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An Evaluation of the Analogy Between Nuclear and Cyber Deterrence

An Evaluation of the Analogy Between Nuclear and Cyber Deterrence. Patrick Cirenza University of Cambridge PONI Capstone Conference 2017. Outline. What is the Analogy and Why is it Important? Questions, Sources, and Definitions Two Research Questions Interviews Key Definitions

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An Evaluation of the Analogy Between Nuclear and Cyber Deterrence

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  1. An Evaluation of the Analogy Between Nuclear and Cyber Deterrence Patrick Cirenza University of Cambridge PONI Capstone Conference 2017

  2. Outline • What is the Analogy and Why is it Important? • Questions, Sources, and Definitions • Two Research Questions • Interviews • Key Definitions • A Strategic Deterrent? • Characteristics • Evaluation • Final Thoughts • Conclusion • The Future: Three Paths • Further Research Opportunities

  3. What is the Analogy and Why is it Important?

  4. “I’d guess I’d call it the 21st century nuclear weapons equivalent.” – Former Secretary of State John Kerry on cyber weapons in his confirmation hearing • “If Internet security cannot be controlled, it’s not an exaggeration to say that the effects could be no less than a nuclear bomb.” – General Fang Fenghui, Chief of General Staff for the PLA • “The single biggest existential threat that’s out there, I think, is cyber” – Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen

  5. Two Questions Do strategic cyber weapons, like nuclear weapons, constitute a revolution in military affairs? Do strategic cyber weapons have the strategic deterrent characteristics of nuclear weapons?

  6. Interviews Conducted • Barack Obama, President of the United States • Robert Gates, Secretary of Defense • Bill Perry, Secretary of Defense • General Michael Hayden, Director of National Security Agency and Central Intelligence Agency • Admiral Cecil Haney, Commander of Strategic Command • General Bob Kehler, Commander of Strategic Command • Admiral James Ellis, Commander of Strategic Command • Kenneth Chennault, Chairman and CEO of American Express • Anthony Earley, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Pacific Gas and Electric • Chris Painter, Cyber Coordinator for State Department • Michelle Markoff, Deputy Cyber Coordinator for State Department • Dr. Phyllis Schneck, Deputy Undersecretary for Cybersecurity and Communications Department of Homeland Security • Dr. Robert Jervis, Columbia University • Dr. Thomas Schelling, RAND Corporation • Dr. Martin Libicki, RAND Corporation • Dr. Siegfried Hecker, Director of Los Alamos National Laboratories • Dr. Sidney Drell, Deputy Director SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory • Dr. Jackie Schneider, Elliot School of International Affairs • Mark Ghilarducci, Director of California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services • Colonel MatteoMartemucci, 318th Cyberspace Operations Group, 688th Cyberspace Wing • Colonel James Wakefield IV, Air Force • Dr. Emily Goldman, Cyber Command • Dr. Michael Warner, Command Historian, Cyber Command (on background) • Kirk McConnell, Staff Member on Senate Armed Services Committee • Kevin Gates, Staff Member on House Armed Services Committee • Jim Lewis, Center for Strategic and International Studies • Kim Zetter, Wired

  7. Key Definitions: Deterrence • Figure 1: Hundley’s First Set of RMA Stages • Hundley, Richard. "Past Revolutions, Future Transformations." The RAND Corporation. Accessed December 5, 2014. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1029.pdf. 22. • Figure 3: Metz and Kievit’s RMA Stages • Metz, Steven, and James Kievit. "Strategy and The Revolution in Military Affairs: From Theory to Policy." Strategic Studies Institute. Accessed December 4, 2014. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ssi/stratrma.pdf. 13. Prevention of an action by fear of the consequences created by the existence of a credible threat of unacceptable counteraction

  8. Key Definitions: Strategic Cyber Weapon Malware that irreversibly neutralizes centers of gravity in cyber-dependent economic, military, and political systems and infrastructure

  9. Severity of Cyber Threats Strategic Cyber Weapons State Capability Cutoff Cyber Terrorism Intensity Cyber Espionage Cyber Vandalism Frequency

  10. Strategic Deterrent Characteristics

  11. Characteristics of Strategic Cyber Weapons

  12. Conclusion

  13. Future Pathways and Research

  14. Q&A “Make no mistake, this weapon will change absolutely nothing.” -French Director General of Infantry, commenting on the machine gun before the French parliament, 1910 Hundley, Richard. "Past Revolutions, Future Transformations." The RAND Corporation. Accessed December 5, 2014. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1029.pdf. 44.

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