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Relating LEED AP Growth to Green Building in the US

Relating LEED AP Growth to Green Building in the US. LEED AP Data through Feb 10, 2010 March 31, 2010 Analysis Joint work with USGBC. Cumulative LEED AP’s By Year. Top Ten Practice Areas (as of 2/10/2010). Composition of Top LEED AP Professions By Year.

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Relating LEED AP Growth to Green Building in the US

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  1. Relating LEED AP Growth to Green Building in the US LEED AP Data through Feb 10, 2010 March 31, 2010 Analysis Joint work with USGBC

  2. Cumulative LEED AP’s By Year

  3. Top Ten Practice Areas (as of 2/10/2010)

  4. Composition of Top LEED AP Professions By Year

  5. Composition of Top LEED AP Professions By Year

  6. Who is under represented relative to the size of the real estate industry? • Appraisers – only 16 LEED APs in the country. • Lenders – only 41 • Thus the problem of appraising and financing LEED property.

  7. Density of Total LEED APs By State Wash DC not viewable here.

  8. LEED APs Per Capita

  9. LEED APs Per Capita Wash DC Correlation of LEED AP’s Per Capita with # Leed Buildings LQ = .942

  10. Where are the Green Buildings?

  11. LEED Buildings Location Quotient=((state pop/US pop)/(# state cert/total US cert)) #1 Wash DC #2 OR #3 VT #4, 5, 6 & 7 are WA, CO, MA, ME

  12. Top Ten Greenest States/Dist Based on LEED LQ

  13. Relative to All CRE Buildings Which States are the Least Green?

  14. What are the Greenest States Per Capita Based on Office Stock? Data: CoStar Analysis by Eugene Choi in “Green on Buildings” Forthcoming in the Journal of Sustainable Real Estate, 2011, see www.josre.org

  15. Who are the Greenest Cities Based on Office Stock Penetration?* Data: CoStar Analysis by Eugene Choi in “Green on Buildings” Forthcoming in the Journal of Sustainable Real Estate, 2011, see www.josre.org

  16. LEED AP’s Versus # Buildings as % of Stock

  17. Explaining the Location of LEED BuildingsLEED LQ is the Dependent Variable • R Square = 0.957 • Adjusted R Square = 0.887

  18. Using LEED AP’s Per Capita Explains LEED Building Efforts (or vice versa) • R Square 0.934 • Adjusted R Square 0.931

  19. Relative (Higher) Rents Alone Explain More Than Rent Differentials in Terms of Where Developers Build Green • R Square 0.306 • Adjusted R Square 0.267

  20. Summary on Regression Analysis • It is impossible to know (on this work to date) if we have LEED AP’s in areas with demand for LEED Buildings or if there are areas spawning LEED AP’s that in turn drive more LEED development. • Yet we see a very strong correlation between LEED AP’s and Buildings and little correlation with GDP growth, population growth or even rent differentials (LEED rents above non-LEED rents) • We do see more LEED buildings in those markets with relatively higher rents in absolute dollars. • We still need to investigate regulatory effects and other possible drivers of green real estate. • We need to drill down on some cities as well.

  21. Summary • Incentives and regulation matter • Many states, i.e. CA, and cities with higher penetration of LEED buildings have mandated green buildings, i.e. San Francisco, Houston, Washington DC. (See Eugene Choi, 2011) • Higher rents also matter. Cities where rents are relative high compared to the US average tend to observe higher penetration rates. • It is not clear whether LEED AP’s drive more LEED building or if LEED building drives the presence of LEED AP’s but there exists an extremely high correlation between the presence of LEED buildings and LEED AP’s.

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