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Osservatorio Personal Broadband

“ Anywhere Network”: Opportunità di Mercato e Nuovi Scenari Tecnologici. Osservatorio Personal Broadband. Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Oss ervatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech SpA. Agenda. Saluto e introduzione, a cura del Presidente dr. Achille De Tommaso

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Osservatorio Personal Broadband

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  1. “Anywhere Network”: Opportunità di Mercato e Nuovi Scenari Tecnologici Osservatorio Personal Broadband Andrea Calcagno,Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech SpA

  2. Agenda • Saluto e introduzione, a cura del Presidente dr. Achille De Tommaso • Anywhere Network Concept. Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech • 4G Business Case for 2.6 GHz . Andrea Calcagno, Resp. Osservatorio e CEO & EVP WiTech • Case Study: Freemax, Wireless Broadband 4G Operator in Tuscany. Eric Le Bihan, President & CEO Fremax

  3. Anywhere Network Concept

  4. Agenda • Anywhere Network Access • Consumer Access Evolution • Anywhere Access Experience

  5. Anywhere Anywhere Network Access CombinesTwoLifestyles: Wired and Wireless Source: Yankee Group, 2009

  6. Consumer Access Anywhere Network Access Will Grow To a Nearly $1 Trillion Business by 2012 Source: Yankee Group Link Data: 2008 Market Adoption Monitors & Forecasts: Consumer

  7. Consumer Access Global Wireless Broadband Connections Are AlsoOutpacingWired Broadband Source: Yankee Group Market Adoption Monitors & Forecasts

  8. Anywhere experience Anywhere Experiences Combine the Quality of Wired with the Ubiquity of Wireless Source: Yankee Group, 2009

  9. Anywhere experience AnywhereCombines the Best ofBothWired and Wireless Access Source: Yankee Group, 2009

  10. Anywhere experience SeamlessAnywhereExperiencesNeedAspectsofBothWired and Wireless Experiences Source: Yankee Group, 2009

  11. 4G Business Case for 2.6 GHz

  12. Agenda • 4G Technologies • 4G Deployment Model • Business Case • Conclusion

  13. 4G Technologies Mobile WiMAX IMT-Advanced IP E2E Network 3GPP CKT Switched Network IP E2E Network OFDMA - Based CDMA - Based

  14. 4G Technologies 2G/3G/3.5G 2G/3G/3.5G Core Network T1,E1 Support for Legacy RAN Conversion to All-IP core & Increased Backhaul capacity Next Generation Access Network Data Overlay or Replacement LTE or WiMAX All-IP Core Network Increased BH Capacity Comparable Capex – New Spectrum Need

  15. 4G Technologies

  16. Deployment Model Hotspot coverage Home Base Station National Coverage Urban Coverage

  17. Business Case Operator Type: CLEC (COMPETITIVE LOCAL EXCHANGE CARRIER) or Green Field Scenario: Urban Coverage ( Roma, Milano, Napoli, Torino , Firenze) 4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2) Band: 2.6 GHz Urban Scenario Dense Urban Scenario Target Market: Consumer Service Profile: Mobile Broadband (Flat Data and VoIP) Devices: Handset and Tablet Business Case Tool: TEA|LTE

  18. Business Case – Market Analysis Summary Roma

  19. Business Case – Market Analysis|Service Profile Handset 70% - Tablet 30%

  20. Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Roma|Total Users Forecast

  21. Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Roma|LostUsersForecast

  22. Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Roma|Net Users Forecast

  23. Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast TotalNet UsersForecast

  24. Business Case – Market Analysis|Forecast Total Revenues

  25. Business Case – Technical Analysis|Technology 4G Technology: LTE ( 10 MHz, FDD, MIMO 2x2) Band: 2.6 GHz

  26. Business Case – Technical Analysis|Equipment Base Station: eNode B Devices

  27. Business Case – Technical Analysis|Perfomance

  28. Business Case – Technical Analysis|Perfomance

  29. Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning MME S-GW/P-GW eNode B UT

  30. Business Case – Technical Network Dimensioning MME S-GW/P-GW DA RIFARE eNode B UT e Node B with MW BH Urban 20% Dense Urban 10%

