Using of Fuzzy Set Theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought. Contents: Introduction How does Fuzzy Set Theory work? The use of Fuzzy Set Theory in the Security Diagrams project Conclusions. . Contents. Intro-duction. How works Fuzzy Set Theory?.
Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.
Using of Fuzzy Set Theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
1Introduction
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Principle difficulties in vulnerability research
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Fuzzy Set Theory
… offers a possibility to use imprecise categories
… can handle complex relationships in relatively easy rule systems
… enables linguistic modelling, but with quantitative results
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
2How does Fuzzy Set Theory work?
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Income
poor rich
+
Conflicts
instable stable
A simple model of susceptibility
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Suscept-ibility
very low high
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Binary Logic
sharp threshold
Contents
poor
rich
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
100
1.000
10.000
100.000
1.000.000
Conclu-sions
Yearly income [US$]
1
0,7
0,5
0,3
0
100
1.000
10.000
100.000
1.000.000
5.000
Fuzzy Logic
no sharp threshold
Contents
poor
rich
Intro-duction
degree of member-ship
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Yearly income [US$]
Fuzzification of input variables
Income
poor
rich
1
0,5
0
100
1.000
10. 000
100.000
1.000.000
GDP per capita [US$]
Conflicts
stable
instable
1
0,5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Conflict involvement [1 = no conflict; 2 = latent conflict; 3 = non-violentconflicts; 4 = violent crisis; 5 = war]
Inference system
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Fuzzification of input variables
Inference system
Income
poor
rich
1
0,7
Contents
0,5
Intro-duction
0,3
0
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
100
1.000
10. 000
100.000
1.000.000
5.000
GDP per capita [US$]
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conflicts
stable
unstable
1
0,9
Conclu-sions
0,5
0,1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Conflict involvement [1 = no conflict; 2 = latent conflict; 3 = non-violentconflicts; 4 = violent crisis; 5 = war]
Center ofgravity
+
0,35
Result:Susceptibility = 0,35
or “medium to low”
Inference system
Defuzzification of output variable
Contents
Susceptibility
Intro-duction
verylow
mediumto low
mediumto high
high
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
1
0,5
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
0
0
0,5
1
Conclu-sions
2The use of Fuzzy Set Theory in the Security Diagrams project
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Applying Fuzzy Set Theory
…in a harmonized way by all disciplinary perspectives
Contents
…in order to get comparable results
Intro-duction
…for susceptibility and the principle influence factors,
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
…and to easily understand the theoretical models of the other disciplines
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Fuzzy System with Subsystems (Psychological Perspective)
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
4Conclusions
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Disadvantages of Fuzzy Set Theory
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Advantages of Fuzzy Set Theory
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Conclusion
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
Thank you very much!
Questions?
Contents
Intro-duction
How works Fuzzy Set Theory?
Use in the Security Diagrams Project
Conclu-sions
The end