LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS PERU PART 2: LANDSLIDES

1. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERSPERUPART 2: LANDSLIDES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

2. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN PERU FLOODS GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES LANDSLIDES EARTHQUAKES—HUAYCOS--TSUNAMIS HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT VOLCANOES ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

3. Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s atmospheric, hydrospheric, and lithospheric interactions cause LANDSLIDES

4. PERU: ON THE SOUTH AMERICAN TECTONIC PLATE

5. Peru is affected often by landslides as the result of its steep slopes; also many are triggered by floods and earthquakes

6. LANDSLIDES represent permanent deformation caused by the downward and outward, down-slope movements of large volumes of soil and/or rock under the influence of the force of gravity.

7. PHYSICS OF LANDSLIDES • Landslides occur naturally on slopes. • Landslides can be triggered and/or exacerbated by: 1) water (from precipitation during a tropical storm, hurricane, or typhoon), or 2) vibrations (from ground shaking during an earthquake).

8. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community torespond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., landslides, ...) intersect at a point in space and time.

9. Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

10. THE REASONS ARE . . . • When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

11. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

12. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community has NODISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

13. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

14. TOWARDS LANDSLIDE DISASTER RESILIENCE

15. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL LANDSLIDES PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

16. LANDSLIDE HAZARDS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • PREPAREDNESS • PROTECTION • FORECASTS/SCENARIOS • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and • RECONSTRUCTION LANDSLIDE RISK POLICY OPTIONS ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK LANDSLIDE DISASTER RESILIENCE DATA BASES AND INFORMATION PERU’S COMMUNITIES HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

17. HAZARDS EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY LOCATION ELEMENTS OF LANDSLIDE RISK RISK

18. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL LANDSLIDES PROTECTION OF PEOPLE, BUILDINGS, AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

19. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL LANDSLIDES EARLY WARNING AND LOCAL EVACUATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

20. LANDSLIDE HAZARDS:ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

21. A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A LANDSLIDE INTERACT WITH THE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS OF PERU’S COMMUNITIES

22. LANDSLIDE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • DOWN-SLOPE MOVEMENT OF SOIL AND/OR ROCK (CAN FORM A LAKE) • DOWN-SLOPE FLOW OF WET SOIL (AKA MUDFLOW; CAN BURY A VILLAGE) • LATERAL SPREADING OF SOIL AND/OR ROCK (CAN CAUSE PERMANENT DEFORMATION TO INFRASTRUCTURE)

23. CAUSES OF DAMAGE SITING AND BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS LANDSLIDES SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS CASE HISTORIES PRECIPITATION THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE SHAKING GROUND SHAKING THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE

24. LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL LANDSLIDES • ALL LANDSLIDES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

25. PERU’S MOST NOTABLE LANDSLIDES

26. NOTE:IT IS NOT ONLY PERU’S POOREST OF THE POOR WHO OFTEN LIVE IN LANDSLIDE-PRONE LOATIONS THAT ARE AT RISK, BUT ALSO THE TOURISTS WHO VISIT THE SAME PLACES

27. RAIN AND MUDSLIDES INCREASE GROWING CONCERNS ABOUT LANDSLIDE RISK IN MACHU PICCHU 2,500 TOURISTS STRANDED JANUARY 28, 2010

28. MACHU PICCHU

29. More than 300,000 people a year make the trip to Machu Picchu to marvel at the 500-year-old structures built from blocks of granite chiseled from the mountainside

30. On January 28, 2010, rain and mudflows devastated the homes of thousands of Peruvians living in the vicinity of Machu Picchu and created havoc for tourists visiting Machu Picchu and the Peruvian authorities.

31. Peruvian authorities used helicopters to airlift some of the foreign tourists trapped by rain and mudslides that killed seven people visiting the famed Inca ruins.

32. More than 2,500 others were left stranded: 1,900 in nearby Aguas Calientes and 670 more on the Inca Trail, the narrow Andean pathway up to Machu Picchu that had been cut in several places by mudslides.

33. Stranded tourists were temporarily left sleeping in the street square, in gyms, in schools, on trains, and in makeshift tents.

34. Two landslides—one in December 1995 and another a month later—that occurred on the road that zigzags up the steep embankment from Aguas Calientes to Machu Picchu had already raised international concerns about the risk to tourists and Machu Picchu. ,

35. The International Counsel of Scientific Associations prepared a landslide hazard assessment report for UNESCO in 1999, warning of the possibility of a landslide disaster at Machu Picchu.

36. Geologists at Kyoto University in Japan concluded recently that a massive landslide could send the stone ruins of Machu Picchu crashing into the Urubamba River below.

37. Now, many worry that a major landslide may be imminent at Machu Picchu and that it will be a big one; …But no one knows when it will happen, or exactly what to do about it.

38. WORST LANDSLIDE: 1970 IN PERU A M7.9 earthquake that occurred offshore Peru in 1970 triggered a massive landslide of snow and rock in the Nevados Huascaran Mountains. 100 million cubic km of rock and soil buried Yungay, Ramrahirca, and several villages, killing 18,000.

39. ANOTHER NOTABLE LANDSLIDE IN PERU IS INEVITABLE • THE PERUVIANS HAVE A MUCH BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE IMPORTANCE OF LANDSLIDE DISASTER RESILIENCE SINCE THE 2010 EVENT AND THE 1970 NEVADOS HUASCARA MTMS. LANDSLIDE DISASTER

40. REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) HISTORICAL DATABASES FOR LANDSLIDE-PRONE AREAS MAPS: 100-YEAR AND 500-YEAR FLOODS; GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKE DISASTER SCENARIOS EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR LANDSLIDE DISASTER RESILIENCE