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How risk assessors and risk managers have utilized available data to support decision making Listeria and Vibrio Risk Assessment Examples. Risk Assessment Consortium Data Collection and Utilization in Risk Assessment and Management Decisions Richard Whiting CFSAN.

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How risk assessors and risk managers have utilized available data to support decision makingListeria and Vibrio Risk Assessment Examples

Risk Assessment Consortium

Data Collection and Utilization in Risk Assessment and Management Decisions

Richard Whiting

CFSAN

ideal solution for data quality and utility
Ideal solution for data quality and utility
  • Conduct preliminary quantitative risk assessment
  • Identify critical data gaps (quality, utility)
  • Collect data
  • Complete risk assessment
relevancy
Relevancy
  • How pertinent is this data to this particular risk assessment?
    • Survey studies
      • Place
      • Time
treatment of lm contamination data
Treatment of Lm Contamination Data
  • Weight by number of samples
  • Weight by year

(≤1993, 94-98, ≥ 99:

0.4, 0.7, 1.0)

  • Weight by country

US, developed countries, importing countries vs others (1.0, 0.3)

  • No recent data

Adjust by total food supply data

relevancy of microbial data
Relevancy of microbial data
  • Always a question
    • Strains used, selectivity/specificity of methods
    • Lab/pilot plant ~ commercial
    • Composition of product

17 growth in deli meat data sets included

Corned beef

Cooked ham

Vacuum packed ham

Bologna

Sliced chicken/turkey

Turkey loaf

Cooked chicken

Roast beef

Growth in franks with lactate-diacetate not included

uncertainty
Uncertainty
  • Should be added to data
home storage times for refrigerated frankfurters and deli meats ami survey 2001
Home storage times for refrigerated frankfurters and deli meats—AMIsurvey, 2001

Average time Fraction

1 to 3 days 0.32

4 to 7 0.37

8 to 10 0.06

11 to 14 0.04

15 to 21 0.01

22 to 30 0.01

31 to 60 0.01

> 60 0.00

30

0

10

20

Storage time

three dose response models for v p fitted to data

1

0.1

0.01

Gompertz

Probability of Gastroenteritis

0.001

Probit

0.0001

0.00001

Beta-Poisson

Human Feeding Trials Data

0.000001

Mean Ingested Dose (cfu)

Three dose-response models for V. p. fitted to data
uncertainty for v p dose response beta poisson model
Uncertainty for V.p.Dose-response Beta Poisson Model

1.0

0.8

0.6

Probability of Illness

0.4

0.2

0.0

4

6

8

10

12

Mean Dose (log cfu per Exposure)

uncertainty and data quality
Uncertainty and Data Quality
  • 2-way Risk assessment

6 - 10

15 - 45

data quality and utility
Data Quality and Utility
  • Are data good enough for the RM to use the RA to reach a conclusion or are the uncertainties too great?

4

Listeriosis cases per year

3

2

1

Total Cases Listeriosis per Annum

(log scale)

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

F

V

P

IC

UM

CD

HC

RS

CR

SS

FR

PF

PC

DS

DM

PM

FSC

HFD

FNR

SUC

DFS

SSC

SRC

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