictions from models global energy

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  1. CE 401 Climate Change Science and Engineering predictions from models global energy 22 February 2011 team selection and project topic proposal (paragraph): due today, electronically, to gmount@wsu.edu and blamb@wsu.edu exam on first half of class: 2.24.2011 Thurs review session for exam, today at 5:00PM, Sloan 150

  2. pre-warned questions for the exam on the 24th: • what is the average global percent increase in [CO2]/yr since 1959? • what is the solar energy input [w/m2] at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere? • what is the average albedo of the Earth [%]? • what is the solar cycle variability in solar output measured at top of Earth’s atmosphere? [%] • how many degrees is the Earth warmer with greenhouse gases than without? [°C] • what ~ percent of global carbon emissions stays in the Earth’s atmosphere? • what is the pre-industrial (1750) level of [CO2] [ppm]? • what is the current level of [CO2] [ppm]?

  3. possible topics for your project – you must have a strong engineering component/analysis: • carbon sequestration • energy efficiency • clean technologies • the technological solution • nuclear fusion • high performance buildings and green technologies • unconventional oil • fission nuclear • geothermal energy • solar photovoltaic • solar thermal • biomass • hydrogen economy • mitigation strategies in transportation, residential and commercial buildings, electric power • sector, industry, agriculture • ag sector – afforestation, forest management, soil carbon sequestration, biofuel offsets, • livestock management, nitrous oxide related soil management • title - the topic must address the engineering of climate change • what subject to you intend to address • why is the subject important to the engineering of climate change • do you have a hypothesis to propose concerning your subject

  4. exam next Thursday, 2.24.2011 There are the pre-warned questions, just memorize the answers and write down on the exam – I will make it worth your while to learn these important facts. There will be numerical questions on the exam – all equations will be given to you with constants. Review the homework and that should get you up on this curve. Solutions are on the website. There will be short answer type questions – explain something There will be several longer questions to see if you can synthesize the numerous charts and graphs that were presented in class.

  5. a quick look at global energy sources and projected demand

  6. The amount of carbon by weight emitted per unit of energy consumed. 2004 1970

  7. global energy production by type

  8. global GHG emissions (anthropogenic)

  9.  China/India to 2004

  10. 2009 2000 China 1600 USA 1200 Carbon Emissions per year (C tons x 1,000,000) 800 India Russian Fed. 400 Japan 0 93 97 99 03 05 1990 95 2001 2009 07 Time (y) Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010

  11. 1971 - 2003 by region; mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent

  12. Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009 6 2500 5 2000 4 1500 Per Capita Emissions(tons C person y-1) Total Carbon Emissions (tons x 1,000,000) 3 1000 2 500 1 0 0 USA IRAN INDIA ITALY CHINA SPAIN BRAZIL JAPAN RUSSIA MEXICO POLAND CANADA GERMANY AUSTRALIA INDONESIA SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH KOREA SOUTH AFRICA UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE (inl. Monaco) Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010

  13. Total global energy demand 70% increase (International Energy Outlook 2006)

  14. Energy use by type (International Energy Outlook 2006)

  15. Who has the oil? China USA India (http://www.energybulletin.net/37329.html)

  16. Hubbert’s curve

  17. 10 Observed Projected A1B Models Average 9 A1FI Models Average A1T Models Average A2 Models Average 8 B1 Models Average B2 Models Average Fossil Fuel Emission(PgCy-1) Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections 7 6 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Time (y) Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010;International Monetary Fund 2010

  18. discussion of climate change: • where are you on the warming question • where are you on the attribution of cause question • natural cause • human cause • obviously the attribution is a mixture, the question is how much of either • is climate change a manufactured question “existing only in the feverish imaginations of • environmental zealots”? • why is climate change so polarizing – it always seems to bring out the worst • how important do you think it is to act now with what you might consider insufficient evidence • the technological solution? • how would you advise a person in the Congress to vote on climate legislation • how important do you think it is to participate in “global solutions” • will the US be at a competitive disadvantage by adopting energy policies to limit GHG emissions • how should GHG emissions be limited • how do you feel about responsibility for the rising GHG concentration problem – developed • world and the developing world – ethics of climate change

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