The first full calibration of the phase 5 watershed model
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The First Full Calibration of the Phase 5 Watershed Model. Modeling Subcommittee 10/17/2006. Today’s Presentations. This Presentation Quick phase 5 overview Setup for the rest of the day’s presentations Rob Method of calculating calibration targets for land uses Jing

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The First Full Calibration of the Phase 5 Watershed Model

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The first full calibration of the phase 5 watershed model

The First Full Calibrationof thePhase 5 Watershed Model

Modeling Subcommittee

10/17/2006


Today s presentations

Today’s Presentations

  • This Presentation

    • Quick phase 5 overview

    • Setup for the rest of the day’s presentations

  • Rob

    • Method of calculating calibration targets for land uses

  • Jing

    • Method and results of land nutrient calibration

  • Me

    • Method and results of river WQ calibration

  • Rob

    • Phase 5 input and output visualization and summary tool (“the vortex”)


Collaborators chesapeake bay program

Collaborators – Chesapeake Bay Program

  • Lewis Linker – EPA – modeling coordinator

  • Gary Shenk – EPA – lead for phase 5 development

  • Jing Wu – University of Maryland – watershed modeler

  • Rob Burgholzer – University of Maryland – Nutrient data analyst

  • Kate Hopkins – University of Maryland - GIS analyst

  • Jeff Sweeney – University of Maryland – Nutrient data analyst

  • Peter Claggett – USGS – Land data manager

  • Sara Brandt – Chesapeake Research Consortium Fellow

  • Jim Hart – Chesapeake Research Consortium Fellow

  • Russ Mader – NRCS – Nutrient Coordinator

  • Kelly Shenk – EPA – Nutrient Coordinator

  • Ping Wang – Forest simulation

  • Steve Preston – USGS – Monitoring coordinator

  • STAC - review

  • Many, many people who participate in data gathering


Collaborators us geological survey

Collaborators – US Geological Survey

  • Maryland Office

    • Jeff Raffensperger – Project coordinator

    • Sarah Martucci – GIS analyst

    • Joe Vrabel – software engineer

    • Angelica Gutierrez – optimization specialist

    • Gary Fisher – precipitation data collection

  • Virginia Office

    • Doug Moyer – Project coordinator

    • Alan Simpson – river and reservoir morphology

    • Jen Krstolic – GIS analyst

    • Jeff Keaton – Model calibration

    • Jason Pope – Model calibration

  • Pennsylvania Office

    • Mike Langland – Water quality data

  • National

    • Lauren Hay – Precipitation Model


Collaborators state agencies

Collaborators – State Agencies

  • State Governments Supplying Data

    • NY, PA, MD, DE, WV, VA, and DC

  • State Governments Supplying Funding

    • MD and VA


Collaborators other

Collaborators – Other

  • Penn State –

    • Jim Lynch and Jeff Grimm

      • Atmospheric Deposition model

    • Scott Sheeder, Barry Evans and Egide Louis

      • Urban load model

  • Interstate Commission for the Potomac River Basin

    • Ross Mandel – project coordinator

    • Julie Kiang – hydrologic model calibration support


The first full calibration of the phase 5 watershed model

Increase in Segmentation to get meaningful output at the trib strategy level and below


Better input data for accuracy

Land Use Acreage

BMPs

Fertilizer

Manure

Atmospheric Deposition

Point Sources

Septic Loads

Rainfall

Temperature

Evapotranspiration

Wind

Solar Radiation

Dewpoint

Cloud Cover

Better input data for accuracy


Better software possible to run model ease of scenario implementation increased accuracy

WDM = HSPF-specific binary file type

UCI = User Controlled Input (input file)

Model Software Structure

Better SoftwarePossible to run modelEase of scenario implementationIncreased accuracy

