Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data – GEMS

1. Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data – GEMS Anthony Hollingsworth ECMWF With thanks to A.Benedetti, A.Dethof, R.Engelen, J-J.Morcrette, J.Flemming, M.Razinger, S.Serrar,A.Simmons, M.Suttie

2. Scope of the Presentation • Overall Objective: GEMS will exploit current huge investments in satellite data to extend NWP Modelling and Data Assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition global and regional scales • Provide a whole new range of services for GMES • Global Deliverables • Regional Deliverables • Progress since Spring 2005 start of GEMS • Schedule for Transition to Operations in 2009 • Sustainability of GEMS: Satellite Provision 2009-2019

3. GMES: Motivations for GEMS • TREATY ASSESSMENT & VALIDATION • Conventions (Kyoto, Montreal, LRTAP) and IPCC need best estimates of sources/ sinks/ transports of atmospheric constituents. • BETTER OPERATIONAL SERVICES • Improved forecasts: excess deaths in summer 2003 heatwave:- 18K in France, at least 33K in western Europe. • SCIENCE • GEMS will synthesise all available satellite & in-situ data into accurate ‘status assessments’, and will meet many needs of the GCOS Implementation Plan

4. GEMS FAQs • Fundamental Objective: Extend the modelling and data-assimilation methods of Numerical Weather Prediction to atmospheric composition incl. Greenhouse gases, Reactive gases, Aerosol • GMES Integrated Project: • 4 years 2005-2009 • €12.5M, • 30 Institutes, • 14 Countries • Web-site www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS • Management • Coordinator A.Hollingsworth(ECMWF) • Greenhouse Gases P.Rayner (F) • Reactive Gases G.Brasseur (D) • Aerosol O.Boucher (UK) • Regional Air Quality V-H.Peuch (F) • Validation H.Eskes (NL) • Global Production System A.Simmons, H.Boettger, (ECMWF),

5. Environmental Concerns have triggered $25B for New satellite missions in 2001-2008 N.America Europe / Collabs. Asia /Collabs. JASON-1 TERRA ENVISATADEOS-II AQUAMSG COSMIC SSMI/S METOP GPM AURA GOCE CALIPSO ADM CLOUDSAT CRYOSAT OCO SMOS Red: in orbit Black: Planned GEMS will use all these satellite resources

6. Organisation of the GEMS Project GEMS is organised in 6 projects Reactive Gases Greenhouse Gases Validation Aerosol Regional Air Quality

7. (iii) GEMS: a distributed system for operations and research The GEMS system -Distributed system for Research and Operations. -Many Regional Systems -Many Global CTMs - A Global Weather system

8. GEMS Global Deliverables: -Operational System for Atmospheric Composition -Retrospective Analyses -Operational mapping of CO2 sources/sinks Global Operational System • By 2009, at ECMWF, an operational global monitoring/ forecast system for atmospheric composition, combining all remotely sensed and in-situ data to create 3 dimensional global distributions [50km (H), 1km (V), 6 hours] of key atmospheric trace constituents: • greenhouse gases (initially including CO2, and progressively adding CH4, N2O, plus SF6 and Radon to check advection accuracy), • reactive gases (initially including O3, NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and gradually widening the suite of species), • aerosols (initially a 15-parameter representation, later ~ 30) • Retrospective Analysis • Provide a retrospective analysis of all accessible in-situ and remotely sensed data on atmospheric dynamics and composition for the ENVISAT-EOS era (1999-2007) • Sources, Sinks and Transports • Monthly/ seasonal maps of the sources, sinks and inter-continental transports, of CO2, O3 and many other trace gases and aerosols, based on in-situ & satellite data

9. GEMS Regional Deliverables: -Regional Air-Quality Forecasts - Improved services for health sector - Mapping of regional sources / deposition • Regional Air Quality: initial & boundary conditions • Provide initial and boundary conditions for operational regional air-quality and ‘chemical weather’ forecast systems • Improved monitoring and forecast services for the health sector • UV exposure and skin cancer • Heat stress and drought • Acute pollution events • Respiratory and Cardiovascular disease • Future • Vector borne and zoonotic disease (cf. malaria experience) • Regional estimation of sources/sinks of CO2, O3, aerosol…

