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GOTV Data. Katie Ellis Community Outreach Group. FOLLOWING THE LAW. Elections.neworganizing.com. FOLLOWING THE LAW. www.afj.org. Katie Ellis . Managing Director. Community Outreach Group.

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gotv data

GOTV Data

Katie Ellis

Community Outreach Group

following the law
FOLLOWING THE LAW

Elections.neworganizing.com

slide4
Katie Ellis

Managing Director

Community Outreach Group

slide8

In today’s session, you’ll learn how to choose which voters to contact during GOTV (Get Out the Vote), recruit and allocate volunteer efforts, and get your logistics in order.

slide9

Introduction

  • Review of GOTV Strategy
  • Building Universes
  • Planning Volunteer Capacity
  • GOTV Logistics Calculations
  • Making Adjustments
  • Wrap Up
slide10

Why do we need data?

  • Strategic Use of Limited Resources
  • Setting Strategic Goals & Maintaining Accountability
  • Demonstrating Success & Power
slide11

Why do we need data?

  • Strategic Use of Limited Resources
  • Setting Strategic Goals & Maintaining Accountability
  • Demonstrating Success & Power
slide12

Time

Limited resources

People

Money

slide17

Some basic terms

  • GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number of supporters that turn out to vote.
  • Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day.
  • Modeling Scores – A prediction (based on voter file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will behave.
slide19

Marrying the grid with van

  • Key Question:

How do we match up our conceptual definitions of universes with actual lists of real people?

slide20

Van variables

Voter Status

Demographics

Models

Census Data (sometimes)

Geographic

Contact history

Current and old lists

slide21

Vote likelihood

  • What is the best predictor of an individual voting in an upcoming election:
    • In the 2012 General Election?

2008!

    • In the 2014 General Election?

2010!

    • A special election? Uhhh…
      • Look for other non-regular or low turnout elections
      • Key factors are competitiveness and similar date
  • Turnout Models
slide22

Vote likelihood in 2012

3/3 Midterms

OR

2004 + 2008 + 2010

70 +

2/2 Presidentials

OR

1-2/3 Midterms

30 - 70

All other vote histories

< 30

slide23

Support levels

  • How do you know who supports your issue or not?
    • Polling
    • Organizational Issue or Mission
  • Supporter level assumptions are trickier than vote history—often many variables.
support x turnout
Support x Turnout = ?

All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age <35 NARROW t/o 70+

Women REMOVE age <35 REMOVE 60+ NARROW t/o 70+

Age <35, ADD Women 60+ NARROW Turnout 70+

Age <35, ADD Women 60+ NARROW Turnout 30-70

All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age< 35 NARROW t/o 30-70

Women REMOVE <35 REMOVE 60-120 NARROW t/o 30-70

Women REMOVE age <35 REMOVE 60+ NARROW

t/o<30

All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age <35 NARROW t/o <30

Age <35, ADD Women 60+ NARROW Turnout < 30

slide27

Calculating volunteers

  • How long is one canvass shift?
  • How many doors can one volunteer knock per hour?
  • How many doors can one volunteer knock per canvass shift?
  • Do volunteers go out alone or in pairs?
  • How many shifts are required to knock on 456 doors?
slide28

Calculating volunteers

  • How long is a phonebanking shift?
  • How many calls can a volunteer make per hour?
  • How many calls can a volunteer make per shift?
  • How many shifts are required to make 456 calls?
slide29

EdayPhonebank logistics

  • How many calling shifts are there in a day?
  • How many phone lines do you need?
  • How many pizzas should you order?
slide30

Gotv program planning

  • 250,000 doors
    • How many shifts are required?
  • 15 organizers
    • How many shifts per organizer?
  • 10 days
    • How many shifts per organizer per day?
slide31

Printing logistics

  • 250,000 doors
    • How many pages?
  • 30 pages/minute
    • How many hours?
  • 1500 pages/toner cartridge
    • How many toner cartridges?
  • $30/toner cartridge
    • How much money in toner?
slide32

Printing logistics

  • When does all of your data need to be entered?
slide33

Printing logistics

  • When does all of your data need to be entered?
slide34

Adjusting capacity

  • If need 300 volunteers and can only find 100, what’s next?
    • Find the BEST voters within your targets
      • Constituency
      • Turnout likelihood
      • Party ID
      • Etc
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