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Climate Change Sensitization Session

Climate Change Sensitization Session. Brazilian Coffee Sector. Objectives of the day. To learn about the climate change phenomenon To know about climate change impacts on coffee production and impacts of coffee production on climate change

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Climate Change Sensitization Session

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  1. Climate Change Sensitization Session Brazilian Coffee Sector

  2. Objectives of the day • To learn about the climate change phenomenon • To know about climate change impacts on coffee production and impacts of coffee production on climate change • To understand the concepts of climate change adaptation and mitigation • To know some adaptation options and some mitigation measures

  3. Climate Change and the Brazilian Coffee Sector An Introduction

  4. Climate Change and the Brazilian Coffee Sector Key Questions: • What is climate change? • Which impacts has climate change caused? • What are the impacts on coffee? • What are expected impacts of climate change for Brazil? • What are the consequences for Brazilian coffee production?

  5. What is climate change? Definition: Any significant change in measures of climate, such as temperature or precipitation, lasting for an extended period of time, typically decades (official IPCC definition)

  6. What is the Greenhouse Effect?

  7. What is the Greenhouse Effect? GHG

  8. Which impacts has climate change caused? Source: Google Images

  9. Which impacts has climate change caused? Seco Glacier, Argentina, 1953 – 2009 • Increase in global temperature • Changes in precipitation patterns • More extreme weather events • Warming of poles and loss of sea ice rising sea levels • Warming of oceans • Melting of glaciers Source: Google Images

  10. What are impacts on agriculture? Source: FAO 1997

  11. What are perceived impacts of coffee producers? • Increase in pests and diseases • Food shortage; mal nutrition • Water scarcity • Extended drought periods • Drying of springs and streams • Degraded soils / landslides • Increase in floods   • Poor yields increase in migration

  12. What are impacts on coffee? Increase in temperature: • Reduction of photosynthesis • Outer shell sticking to bean, preventing ripening • Changes in pest and disease incidents • Droughts erosion loss of soil fertility Change in precipitations patterns / extreme weather events: • Damages the beans and affects growth • Irregular precipitation patterns during the harvest season makes the drying process more difficult, altering the quality of the product • Strong precipitation landslides loss of plants and soil • Strong winds loss of plants or falling of flowers reduced harvest • Changes in flowering / irregular flowering Source: Various studies of CIAT and CATIE, AdapCC 2010

  13. What are predicted changes for Brazil? Source: 4th AR IPCC 2007; CREAS 2009

  14. What are the consequences for Brazilian agriculture? • By 2050: 50% of currently suitable area for agriculture will be affected by desertification and salinization (IPCC 4th AR 2007) • Benefits: reduced frost risk in southern and southeast regions (Pinto, Assad)

  15. Current suitable coffee growing zones Source: Pinto & Assad 2008

  16. Predicted changes in suitability: Optimistic outlook Current suitable areas Source: Pinto & Assad 2008 Optimistic outlook SRES B2 until 2050 (-18.3%) and 2070 (-27.39%)

  17. Predicted changes in suitability: Pessimistic outlook Current suitable areas Source: Pinto & Assad 2008 Pessimistic outlook SRES A2 until 2050 (-17.1%) and 2070 (-33%)

  18. What are the consequences for Brazilian coffee production? Predictions by EMBRAPA and UNICAMP: • By 2050 loss of 18.3% of total land suitable for coffee; by 2070 loss of 27.39% • Potential losses of at least R$ 1.7 billion, R$ 2.57 billion respectively (based on 2006 production of 2.5 million tonnes worth R$ 9.3 billion) • Arabica coffee hit hardest: likely loss of suitable area by up to 33% in São Paolo and Minas Gerais due to water shortages or excessive heat • Increasing suitability for coffee production in the south due to reduced frost risk because of rising temperature • Potential increase in suitability for coffee production in Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul • Despite the suitability increase in the south, a loss of total production area is expected

  19. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

  20. Climate Change Adaptation and Adaptation Options in Coffee An overview

  21. Climate Change Adapation and Adaptation Options in Coffee Key Questions: • What are responses to climate change? • What does climate change adaptation mean? • What are climate vulnerabilities? • How can coffee producers adapt to climate change? • Are there practical examples to learn from? • What are relevant terms and definitions?

  22. What are responses to climate change? Climate Change Adap- tation Impacts Responses

  23. What is climate change adaptation? Definition: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation (IPCC TAR, 2001 a) Action of people (e.g. coffee farmers) that minimizes negative impacts of climate change or utilizes opportunities.

