National wind generation picture
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National Wind Generation Picture. Outline. US energy today Legislative landscape The future Long-term national planning Conclusions. US energy today: Existing US resource mix by capacity. Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report. US energy today: Retail Prices - 2007. US energy today:

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National wind generation picture

National Wind Generation Picture


Outline

Outline

US energy today

Legislative landscape

The future

Long-term national planning

Conclusions


National wind generation picture

  • US energy today:

  • Existing US resource mix by capacity

Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report


National wind generation picture

  • US energy today:

  • Retail Prices - 2007


National wind generation picture

  • US energy today:

  • US wind capacity historical growth

Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report


National wind generation picture

1. US energy today:

Wind capacity by state

Source: AWEA Website: www.awea.org


National wind generation picture

1. US energy today:

Wind capacity and 2008 growth by state

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Source: AWEA Website: www.awea.org


National wind generation picture

  • US energy today:

  • Wind % capacity by state

Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report


National wind generation picture

  • US energy today:

  • Market share of total US wind fleet

Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report


National wind generation picture

  • US energy today:

  • Market share of 2008 wind installations

Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report


National wind generation picture

  • US energy today:

  • Ownership by company and by utility

Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report


National wind generation picture

  • US energy today:

  • Power purchase agreements+ownership

Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report


National wind generation picture

  • US energy today:

  • Wind plant size

Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report


National wind generation picture

2. Legislative landscape: Renewable portfolio standards (on energy)

  • 29 states, differing in % (10-40), timing (latest is 2030), eligible technologies/resources (all include wind)

WA: 15% by 2020*

ME: 30% by 2000

New RE: 10% by 2017

VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017

MN: 25% by 2025

(Xcel: 30% by 2020)

MT: 15% by 2015

  • NH: 23.8% by 2025

ND: 10% by 2015

MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015*

  • MA: 15% by 2020+1% annual increase(Class I Renewables)

  • OR: 25% by 2025(large utilities)*

    5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)

SD: 10% by 2015

WI: Varies by utility; 10% by 2015 goal

  • NY: 24% by 2013

RI: 16% by 2020

CT: 23% by 2020

  • NV: 25% by 2025*

IA: 105 MW

  • OH: 25% by 2025†

  • CO: 20% by 2020(IOUs)

    10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*

  • PA: 18% by 2020†

WV: 25% by 2025*†

  • IL: 25% by 2025

  • NJ: 22.5% by 2021

CA: 33% by 2020

UT: 20% by 2025*

KS: 20% by 2020

VA: 15% by 2025*

  • MD: 20% by 2022

  • MO: 15% by 2021

  • AZ: 15% by 2025

  • DE: 20% by 2019*

  • NC: 12.5% by 2021(IOUs)

    10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis)

  • DC: 20% by 2020

  • NM: 20% by 2020(IOUs)

  • 10% by 2020 (co-ops)

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

29 states & DChave an RPS

6 states have goals

HI: 40% by 2030

State renewable portfolio standard

Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement

*

State renewable portfolio goal

Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables

Solar water heating eligible

Includes non-renewable alternative resources


National wind generation picture

2. Legislative landscape:

Tax incentives

  • Federal Incentives:

    • Renewed incentives Feb 2009 through 12/31/12, via ARRA

    • 2.1 cents per kilowatt-hour PTC,or 30% investment tax credit (ITC)

  • State incentives:

    • IA: 1.5¢/kWhr, small wind, Utah, Oklahoma,

    • Various other including sales & property tax reductions


National wind generation picture

2. Legislative landscape:

Federal, congressional bills

See http://www.grist.org/article/2009-06-03-waxman-markey-bill-breakdown/


National wind generation picture

2. Legislative Landscape

Building Transmission

$60 billion AEP plan

Joint Coordinated System Plan (20%wind). Cost: $82 billion (2024 $)


National wind generation picture

2. Legislative Landscape

Building Transmission

  • Multi-state transmission is very difficult

  • FERC’s authority – national interest corridors

  • Regional efforts

    • 2008: Uppr Mdwst Trns Dvlpmnt Initiative: MN,ND,SD,IA,WI

    • 2008: Joint Coord Sys Planning: MISO, PJM, SPP, TVA, MAPP

    • 2010: DOE transmission planning grants:

      • Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative: PJM, NYISO, ISO-NE, MISO, SoCo, TVA, MAPP, Entergy

      • WECC: Most of the western companies

  • Will FERC mandate if a state rejects T-plans?