MET

WDM

ATDEP

WDM

PS

WDM

Land Input File Generator

River Input File Generator

4

1

External

Transfer

Module

2

3

5

Land variable

WDM

River variable

WDM

Final Text

Output

6


The first full calibration of the phase 5 watershed model

  • Model Structure

  • Files

External

Transfer

Module

3

Automated Calibration

  • Makes Calibration Feasible

  • Ensures even treatment across jurisdictions

  • Enables uncertainty analysis

  • Fully documented calibration strategy

  • Repeatable


Improved interfaces

Improved Interfaces


Improved interfaces1

Improved Interfaces


Improved interfaces2

Improved Interfaces


Community model

Community Model

  • Entire model available on web

    • Input data

    • HSPF

    • Phase 5 system

  • Already in Use

    • Community model in Climate Change Study

    • Community model at ICPRB

    • Phase 5 output in Potomac PCB TMDL

    • Phase 5 information in MDE TMDLs

    • Phase 5 information in USGS Watershed Study


Today s presentations1

Today’s Presentations

  • This Presentation

    • Quick phase 5 overview

    • Setup for the rest of the day’s presentations

  • Rob

    • Method of calculating calibration targets for land uses

  • Jing

    • Method and results of land nutrient calibration

  • Me

    • Method and results of river WQ calibration

  • Rob

    • Phase 5 input and output visualization and summary tool (“the vortex”)


Land calibration 2 types

Land Calibration – 2 types

  • AGCHEM –

    • Mass Balance / Reaction Rate Based Mechanistic Simulation

    • Responsive to inputs and uptake

  • PQUAL

    • Empirical, coefficient-based simulation

    • Sensitive to hydrology and sediment only


The first full calibration of the phase 5 watershed model

Export

Export

Export

Export

Export

Export

Export

AGCHEM simulation

After HSPF documentation

Trees

Denitrification

Roots

Leaves

Nitrate

Atmospheric Deposition

Particulate

Particulate

Solution

Labile

Refractory

Ammonia

Organic N

Organic N

Solution

Solution

Adsorbed

Labile

Refractory

Ammonia

Organic N

Organic N


Pqual iqual simulation

PQUAL / IQUAL Simulation

NH3 = flow * conc +

sed * factor

SURFACE

INTERFLOW

NH3 = flow * conc

Groundwater

NH3 = flow * conc


Land use simulation

Land Use simulation


Automated calibration of agchem land uses

Automated Calibration ofAGCHEM Land Uses

  • First Calibration of this type of HSPF

  • First long-term AGCHEM calibration with full simulation of nutrient storages

  • Scope

    • 308 land segments

    • 12 AGCHEM land uses

      • (+ 6 nutrient management)

    • 8 load endpoints

    • = 29568 Targets

  • Calibrating at 10 land uses per day, This would take a year with no weekends or vacation


Automated calibration of pqual land uses

Automated Calibration ofPQUAL Land Uses

  • Not aware of this type of calibration but probably has predecessors

  • Scope

    • 308 land segments

    • 7 PQUAL / IQUAL land uses

    • 8 load endpoints

    • = 17248 Targets

  • Possible to calibrate to all targets in a single day


Automated river calibration

Automated River Calibration

  • First Calibration of this type of HSPF

  • Scope

    • 100 river calibration stations

    • 8 concentration endpoints

    • 800 Targets

  • Calibrating at 2 stations per day, This would take two months with no weekends or vacation


Automated calibration

Automated Calibration

  • Makes Calibration Feasible

  • Ensures even treatment across jurisdictions

  • Enables uncertainty analysis

  • Fully documented calibration strategy

  • Repeatable


Status for today

Status for Today

  • Calibration methodsare good, but still some improvements available

    • River calibration oscillation.

    • Forest stability over time.

    • River TOC method not implemented

  • Calibration dataare close to final, but some improvements available

    • Error in TP Target

    • New land use consistent with FIA and urban modeling?

    • TN:TP balance


Schedule

Schedule

  • Today – First overall calibration. Methodology close to final

  • Nov 14 – Scoping Scenarios presented to Water Quality Steering Committee

  • January 2007 – Calibration Update

  • April 2007 – Calibration Update

  • July 2007 – Final Calibration

  • January 2008 – Approved for management use


Today s presentations2

Today’s Presentations

  • Rob

    • Method of calculating calibration targets for land uses

  • Jing

    • Method and results of land nutrient calibration

  • Me

    • Method and results of river WQ calibration

  • Rob

    • Phase 5 input and output visualization and summary tool (“the vortex”)


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