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Risk Assessment Process

Risk Assessment Process. How Does “Threat” Fit into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process?. Threat Assessment. Planning Factors CBRNE* Scenarios. State Administrative Agency. Risk Assessment. Needs Assessment. Threat Assessment. Desired Capabilities. Current Capabilities.

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Risk Assessment Process

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  1. Risk Assessment Process

  2. How Does “Threat” Fit into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process? Threat Assessment

  3. Planning Factors CBRNE* Scenarios State Administrative Agency Risk Assessment Needs Assessment Threat Assessment DesiredCapabilities Current Capabilities Threat Assessment Vulnerability Assessment Shortfalls or “Gaps”

  4. R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 11 • PTE Defined • Groups or individuals indicating the unlawful use of force or violence • Specifically the utilization of a WMD… • To intimidate or coerce… • Government or civilian population… • Political or social purposes Threat Assessment

  5. Weapons of Mass Destruction (18 USC 2332a) Defines a weapon of mass destruction as (1) any destructive device as defined in section 921 of this title, [which reads] any explosive, incendiary, or poison gas, bomb, grenade, rocket having a propellant charge of more than four ounces, missile having an explosive or incendiary charge of more than one-quarter ounce, mine or device similar to the above; (2) poison gas; (3) any weapon involving a disease organism; or (4) any weapon that is designed to release radiation or radioactivity at a level dangerous to human life. Threat Assessment

  6. Threat Working Group • Law enforcement personnel/intelligence components • Consider all appropriate personnel/agencies • Additional participants should be limited to subject matter experts who advise on terrorism related issues • FBI WMD Coordinator • FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force • Provide information on motives and capabilities of PTE Threat Assessment

  7. Joint Terrorism Task Force • Combines federal, state and local law enforcement • Develop cohesive strategy for identifying, investigating and prosecuting terrorists • Intelligence collection and analysis to prevent terrorist acts • 66 JTTF’s nationwide Threat Assessment

  8. FBI WMD Coordinator • Located within FBI field offices • Assist state and local jurisdictions with identifying WMD threat elements • Assist state and local jurisdictions in their establishment of policies and procedures established for responding to WMD terrorist attacks • Liaison to the Joint Terrorism Task Force Threat Assessment

  9. Law Enforcement On-line (LEO) Threat Assessment

  10. Safeguards • Information sharing limited to working group • No recording or forwarding of sensitive information • Alternatives recognized but require submission using existing format Threat Assessment

  11. Cautions • “Snapshot” of current operational activity within jurisdiction • Assessment does not warrant opening an investigation • Lone offenders and splinter groups should be considered • Different interpretations of threat factors • Tendency to “inflate” results Threat Assessment

  12. R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 12 • Threat Assessment Process • Assessment completion off-line • Organize threat working group • PTE existence • Past violent history • Evidence of intentions • Evidence of capability • Evidence of targeting • Jurisdiction threat rating (highest threat) • On-line entry of threat rating Threat Assessment

  13. R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 14 • Document Threat Working Group • Jurisdiction population and coordinating agency • POC for Threat Working Group • Working group agencies • FBI/Joint Terrorism Task Force participation Threat Assessment

  14. Threat Assessment Factors • Existence: • The presence of a group or individual, operating within the jurisdiction… Threat Assessment

  15. History: • Demonstrated past terrorist activity over time or a recorded, violent criminal history… Threat Assessment

  16. Intentions: • Credible advocacy/threats of force or violence, acts, preparations to act; evidencing intent to create a WMD, carry out a plan to release a WMD, or to participate in a WMD incident Threat Assessment

  17. Capability: • Credible information that a specific PTE possesses the requisite training, skills, finances, and access to resources needed to develop, produce, or acquire a particular type of WMD in a quantity and/or potency sufficient to produce mass casualties, combined with information substantiating the PTE’s ability to safely store, test, and deliver the same Threat Assessment

