Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project
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Ageing, health and retirement in the EU What have we learned from the AGIR Project. N. Ahn, R. Génova, J. A. Herce and J. Pereira ENEPRI – European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes FEDEA – Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada www.enepri.org – www.fedea.es [email protected]

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Ageing, health and retirement in the EU What have we learned from the AGIR Project

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Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

Ageing, health and retirement in the EUWhat have we learned from the AGIR Project

N. Ahn, R. Génova, J. A. Herce and J. Pereira

ENEPRI – European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes

FEDEA – Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada

www.enepri.org – www.fedea.es

[email protected]

10th March 2005

Are we living longer and in better health?

The AGIR project - WP1

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

  • Structure of the presentation:

  • Population, births and mortality since 1950

  • Longevity

  • Lifecourses

  • Health and disability

  • Ageing and health

  • Concluding comments

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

1. Population I

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

1. Population II

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

1. Births I

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

1. Births II

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

1. Mortality I

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

1. Mortality II

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

1. Mortality III

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

2. Longevity I

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

2. Longevity II

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

2. Longevity III

Jeanne Calment (1997)

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

2. Longevity IV

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

3. Lifecourses

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

4. Health and disability I

Problems with self assessed health status

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

4. Health and disability II

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

4. Health and disability III

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

4. Health and disability IV

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

4. Health and disability V

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

4. Health and disability VI

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

4. Health and disability VII

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

4. Health and disability VIII

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

5. Ageing and health I

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

5. Ageing and health II

Predicting LEGH trhough LE? (Males at 15)

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

5. Ageing and health III

Predicting LEGH trhough LE? (Females at 15)

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

5. Ageing and health IV

  • Two scenarios for Adjusted LEs:

  • CRM or “Constant Relative Morbidity: It implies keeping constant the ratio of years lived in good health (or bad health or free of disability) to the number of years lived (Stable weights)

  • CAM or “Constant Absolute Morbidity: It implies equating any gain in life expectancy (in years) to an equal number of years lived in good health (or free of disability) (Compression Hypothesis)

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

5. Ageing and health V

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

5. Ageing and health VI

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

6. Concluding comments

  • European populations have been ageing since the first demographic transition ended before mid of XX century. The “second demographic transition” has made ageing more apparent. Survival has increased considerably and will be the leading driver of future ageing.

  • Longevity has been the result of compressed mortality rather than of extended limit to human life. Whether life endurance increases steadily, survivors ratios at extreme ages have increased manifold in last decades.

  • Lifecourses have evolved thus that number of working years is becoming closer to number of years after leaving activity. This heralds a much distorted future balance between “assets” and “liabilities”, or resources and needs of any kind (pensions, health, dependency) both at individual and aggregate levels.

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


Ageing health and retirement in the eu what have we learned from the agir project

6. Concluding comments

  • Assessing health status is a puzzle. Countries compare badly and time trends are difficult to discern from either national health surveys or the ECHP. However, there is a general pattern of health (or disability) adjusted life years keeping track with gains in unadjusted life expectancies.

  • A sophisticated projection of adjusted life expectancies cannot be done on the basis of the data available. Rather what can be done is to build scenarios that do not contradict plainly observed trends. Both CRM or CAM scenarios show that as life expectancy of Europeans increases, few more years free of health or disability impairments could also be at their hand. But that is not granted.

The AGIR Conference - Brussels


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