London 14-19 Strategic Analysis

1. London 14-19 Strategic Analysis Transforming challenge into opportunity Mike Pettifer

2. What is the Strategic Analysis? • Statistical basis for planning and commissioning education and training for young Londoners • Informed guide on the education, training and employment landscape for young people in London • Designed to trigger further lines of enquiry and be used in conjunction with other data resources Championing Young People’s Learning

3. The London Story • Jointly produced by YPLA and 14-19 RPG • Format specific to London • Regional level analysis with links to local authority and national figures • Draft report released to local authorities in May for feedback. Formal release 24 September • Key themes of Employer skills needs, Participation and Achievement Championing Young People’s Learning

4. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Championing Young People’s Learning

5. London Infrastructure Overview • £915m allocated to FE and school Sixth Form provision in 2010/11 • 376 providers funded to deliver 16-18 provision in 2010/11 • Just over two thirds of 16-18 providers are School Sixth Forms and 15% are FE institutions • Over £500m invested in 67 capital projects between 2004 and 2009 • 35 Academies funded in 2010 Over 250 schools involved in BSF since 2003 Championing Young People’s Learning

6. Pre-16 attainment • GCSE attainment of 54% in 2008/09 in line with national average • Improvement in all boroughs • Significant variation (43% to 68%); 16 boroughs have achievement below national average • Attainment gap a key issue….. • Attainment gap for 5 A*-C GCSE including Maths and English (2009) Championing Young People’s Learning

7. London’s Economy • Expansive economy • Approx 4.68 million workers • 600,000 people self-employed High correlation between qualifications and employability • 88% employment rate for those qualified to degree, but • 65% rate for those without Level 2 Employers and Young People • London employers less likely to recruit a school or college leaver and to say young people are less well prepared for work. • Poor attitude/personality or lack of motivation is a key issue Championing Young People’s Learning

8. Who is in learning? • 86% of 17 year olds in learning compared to 94% 16 year olds indicating a high dropout rate • School censuses indicate increase in Year 12 and 13 numbers - in contrast to decrease projected by GLA and ONS • 16-18 year olds in employment fell from 7.1% to 4.9% in December 2009 • Majority of learners on Level 3 courses Championing Young People’s Learning

9. Who is not in learning? • Fourteen boroughs have NEET levels above regional • average of 5.3% • Significant borough by borough variation in both NEET • levels and ‘who is NEET’ • Significant fall in participation at 17 • especially for maintained schools from 16 to 17 • 9% gap in London: above national av. and since 2002 • scale of fall varies across London, ranging from 13% to 2%, with over half of outer London boroughs exceeding the regional average. • further exploration needed on reasons for why learners leave participation at 17 Championing Young People’s Learning

10. NEET by borough Championing Young People’s Learning

11. GCSE and A Level achievement • GCSE point scores below Grade C pass threshold for • some L3 provision • London average is above the Grade C GCSE pass threshold • 68 colleges and schools had students entering with scores below this threshold • A-Level points score per candidate lowest in the country • 691.3 points compared to 739.1 nationally • Average points score per student did improve by approximately a third of a grade in 2008/09 • Significant variation between outer and inner London Championing Young People’s Learning

12. Level 2 / Level 3 achievement by 19 • Improved year on year and now exceeds the national average • Significant variation within London • Progress towards reducing the attainment gap also needs to be • looked at on a borough by borough basis Championing Young People’s Learning

13. KEY CONCLUSIONS FOR 2011/12 COMMISSIONING STATEMENTS Championing Young People’s Learning

14. Principles for Commissioning Statements 11/12 • Foster a system in which learners are able to make effective • decisions about their learning journey, and ensure the provision • available allows them to progress successfully in it: • Continuously improve CEIAG services through strong local authority leadership and partnerships • Encourage providers to have effective initial assessment procedures in place • Provide a full curriculum offer via existing and new provision • Monitor success, retention and other VfM indicators to encourage effective places utilisation and challenge poor performance Championing Young People’s Learning

15. Principles for Commissioning Statements 11/12 • Ensure that the needs of all learners are met: • Avoid over-delivery of Level 3 qualifications and challenge poor quality Level 3 provision • Ensure there is sufficient and suitable FL and Level 2 provision to support YP to progress to Level 3 • Gain a better understanding of post-16 participation: • Encourage post-16 providers to track leaver destinations • Develop local authority level intelligence on 17 yr olds leaving learning to inform planning and CEIAG Championing Young People’s Learning

16. Principles for Commissioning Statements 11/12 • Narrow the attainment gap of vulnerable learners: • Continue to review and build the capacity of LLDD provision in London • Ensure that vulnerable learners receive the correct level of support throughout their learning • Pay specific attention to the quality of provision in deprived/disadvantaged areas of London to give the best possible chance for all young Londoners Championing Young People’s Learning