National wind generation picture

3. The future:

US wind potential by state

Annual wind energy potential (1012 w-hrs)

Annual wind energy potential

R= ------------------------------------------

2006 state annual retail sales

States with high production and R-ratio have high export potential

(Montana, Dakotas, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas)

Analysis assumes (a) only sites having capacity factor > 20% included; (a) loss of 20% and 10% of potential power for onshore and offshore, respectively, caused by interturbine interference, (c) offshore siting distance within 50 nm (92.6 km) of nearest shoreline.

Source: Xi Lua, M. McElroya, and J. Kiviluomac, “Global potential for wind-generated electricity,” Proc. of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009, www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0904101106.


National wind generation picture

3. The future:

US wind potential

  • Total 2008 US Energy consumption across all sectors is 100 Quads:

Source: Xi Lua, M. McElroya, and J. Kiviluomac, “Global potential for wind-generated electricity,” Proc. of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009, www.pnas.orgcgidoi10.1073pnas.0904101106.


National wind generation picture

Long-term national planning:

How wind fits in


National wind generation picture

Energy system: Electric, Fuels, Transportation

LIQUID FUEL

NATURAL GAS

ELECTRIC

RAIL

Interstate

AIR


National wind generation picture

Energy system: Today

US ENERGY USE IS 69% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION

GREENING ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION ENERGY SOLVES THE EMISSIONS PROBLEM

US CO2 EMISSIONS IS 74% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION


National wind generation picture

Energy system: Today

Electric Generation

39.97

Solar, 0.09

Unused Energy (Losses)

57.07

8.45

12.68

Nuclear, 8.45

27.39

6.82

20.54

Hydro, 2.45

Wind, 0.51

Residential

11.48

Geothermal 0.35

Natural Gas 23.84

Used Energy

42.15

Commercial

8.58

Industrial

23.94

Coal

22.42

8.58

20.9

Biomass 3.88

Trans-portation

27.86

Petroleum

37.13

26.33

6.95

LightDuty: 17.12Q

Freight: 7.55Q

Aviation: 3.19Q

24


National wind generation picture

Energy System: Transport goes electric!

A modified French high-speed train has set a new world speed record for a train on conventional rails of 357 mph.

World's first all-electric locomotive has over 1,000 batteries, runs 24 hours on a single charge.

Warren Buffet's MidAmerican Energy Holdings bought 9.9% of BYD for $232 million.


National wind generation picture

INCREASE Non-CO2

12Q to 30Q

USE 11Q Electric for transportation

4.5Q

A possible future

Electric Generation

49.72

Solar, 1.0

Unused Energy (Losses)

43.0

15

12.68

Nuclear, 15

25.7

6.82

20.54

Hydro, 2.95

Wind, 8.1

Residential

11.48

Geothermal 3.04

REDUCE COAL 21Q TO 12Q

Natural Gas 23.84

Used Energy

42.15

Commercial

8.58

IGCC, 3

Industrial

23.94

Old Coal

10.42

8.58

8.5

Biomass 3.88

Trans-portation

15.5

Petroleum

15.13

26.33

6.95

REDUCE PETROLEUM 37Q15Q

LightDuty: 8.56Q

Freight: 3.75Q

Aviation: 3.19Q


National wind generation picture

Total US 2007 GHG

If we achieve this worldwide by 2035, there is a 75% chance of not exceeding the 2 degree guardrail.

Infrastructure planning: Environmental Impacts

22Quads Petroleum reduction×156.4lbs/MBTU*0.4535=1560 MMT CO2

12Q Old Coal reduction×212.7lbs/MBTU*0.4535=1157 MMT CO2

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TOTAL CO2 REDUCTION= 2717 MMT CO2


National wind generation picture

Infrastructure planning: Unit Costs

*Environmental cost s assumed to be $1.5/MWhr, for nuclear, $3/MWhr

for conventional coal, and $1.5/MWhr for clean coal.


National wind generation picture

Infrastructure planning: Solution Cost


National wind generation picture

Infrastructure planning: Solution explanation

Why do we reduce production cost and emissions?

Coal-fired power plants

Because we reduced the use of combustion!

Internal combustion engines


National wind generation picture

Infrastructure planning: more questions

GEOTHERMAL

SOLAR

CLEAN-FOSSIL

Where, when, & how to interconnect?

NUCLEAR

BIOMASS

Wind


National wind generation picture

Conclusions

Wind resource not large player today.

Legislative landscape intent on changing that.

US wind energy potential: could supply 2ב08 total (100Q) energy consumption.

Wind must be a major player in economic solutions to global warming.

710 GW of wind by 2035, plus a little of all other non-CO2 resources, represents US contribution towards a feasible solution to global warming.


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