  18. Targeting: • Credible information indicative of preparations for specific terrorist operations against identifiable targets located within the specified jurisdiction Threat Assessment

  19. R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 16 Threat Factor Values Threat Assessment

  20. Assess PTE Motivations • Political • Religious • Racial • Environmental • Special Interest Threat Assessment

  21. Identify WMD Capabilities of PTE • Chemical • Biological • Radiological • Nuclear • Explosive CBRNE Threat Assessment

  22. Threat Assessment

  23. R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 18 • Jurisdiction Threat Profile process • Number of PTE • Existing PTE capabilities • WMD Threat History • Jurisdiction Threat Rating Threat Assessment

  24. Step 1 - Number of PTE • PTE assessed in your jurisdiction • If no known PTE - a rating of zero is recorded here Threat Assessment

  25. Step 2 - Existing PTE capabilities • Document PTE capabilities • CBRNE Threat Assessment

  26. Step 3 - WMD Threat History • Document threat history • January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2002 Threat Assessment

  27. Step 4 - Threat Rating • Jurisdiction threat rating • Highest threat level Threat Assessment

  28. DISCUSSION Threat Assessment

  29. How Does “Vulnerability” Fit Into the Homeland SecurityStrategic Planning Process? Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  30. Planning Factors CBRNE* Scenarios State Administrative Agency Risk Assessment Needs Assessment Basic Vulnerability Assessment DesiredCapabilities Current Capabilities Vulnerability Assessment Threat Assessment Shortfalls or “Gaps”

  31. Vulnerability Defined • The process of identifying any weaknesses that can be exploited by an adversary to gain access or information • Vulnerabilities can result from, but are not limited to: • Building characteristics • Equipment properties • Personal behavior • Operational practices Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  32. Potential Targets • Facilities • Sites • Systems • Special events R E F E R E N C E : Reference Handbook page B-10 Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  33. Vulnerability Working Group • Multi-discipline members • Include personnel who can provide specific information unique to potential target Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  34. R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 20 4 Step Process Determine Jurisdictional Vulnerability • Highest Worksheet Rating • Jurisdiction Vulnerability • Rating Conduct Individual Target Vulnerability Assessments • Vulnerability Assessment • Worksheets • 7 Assessment Factors Basic Vulnerability Assessment Identify Potential Targets • Critical Assets List • Top 10% (10 or less – all targets) Organize the Assessment Team • Multidiscipline members • Working knowledge of facilities, sites, • systems, or special events

  35. Seven Factors Used to Assess Vulnerability • Level of visibility • Criticality of target site to jurisdiction • Impact outside of the jurisdiction • PTE access to potential target • Potential target threat of hazard • Potential target site population capacity • Potential for collateral mass casualties Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  36. Step 1 - Assess the awareness of the existence and visibility of the target to the general public Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  37. Step 2 - Assess usefulness of assets to local population, economy, government, etc. Potential targets deemed essential to the continuity of the jurisdiction Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  38. Step 3 - Assess the effect loss will have outside of the jurisdiction Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  39. Step 4 - Assess the availability of the target for ingress and egress by a PTE Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  40. Step 5 - Assess the presence of legal WMD material (CBRNE) in quantities that could be the target of a terrorist attack or would complicate the response to an incident at that facility Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  41. Step 6 - Assess the maximum number of individuals at a site at any given time Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  42. Step 7 - Assess potential collateral mass casualties within a one-mile radius of the target site Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  43. Summary score • Rating key • Enter target rating • Document rating for each target Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  44. R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 25 • Final vulnerability rating • Highest vulnerability rating of all site/targets • Include raw score Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  45. Legal Hazards: • Adhere to CBRNE definitions Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  46. R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 27 • Site-Specific Vulnerability Assessment • Survey for ODP • Specialized assessment to harden target • Estimates future assessments required • By jurisdiction Basic Vulnerability Assessment

  47. DISCUSSION Basic Vulnerability Assessment

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