  31. Business Case – Roll Out MME S-GW/P-GW eNode B UT

  32. Business Case – EF Analysis Personnel

  33. Business Case – EF Analysis CAPEX & OPEX

  34. Business Case – EF Analysis Income Statement EBITDA > 0 3rd Year EBIT > 0 4th Year Net Income > 0 6th Year

  35. Business Case – EF Analysis Cash Flow Peak Funding 74 M€ PBP 6.3 Years NPV 18,45 M€ CFCF 100 M€

  36. Business Case – Conclusion 4G Business Case – UrbanCoverage – CLEC/Green Field Value Added Applications Advertising Revenues Broadband Devices ARPU Customer Lifetime New pricing model More devices for User Appl. Open Access Better User Experience No Legacy OPEX FTTS Flat Architecture Economies of scale All-IP Network Spectral Effinciency Virtual Network Opportunity CAPEX

  37. Backup Slide sul Business Case Tool: TEA-LTE

  38. WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (1) As for any carrier-class Broadband Wireless Access infrastructure, building a WiMAX & LTE network is and will remain a complex undertaking, … Business Case Quality Assurance Optimization Definitive Project Services Launch Budget Allocation Network Building

  39. WiMAX & LTE Project Life-Cycle (2) Network Building Quality Assurance Services Launch Optimization … and the initial planning phases are particularly critical to set a solid foundation for the success of the initiative. …  Business Case Definitive Project Budget Allocation

  40. A Holistic, Iterative Approach is Needed Since the Outset Market Analysis Evaluating the potential market for WiMAX & LTE services, identifying target markets, defining service profiles, and forecasting Revenues Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis Iterative fine-tuning of the WiMAX & LTE Business Plan, analyzing the influence of parameter and boundary condition changes Technical Analysis Dimensioning the WiMAX & LTE Access and Backhauling network infrastructures, defining the required bill of quantities Economic & Financial Analysis Calculating Capex & Opex and evaluating all WiMAX & LTE Business Plan’s KPI Taking into account all technology and business aspects to ensure an iterative alignment of business and technology strategies allowing to identify all main cost drivers

  41. WiTech TEA Family of Business Case Analysis Tools Market Analysis Technical Analysis Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis LTE Economic & Financial Analysis Supporting 4G operators, vendors and consultants in their strategic planning activities with  thoroughly integrated techno-economic analyses TM TM

  42. WiTech TEA Family of Business Case Analysis Tools Based on real best practices Equipped with well calibrated, WiMAX & LTE technology-related market, technical, and economic models Presenting manageable Input and Output with meaningful correlations Supporting an iterative way of working by design through an easy-to-use, dashboard-styled GUI LTE TM TM

  43. TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Market Analysis Evaluating the potential market for WiMAX & LTE services, considering: Type of territory (dense urban, urban, suburban/exurban, rural) Type of segment (residential/soho; small, middle, and large enterprises/institutions) Type of application model (fixed, nomadic, portable, and mobile) Type of service (technical characteristics and pricing policies) Churn impact

  44. TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Technical Analysis Preliminary dimensioning the WiMAX & LTE Access & Backhauling network infrastructures, considering: Down-link and up-link capacity demand (by market segment and rollout plan) Aggregated total capacity Existing backbone infrastructures Type of wireless backhauling technology (SDH, PDH, IP Ethernet, License exempt) Base Station / Enhanced Node B & User Terminal / User Equipment characterization (antenna gain, transmit power, diversity gain, losses, sector number, terminal type, MIMO) Path loss model (Cost-231, SUI, ECC-33, Log-Normal with/without Shadowing, Free Space) Compliance with standard WiMAX Forum’s Fixed & Mobile System Profiles (plus the possibility to define custom profiles)

  45. TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Economic & Financial Analysis Calculating all key economic & financial figures and evaluating KPI in the WiMAX & LTE initiative's Business Plan: Capex & Opex (spectrum license, connectivity, backhauling, BTS / eNB, UT / UE, ASN GW & CSN / EPC & CN, personnel, marketing, SG&A, etc.) Depreciations TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) Relevant Indicators (Gross Margin, EBITDA, EBIT, NPV, IRR, PBP, Shareholder value, etc.)

  46. TEA|WIMAX & TEA|LTE – Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis • Enabling the user to fine-tune the WiMAX & LTE initiative’s business plan, in real-time and total privacy, and to view the results in an animated graphical format instantly for all analyses: • Market Analysis • Technical Analysis • Economic & Financial Analysis

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