  24. What are climate vulnerabilities? Vulnerabilities in the production system: • Inadequate management of the farm / of the agro-forestry system • Old plants • Poor soil fertility • Inefficient management of natural resources • High deforestation rate affecting local ecosystems Vulnerabilities of producers: • High dependence on one cash crop / one source of income • Lack of access to information / education / capacity • Lack of access to finance

  25. How can coffee producers adapt to climate change? Coffee producers have mainly three options to adapt: • Adapting their production system • Adapting their plants • Enhancing their framework conditions

  26. How can coffee producers adapt to climate change? Examples of adaptation options: • Diversification of crops and income • Good agricultural practices (shade mgmt / pruning / pest mgmt / soil mgmt) • New technologies suitable for coffee drying (e.g. solar dryers) • Maintenance and expansion of forest cover • Efficient management of natural resources / efficient energy use (improved kitchen stoves, renewable energy) • Capacity building for promoter farmers and producers • Conservation of genetic diversity / species resistant to droughts • Access to climate information, credit, crop insurance • Farmer organizations

  27. What are recommendations for Brazil? The needs for adaptation differ from production site to production site. However, based on the projections for Brazil C&C recommends the following:

  28. What are recommendations for Brazil?

  29. What are recommendations for Brazil?

  30. Are there practical examples to learn from? Yes, there have been some pilot initiatives on climate change adaptation with coffee smallholders. One example is the project “Adaptation for Smallholders to Climate Change – AdapCC”: • Development Partnership between Cafédirect plc and GIZ • Duration of three years: 04/2007 to 02/2010 • 3 pilots in coffee: Mexico, Peru, Nicaragua • 1 pilot in tea: Kenya • www.adapcc.org

  31. Practical example: AdapCC pilot Peru http://www.adapcc.org/en/peru.htm

  32. What are relevant terms and definitions regarding adaptation? Exposure: • The degree of climate stress upon a particular unit (e.g. farm) in a defined area Sensitivity: • The degree to which a system is affected by, or responsive, to climate stimuli Vulnerability: • Factors which make a system (e.g. coffee production) susceptible to negative impacts of climate change Adaptive capacity: • The ability to adjust to climate stimuli Resilience: • The capacity of a system to rebound or recover from a climate stimulus

  33. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

  34. Climate Change Mitigation An overview

  35. Climate change mitigation Key Questions: • What are responses to climate change? • What is climate change mitigation? • Which greenhouse gases exist in agriculture? • Where do we cause emissions? • What are greenhouse gas pools and sources? • How can coffee producers mitigate climate change? • What are important terms and definitions?

  36. What are responses to climate change? Climate Change Causes (GHG) Mitigation Impacts Responses

  37. What is climate change mitigation? Definition: Climate change mitigation is action to decrease the intensity of radiative forcing* in order to reduce the potential effects of global warming (IPCC TAR, 2001) * Radiative forcing: the change in net difference between the incoming radiation energy and the outgoing radiation energy in a given climate system; measured in watts per square meter (IPCC TAR, 2001) Activities that reduce, prevent or remove greenhouse gases and therefore reduce climate change.

  38. Which greenhouse gases exist in agriculture? Together the forestry and the agricultural sector contribute around 31% of global emissions! Energy generation Industry Forestry Sector Agricultural Sector Construction Transport Waste Source: IPCC 2007 / adapted from Sangana PPP 2010

  39. Which greehouse gases exist in agriculture? The main GHG in the agricultural sector are methane, carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide. As CO2 is the most important GHG, the other gases are calculated into equivalents of this gas: CO2e. Source: IPCC 2007

  40. Where do we cause emissions? Source: IPCC 2007 / adapted from Sangana PPP 2010

  41. What are carbon pools? Carbon pools are ecosystem components capable of emitting or removing greenhouse gases into or from the atmosphere: • Above ground biomass • Below ground biomass • Dead wood 1, 2 3, 4 Biomass Organic matter Source: Sangana PPP 2010 5 Soil Leaf litter Soil organic carbon (SOC)

  42. What are emission sources? Source: Sangana PPP 2010

  43. What are emission sources in agriculture? Source: Adapted from Sangana PPP 2010

  44. How can coffee producers mitigate climate change? Atmosphere For removal activities we consider our carbon pools. Ecosystem Removal: activities to capture or remove GHG by ecosystem components. Removal can be estimated or measured. Source: Adapted from Sangana PPP 2010

  45. How can coffee producers mitigate climate change? Atmosphere For reduction activities we consider our emission sources. Ecosystems and activities Reduction: activities to minimize or prevent GHG emissions generated. Reductions can be estimated or measured. Source: Adapted from Sangana PPP 2010

  46. Where are overlaps between adaptation and mitigation?

  47. What are important terms and definitions? • Carbon footprint: the total set of GHG emissions caused by an organization, event, product or person (UK Carbon Trust, 2009) • Carbon credit: 1t of CO2e reduced or removed that is sold; countries or large companies buy these credits to offset their emissions or to show their contribution to climate change mitigation • Carbon project: a project that aims to generate carbon credits under certain criteria and rules

  48. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

  49. Wrap Up

  50. What are responses to climate change? Climate Change Causes (GHG) Adap- tation Mitigation Impacts Responses

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