10. a 2003 May June Jul Sept Consistent detection by ESA and NASA instruments of CO2 anomalies over N.America during summer 2003, - in lower troposphere from Schiamachy (left) - in upper troposphere from AIRS (right) - probably due to suppression of photosynthesis by the drought Barkley, Monks & Engelen (to appear, GRL, 2006)

11. Courtesy J-J.Morcrette

12. Ozone Hole 1 Oct 2003 in ECMWF assimilation a) Ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere assimilation on 1 October 2003; b) Vertical cross section of ozone partial pressure along 8W in a); the partial pressure of ozone is almost zero at 15km, over a wide area. Sharpness due to MIPAS c) Comparison of (independent) ozonesonde profile data at Neumayer (70.7S 8.3W) with the assimilated field; the agreement is remarkable. a b c Courtesy: A.Dethof

13. ECMWF Schedule to operational transition of GEMS

14. Time lines of committed and likely missions2009-2019 Time Lines in 2009-2019 for committed operational missions & likely research missions of importance to GEMS activities Greenhouse Gases Reactive Gases Aerosol

15. Greenhouse Gas Provision

16. Aerosol Provision

17. Reactive Gas (UTLS & Air-Quality) Provision

18. Perspectives on GEMS satellite provision 2009-2019 • Sustainability of GEMS products, based on satellite provision 2009-2019 • Greenhouse gases (GHG): Given METOP (2006) & 2008/9 OCO launches, GHG products should be sustainable throughout the period • Aerosol (AER): Given 2009/10 launch of VIIRS on NOAA’s NPP, AER products will be sustainable throughout the period • Global Reactive Gases (GRG) • Given launches of METOP (2006) and NPP (2009/10) launches, GRG Stratospheric Ozone products will be sustainable throughout the period. • No committed Air-Quality mission beyond ENVISAT & AURA • Actions for European scientists • Press for European Air-Quality missions: ESA by 2015, EUMETSAT by 2025 • Urge NASA to extend the lifetime of EOS (TERRA, AQUA, AURA) as far as possible – each was launched with 15 years consumables. • Urge NASA to extend the lifetime of other A-train missions, + GLORY +OCO • Help US scientists persuade current and future US administrations to fund further NASA and NOAA missions.

19. END thank you for your attention!www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/GEMS

20. Contents of the Presentation • Overall Global Objectives • Specific Objectives • Progress since Spring 2005 start • Data issues • Model • Assimilation • First 4D-Var results • Schedule to operational transition in May 2009 • Review of Satellite Provision 2009-2019

21. Early results since the May 2005 start • Data Issues • Increased WMO involvement in Chemical Weather • Data acquisition proceeding well, with considerable cooperation from the space Agencies (ESA,EUMETSAT, NASA, NOAA) • Modelling • Generic capability in the model to advect many (~100) species • In-line parametrisations implemented for Greenhouse gases & Aerosol • Surface fluxes specified climatologically (CO2) & dynamically (Aerosol) • Year-long test runs with specified meteorology and free-running chemistry • 4D-VAR (Four-dimensional variational assimilation) • 3 separate assimilation systems have been built • First assimilations being assessed

23. GEMS: a distributed System for Operational Air Chemistry Monitoring and Forecasting Observations Global CTM 1 Global Data Assimilation System Regional Data Assimilation System I Regional CTM I Global Chemical-Weather Forecast System Regional Chemical-Weather Forecast System I Global CTM N Flow of Products & Information Users of Global Information Users of Regional Information

24. GEMS: a distributed System for Research on Air Chemistry Monitoring and Forecasting Observations Global CTM 1 Global Data Assimilation System Regional Data Assimilation System I Regional CTM I Global Chemical-Weather Forecast System Regional Chemical-Weather Forecast System I Global CTM N Flow of Research Experimentation Researchers on Global Air Chemistry Researchers on Regional Air chemistry

25. April 2003 May 2003 August 2003 October 2003 Carbon dioxide from AIRS Tropospheric (clear-sky) CO2 analysis from COCO FP5 project, compared with JAL/MRI measurements

26. Comparisons with surface CO2 measurements from NOAA/CMDL network – Seasonal cycle From model run with meteorological fields corrected every 12 hours, and specified climatological surface fluxes of CO2

