How risk assessors and risk managers have utilized available data to support decision making
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How risk assessors and risk managers have utilized available data to support decision making Listeria and Vibrio Risk Assessment Examples. Risk Assessment Consortium Data Collection and Utilization in Risk Assessment and Management Decisions Richard Whiting CFSAN.

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How risk assessors and risk managers have utilized available data to support decision makingListeria and Vibrio Risk Assessment Examples

Risk Assessment Consortium

Data Collection and Utilization in Risk Assessment and Management Decisions

Richard Whiting

CFSAN


A risk assessment is what you do when the data are less than ideal


Finding data for a risk assessment is a lot like a scavenger hunt


Ideal solution for data quality and utility

  • Conduct preliminary quantitative risk assessment

  • Identify critical data gaps (quality, utility)

  • Collect data

  • Complete risk assessment


  • Relevancy ~ Data Utility

  • Uncertainty


Relevancy

  • How pertinent is this data to this particular risk assessment?

    • Survey studies

      • Place

      • Time


Geographic and temporal factors for V. parahaemolyticus


CDC FoodNet and NFPA Contamination Data


Treatment of Lm Contamination Data

  • Weight by number of samples

  • Weight by year

    (≤1993, 94-98, ≥ 99:

    0.4, 0.7, 1.0)

  • Weight by country

    US, developed countries, importing countries vs others (1.0, 0.3)

  • No recent data

    Adjust by total food supply data


Relevancy of microbial data

  • Always a question

    • Strains used, selectivity/specificity of methods

    • Lab/pilot plant ~ commercial

    • Composition of product

      17 growth in deli meat data sets included

      Corned beef

      Cooked ham

      Vacuum packed ham

      Bologna

      Sliced chicken/turkey

      Turkey loaf

      Cooked chicken

      Roast beef

      Growth in franks with lactate-diacetate not included


Uncertainty

  • Should be added to data


Home storage times for refrigerated frankfurters and deli meats—AMIsurvey, 2001

Average timeFraction

1 to 3 days0.32

4 to 7 0.37

8 to 10 0.06

11 to 14 0.04

15 to 210.01

22 to 300.01

31 to 600.01

> 600.00

30

0

10

20

Storage time


1

0.1

0.01

Gompertz

Probability of Gastroenteritis

0.001

Probit

0.0001

0.00001

Beta-Poisson

Human Feeding Trials Data

0.000001

Mean Ingested Dose (cfu)

Three dose-response models for V. p. fitted to data


Uncertainty for V.p.Dose-response Beta Poisson Model

1.0

0.8

0.6

Probability of Illness

0.4

0.2

0.0

4

6

8

10

12

Mean Dose (log cfu per Exposure)


Uncertainty and Data Quality

  • 2-way Risk assessment

6 - 10

15 - 45


Low variation, low uncertainty


High variation, low uncertainty


Low variation, high uncertainty


High variation, high uncertainty


Data Quality and Utility

  • Are data good enough for the RM to use the RA to reach a conclusion or are the uncertainties too great?

4

Listeriosis cases per year

3

2

1

Total Cases Listeriosis per Annum

(log scale)

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

F

V

P

IC

UM

CD

HC

RS

CR

SS

FR

PF

PC

DS

DM

PM

FSC

HFD

FNR

SUC

DFS

SSC

SRC


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