How risk assessors and risk managers have utilized available data to support decision making
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How risk assessors and risk managers have utilized available data to support decision making Listeria and Vibrio Risk Assessment Examples. Risk Assessment Consortium Data Collection and Utilization in Risk Assessment and Management Decisions Richard Whiting CFSAN.

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Risk assessment consortium

How risk assessors and risk managers have utilized available data to support decision makingListeria and Vibrio Risk Assessment Examples

Risk Assessment Consortium

Data Collection and Utilization in Risk Assessment and Management Decisions

Richard Whiting

CFSAN


Risk assessment consortium

A risk assessment is what you do when the data are less than ideal


Risk assessment consortium

Finding data for a risk assessment is a lot like a scavenger hunt


Ideal solution for data quality and utility

Ideal solution for data quality and utility

  • Conduct preliminary quantitative risk assessment

  • Identify critical data gaps (quality, utility)

  • Collect data

  • Complete risk assessment


Risk assessment consortium

  • Relevancy ~ Data Utility

  • Uncertainty


Relevancy

Relevancy

  • How pertinent is this data to this particular risk assessment?

    • Survey studies

      • Place

      • Time


Geographic and temporal factors for v parahaemolyticus

Geographic and temporal factors for V. parahaemolyticus


Cdc foodnet and nfpa contamination data

CDC FoodNet and NFPA Contamination Data


Treatment of lm contamination data

Treatment of Lm Contamination Data

  • Weight by number of samples

  • Weight by year

    (≤1993, 94-98, ≥ 99:

    0.4, 0.7, 1.0)

  • Weight by country

    US, developed countries, importing countries vs others (1.0, 0.3)

  • No recent data

    Adjust by total food supply data


Relevancy of microbial data

Relevancy of microbial data

  • Always a question

    • Strains used, selectivity/specificity of methods

    • Lab/pilot plant ~ commercial

    • Composition of product

      17 growth in deli meat data sets included

      Corned beef

      Cooked ham

      Vacuum packed ham

      Bologna

      Sliced chicken/turkey

      Turkey loaf

      Cooked chicken

      Roast beef

      Growth in franks with lactate-diacetate not included


Uncertainty

Uncertainty

  • Should be added to data


Home storage times for refrigerated frankfurters and deli meats ami survey 2001

Home storage times for refrigerated frankfurters and deli meats—AMIsurvey, 2001

Average timeFraction

1 to 3 days0.32

4 to 7 0.37

8 to 10 0.06

11 to 14 0.04

15 to 210.01

22 to 300.01

31 to 600.01

> 600.00

30

0

10

20

Storage time


Three dose response models for v p fitted to data

1

0.1

0.01

Gompertz

Probability of Gastroenteritis

0.001

Probit

0.0001

0.00001

Beta-Poisson

Human Feeding Trials Data

0.000001

Mean Ingested Dose (cfu)

Three dose-response models for V. p. fitted to data


Uncertainty for v p dose response beta poisson model

Uncertainty for V.p.Dose-response Beta Poisson Model

1.0

0.8

0.6

Probability of Illness

0.4

0.2

0.0

4

6

8

10

12

Mean Dose (log cfu per Exposure)


Uncertainty and data quality

Uncertainty and Data Quality

  • 2-way Risk assessment

6 - 10

15 - 45


Risk assessment consortium

Low variation, low uncertainty


Risk assessment consortium

High variation, low uncertainty


Risk assessment consortium

Low variation, high uncertainty


Risk assessment consortium

High variation, high uncertainty


Data quality and utility

Data Quality and Utility

  • Are data good enough for the RM to use the RA to reach a conclusion or are the uncertainties too great?

4

Listeriosis cases per year

3

2

1

Total Cases Listeriosis per Annum

(log scale)

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

F

V

P

IC

UM

CD

HC

RS

CR

SS

FR

PF

PC

DS

DM

PM

FSC

HFD

FNR

SUC

DFS

SSC

SRC


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