27. ECMWF model north-south CO2 gradients compared to surface flasks Aug2004 Jan 2004 Comparisons between CMDL surface flasks and the free-running ECMWF model show good agreement for the north-south gradients. Southern hemisphere model values are slightly too low (missing biomass burning??) Courtesy R.Engelen & S.Serrar

28. GEMS Aerosol <Observation-First guess> Courtesy A. Benedetti Analysis departures (obs-model) for MODIS aerosol optical depth at 0.55 microns, 12UTC 1 August 2003

29. Single analysis cycle for 12 UTC 1 August 2003 Analysis departures (obs-model) for AOD at 0.55 microns

30. MODIS Image shows Saharan dust advected north over Europe on 5 May 2006 Courtesy R.Engelen

31. Review of satellite provision 2009-2019 • Key uncertainties in satellite provisions 2009-2019 • Uncertain implications of cost overruns in NOAA’s NPP/NPOESS program • NASA’s Earth Observation budget for the next decade is very uncertain • ESA’s priority is uncertain for chemistry in Earth Explorer and Sentinel Programmes • Concerns • Greenhouse Gases • Aerosol • Reactive Gases

32. (i) De-scoped NPP / NPOESS programme Details of the de-scoped NPP / NPOESS programme as presented by DoD, NOAA, NASA to the Nunn- McCurdie hearing House Science Committee 6 June 2006

33. Revised NPP/ NPOESS programme 2009-2022 (i) NPP (Launch not before late-2009, in the PM orbit) • VIIRS, • CrIS, • ATMS • OMPS (nadir only? ~ SBUV + TOMS)) C-1 (launch 2013 - in PM orbit) • VIIRS • CrIS • ATMS • CERES • OMPS-Nadir • SEM • SARSAT (Search and Rescue Sensor) • ADCS (Argos-like data collection system) C-2 (launch 2016 - in AM orbit) • VIIRS • Microwave imager/sounder • SARSAT • Reliance for the mid-AM orbit coverage will be on Metop; • No NPOESS platforms are planned for mid-AM orbit; • If needed, there remains the option of deploying further DMSPs (i.e. one already built and in storage) in mid-AM orbit instead of the AM orbit

34. Revised NPP/ NPOESS programme 2009-2022 (ii) C-3 (launch ~ 2020 - in PM orbit, available no earlier than 2018) VIIRS Microwave imager/sounder CrIS ATMS OMPS-Nadir SEM SARSAT ADCS C-4 (launch currently planned for 2022 - in AM orbit. Available no earlier than 2020) VIIRS Microwave imager/sounder SARSAT

35. Status of the ‘orphaned’ NPOESS Secondary Instruments for Climate, Oceanography…… • CMIS: The current work on the instrument is "terminated“. • ATMS will be the microwave sounder on C-1. • There will be a process of solicitation for a "less capable" microwave imager/sounder available for C-2 and beyond. It is unclear what the main differences will be between this "replacement" instrument and CMIS. • The new version will likely not have the capability for soil moisture observations. • Reliance will be on Metop and DMSP for the near- to medium-term for ocean wind-speed and direction. • APS: Reliance for aerosol observations for the medium-term will be with Glory (launch approx. 2008.) A mitigation strategy for beyond Glory is yet to be developed. • TSIS: Reliance for solar irradiance for the medium-term will be with Glory (launch approx. 2008.) A mitigation strategy for this observation beyond Glory is yet to be developed. • OMPS-Limb: Will not be flown. No mitigation plan mentioned. (OMPS-Nadir *is* still included - in the PM orbit.) • ERBS: In place of ERBS, the CERES instrument (from EOS?) will fly on C-1. No certain plan for after that (so not listed on anything but C-1 above.) • SESS: Instead of SESS, the SEM instrument (from POES?) will be used, and will fly on the PM orbit, starting with C-1. • Radar Altimeter : No altimeter will be flown on NPOESS. There will be the reliance on future Navy mission for altimetry. No clear plan yet.

36. Accommodation of the ‘orphaned’ NPOESS Secondary Instruments for Climate, Oceanography…… The NPOESS bus will have the capability (i.e. physical space) for the ‘secondary sensors’ (APS, TSIS, OMPS-Limb, ERBS, SESS, Altimeter). The NPOESS program ‘will plan and fund for integration’ of the instruments within the NPOESS program, but only if the instruments are provided from "outside the program" (i.e. some other agency or international partner pays for the instrument.)