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Europe Update

Morgan Stanley. Europe Update. 23 October 2003. Morgan Stanley. Table of Contents. Section 1. European Overview. Section 2. European Markets. Morgan Stanley. Section 1. European Overview. Morgan Stanley. European Overview. Size Matters.

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Europe Update

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  1. Morgan Stanley Europe Update 23 October 2003

  2. Morgan Stanley Table of Contents Section 1 European Overview Section 2 European Markets

  3. Morgan Stanley Section 1 European Overview

  4. Morgan Stanley European Overview Size Matters Sources EU Commission (GDP as of 2001, all others as of 2002)/U.S. figures as of September 2002 • Notes • EU-15 and EU-25 on a purchasing-power parity basis. Assuming an FX Rate of 1.1 USD/EUR • EU-15 and EU-25: CAGR 1999-2001, U.S.: 2002 estimate; EU-25 weighted against nominal GDP 1

  5. Morgan Stanley European Overview Our European Presence U.K. (1977) France (1990) Germany (1987) Ireland (2003) Italy (1989) Luxembourg (1989) Netherlands (1997) Portugal (2000) Russia (1994) Spain (‘93/’99) Sweden (1999) Switzerland (1986) Israel (2001) South Africa (1994) 2

  6. Equity Fixed Income Investment Banking Institutional Invest Mgmt Private Equity Morgan Stanley European Overview Our European Business Full Line of Financial Services Morgan Stanley Institutional Securities Individual Investor Group Investment Management Consumer Banking Group Equity Research Private Wealth Mgmt Global Capital Markets Equity Capital Debt CapitalMarkets Markets Securitised Product Group Banking Team Mergers, Acquisitions & Restructuring Real Estate Group Institutional Securities Joint Ventures Investment Banking Division 3

  7. Market Conditions % Change in US$ Volume Morgan Stanley European Overview European Market Conditions Equity Underwriting Announced M&A Volume 2001 vs. 2000 2002 vs. 2001 2003 vs. 2002 YTD (1) 2001 vs. 2000 2002 vs. 2001 2003 vs. 2002 YTD (1) 8% 52% 33% 8% 46% 20% Debt Underwriting Completed M&A Volume 2001 vs. 2000 2002 vs. 2001 2003 vs. 2002 YTD (1) 2001 vs. 2000 2002 vs. 2001 2003 vs. 2002 YTD (1) 25% 12% 52% 56% 15% 14% Source Thomson Financial Securities Data • Note • As of 22 October 2003 4

  8. Global and European Revenues Morgan Stanley European Overview European Revenues 1997 and 2002 1997 2002 Europe 12% Europe 18% Global Revenues $14.8Bn European Revenues $1.7Bn Global Revenues $19.1Bn European Revenues $3.3Bn Source Morgan Stanley 1997 Annual Report and 2002 10K Filing 5

  9. Morgan Stanley Section 2 European Markets

  10. European Monthly M&A Volumes (Announced) $Bn Morgan Stanley European Markets European M&A Volumes Are Improving 2002-2003 (1) 2002 2003 # Deals 60 38 95 64 86 64 81 58 68 76 78 93 62 54 67 70 67 74 73 57 61 47 Source Thomson Financial Securities Data • Note • October 2003 includes month through October 20th 2003 6

  11. European New Issue Market By Offering Type % of Total Volume Total Yearly New Issue Volume ($Bn) Morgan Stanley European Markets European Equity New Issue Market By Offering Type Equity and Equity-Linked Offerings Since 1996 (1) Source EquityWare • Notes • Includes rights issues and domestic tranches • YTD through September 12, 2003 7

  12. Total Value of Share Trading US$Bn Morgan Stanley European Markets Growth of Exchanges Source World Federation of Exchanges 8

  13. All-International Corporate Bond Issuance—12 Months Moving Average € MM Morgan Stanley European Markets European Debt Market DT EMU Source BondWare • Notes • EMU market the beginning of a more active primary corporate bond market in Europe • The DT multi-tranche bond offering in the summer of 2000 was the first of many jumbo deals pushing new issuance volumes to record highs • Since 2002 the market has been characterised by de-leveraging through debt reduction and general balance-sheet repair 9

  14. Breakdown of Global AUM by Client Type, 2001 % Asset Ownership by Source, 2001 $ Trillion Breakdown of Global AUM, 2001 $ Trillion Morgan Stanley European Markets European Asset Management Source UBS Warburg, Oliver, Wyman & Company Sept 02 research report Source UBS Warburg, Cerulli, Oliver, Wyman & Company Sept 02 research report, Japan Investment Trust Association Source UBS Warburg, Oliver, Wyman & Company Sept 02 research report 10

  15. Total Pension Assets vs. Total Populations Worldwide, 2001 $Bn $MM Projected Global Fund Growth (2001-2006E) (1)(2) % Morgan Stanley European Markets European Asset Management Source Charterhouse Securities 2002 Source Cerulli 2002 • Notes • Mutual fund figures are used as the best available approximation of industry growth rates • Figures for Europe are from Sector Analysis 2002 and refer to growth in the demand for third party funds. All other figures are taken from Cerulli 2002. Japan figures refer to the growth in onshore and cross-border fund assets, U.S. figures refer to the growth in U.S. mutual fund assets, and Asia ex-Japan figures refer to the growth in Asian mutual fund assets 11

  16. Morgan Stanley European Markets European Credit Cards Business Remaining Focused in a Competitive Market 12

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