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2010 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast. 19 May 2010. Chris Kunstadter Senior Vice President XL Insurance [email protected] Cover art by John Sloan/FAA. Agenda. Membership and Methodology Statistics Market Assessment and Trends Summary. Working Group Members.

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2010 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

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2010 commercial gso demand forecast l.jpg

2010 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

19 May 2010

Chris Kunstadter

Senior Vice President

XL Insurance

[email protected]

Cover art by John Sloan/FAA


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Agenda

  • Membership and Methodology

  • Statistics

  • Market Assessment and Trends

  • Summary


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Working Group Members

Kevin Reyes (2010 GSO Forecast Chair) Boeing

John SloanFAA AST

Ken DavidianFAA AST

Lisa HagueAerospace Corp.

Jeanne BeesleyBoeing

Jozsef LoreBoeing

Deborah Facktor LeporeDFL Space

David KeslowOrbital

Peter StierSea Launch

Tom MonroeSpace Systems/Loral

Alan KeisnerSpaceX

Jennifer MicelliTecolote Research

Veronica JohnsonUnited Launch Alliance

Chris KunstadterXL Insurance


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Forecast Methodology

  • Purpose

    • To determine the GSO satellite launch market addressable by commercial launch vehicles under the FAA’s licensing regime and by the US launch industry in general

  • Information requested of ~90 satellite operators, satellite manufacturers and launch providers,

    • 14 companies responded in 2010 (21 in 2009; 29 in 2008)

      • Disappointing participation trend

        • Many satellite procurements in process

      • Individual and comprehensive responses

      • International competitive procurements only


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Forecast Methodology (cont’d)

  • Questionnaire on factors affecting satellite procurement plans

    • 11 satellite operators responded in 2010 (13 in 2009; 17 in 2008)

      • 5 new responders in 2010

      • 3 operators responded in both 2009 and 2010

  • Sort satellites by mass categories

    • Small< 2,500 kg

    • Medium2,500 to 4,200 kg

    • Large4,200 to 5,400 kg

    • Extra Large> 5,400 kg

  • Determine satellite demand by launch vehicle

    • Near-term manifest (2010-2012)

    • Long-term forecast (2013-2019)


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Forecast Sensitivities

  • Numerous factors impact launch forecast

    • Satellite and launch vehicle-related technical issues

    • Scheduling (dual manifesting / range availability / launch site weather)

    • New launch vehicles

    • Business planning / financing

    • Regulatory / licensing issues

    • Hosted payloads

    • ITAR-free satellites

  • Realization factor assesses previous forecasts

    • Variation of historical actual satellites / launches vs. forecasted demand over 5-year rolling period

    • Realization factor applied to near-term forecast of future activity


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2010 Demand Forecast Summary

2010 forecast essentially unchanged from 2009 forecast

Average 20.7 satellites per year

Average 15.7 launches per year


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Split Of Satellites By Launch Vehicle - 2010

Soyuz

1 Satellite

(1 LV)

Proton

8 Satellites

(8 LVs)

Ariane

11 Satellites

(6 LVs)


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Realization Factor


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Mass Category Forecast


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Dual Launch Forecast


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2009-2010 Forecast Comparison


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Comparison of Last 10 Years’ Forecasts

Forecast:

Last four reports show consistent results


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Satellite Operator Market Assessment


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Forecast Trends

  • Near term (Years 1 to 3)

    • Satellites – stable

    • Launch demand – slight increase in 2011 reflecting lower pace in 2010

      • Natural “bow wave”

    • Satellite mass – some redistribution, but generally stable

    • Transponders per satellite – moderate decrease

  • Long term (Years 4 to 10)

    • Satellites – consistent with history (~20 satellites/year)

    • Launch demand – consistent with history (~15 launches/year)

      • Natural decrease over time with lack of information


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Forecast Summary

  • Ten-year projected average annual demand of 20.7 satellites on 15.7 launches is stable, and consistent with prior years

  • Global economic recovery provides encouraging sign of continued stable market

  • New markets and new applications continue to emerge

  • Forecast methodology is robust, but need to improve responsiveness from market

  • GSO forecast is a useful tool and a respected source of market information


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