Risk Assessment. Dec 3 - 5, 2007. Toxicology – the dismal science Toxicology + Risk Assessment = the predictive science. The Risk Assessment Paradigm. National Research Council\'s 1983 report Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process , called the "Red Book" .
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Dec 3 - 5, 2007
National Research Council\'s 1983 report Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process, called the "Red Book"
Risk = Probability (of adverse outcome)
Hazard ≠ Risk
(26th President of the USA, 1901-1909)
Chemical pesticides and other residues tolerated at levels at which evidence can show that they “do not cause any deleterious effects”
The Delaney ClauseNo Food Additive Shall be Deemed to be Safe if it is Found to Induce Cancer when Ingested by Man or Animals, or if it is Found, After Tests which Are Appropriate for the Evaluation of the Safety of Food Additives, to Induce Cancer in Man or Animals
TOLERABLE DAILY INTAKE (TDI)
The amount of a substance that can be ingested over a
lifetime without significant health risk
ADI = NOAEL
Poor quality of data
Safety Factor = 10 x 10 [x 10] [x 10]
Animal-to-human Intra-species Particularly
variability inter-individual severe effect
Based on most sensitive species and most sensitive end-point
Effecttotal >> PotencyA* DoseA + PotencyB* DoseB… +… + PotencyN* DoseN
Effecttotal >> PotencyA* DoseA
where PotencyB = 0
Effecttotal << PotencyA* DoseA + PotencyB* DoseB… +… + PotencyN* DoseN
Drinking water disinfectant by-products
↔ infectious diseases