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Possible outcomes of the negotiations for developing countries and the implications for Mediterranean products by Pedro Arias Commodities and Trade Division. Contents. Preliminary considerations Trade and Food Aid Expressed concerns Prospects. Preliminary considerations.

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  1. Possible outcomes of the negotiations for developing countries and the implications for Mediterranean productsby Pedro AriasCommodities and Trade Division

  2. Contents • Preliminary considerations • Trade and Food Aid • Expressed concerns • Prospects

  3. Preliminary considerations • Near East and North Africa • Population growth, soil erosion and soil degradation • Incidence of poverty • Cereal production and import requirements • The EU market

  4. Citrus Trade($552 mln)

  5. Nuts Trade($529 mln)

  6. Olive Oil Trade($400 mln)

  7. Stone Fruits Trade($133 mln)

  8. Trade with the EUMorocco (mln €)

  9. Trade with the EUTurkey (mln €)

  10. Trade with the EUAlgeria (€ ,000)

  11. Trade with the EUTunisia (€ ,000)

  12. Food AidCereals only (MT of grain equivalent) Source: WFP Database

  13. Concerns of NENA Countries • Food Aid and Food Import Bills • Water and prospects for increased output • Water for high value products (f&v) • Expansion of EU • EU market access and preference erosion

  14. Concerns of NENA Countries WTO - RELATED • Committments on AMS difficult when production is subject to weather • Capital investment on irrigation and water subsidies in the “green box” - but not explicitly • Preference erosion to EU, USA and Japan • Domestic markets: diverging views

  15. Concerns of NENA Countries WTO - RELATED • Tariff cuts in foreign markets • Capacity to lobby within WTO • RTAs and their notification to WTO • SPS • Overall NENA opinion

  16. Concerns by Others • Capacity to meet requirements of WTO membership • Capacity to assess impact of policy changes • Capacity to comply with SPS • Capacity to negotiate in WTO rounds • Different countries at different stages of negotiation • The view of Freshfel Europe • Private Standards • Accession of Turkey to the EU

  17. Prospects Will their markets open any further? • Not all are WTO members • Tariffication has left high bound rates • Domestic support already reduced (SAPs) • Safeguard provisions expected (Special and Sensitive Products)

  18. Prospects If WTO will impact, how’s it for f&v? • Do they face competition? • To compete they may need to increase their market share • Erosion of trade preferences • SPS and Private Standards

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