Assessment of Drought Impact in Balochistan, Pakistan: Case Study

1. Concluding Regional Workshop on Methodologies to Assess Socio-Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters, 19-21 October, 2005 Assessment of Drought Impact in Balochistan, Pakistan: Case Study Engr. Muhammad AzamDirector Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources

2. Part-I: Drought in Balochistan Part-II: Main Result of the Case Study

3. Province-Wise Aridity in Pakistan Geographical Area: 796,044 km2 Desert Area: 110,000 km2

4. Present Land-Use Statistics S.No. Description Area (MHA) 26 Total No. of Districts = 34.720 Total Geographical Area 1. Area not available for cultivation (58.6%) 20.346 ZHOB 2. Forest (5%) H 01.875 A L L U 3. Culturable waste (21.1%) Q D I L 08.715 L A B S A I F U N A L L A . I H K H 4. Fallow (6.5%) S I 02.257 P T A R 5. Net sown 01.528 A I Z I A A T L T A Source: Agriculture Statistics of Balochistan (1996-97) E R U O Q L SIBI KOHLU M A S T U N G T CHAGAI DERA A L BUGTI A K I H H A C K D A B A R I S A KHARAN N KHUZDAR PANJGUR AWARAN TURBAT LASBELA GAWADAR Ormara Pasni Jiwani ARABIAN SEA

6. Livestock Population in Balochistan(million Heads)

7. Major Fruit Production in Balochistan (000, tonnes)

8. Water Resources of Balochistan

9. Major Water Issues in Balochistan • Water Scarcity • High Evaporation Losses (3000 mm) • Low water use efficiencies • Depleting groundwater aquifers

10. Crop Production Systems in Balochistan • Total Cultivated Area: 1.99 Mha • Irrigated Farming: 58% • Canal Irrigation • Karez/Spring Irrigation • Tubewell/Lift Irrigation • Dry Farming: 42% • Sailaba (Floodwater) Irrigation • Khushkaba (Rainfall/Localized Runoff) Irrigation

11. Karez Irrigation Tap and convey groundwater by gravity in open channels or underground tunnels to command areas.

12. Sailaba Irrigation Diversion and Spreading of Intermittent Flow of Hill Torrents

13. Khushkaba Irrigation Crops at the mercy of rain and sheet flow from mountain during rainstorms by constructing low dykes across flow paths in piedmont plains.

14. Drought Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather which persists long enough to produce a serious hydrologic imbalance

15. Types of Drought Slight: When the rains are 50% below normal during a particular crop season Mild: When the rains continue to be 50% below normal for the two crop seasons Moderate: When the rains are 50% below normal and continue for the three consecutive crop seasons Severe: When the below normal rain persists, continues and prolongs up to four crop seasons

16. Average Annual Rainfall

17. Moderate Effected Districts: Zhob, Ziarat Barkhan, Khuzdar, Kohlu, Loralai Musa Khail, Sibi, Severe Effected Districts: Awaran, Bolan, Chagai, Dera Bugti, Gwadar, Jhal Magsi, Mastung, Panjgoor, Pishin, Quetta, Turbat Kalat, Kharan, Kila Saifullah, Kila Abdullah, Lasbela, Khuzdar

18. Part - II Main Results of the Case Study

19. Objectives of the Case Study • To assess socio-economic impacts of drought based on improved methodology • To identify key parameters and possible indicators for measuring impact of drought disaster

20. Adopted Approachfor Drought Impact Assessment • Reviewed preliminary drought reports • Selected study area • Identified key parameters and indicators according to the objectives • Collected damaged data from the relevant Govt. departments, NGOs, individuals, etc. • Conducted interviews of all stake holders • Analyzed the collected data/information • Drafted drought impact assessment report

21. AdoptedCriteria for Selection of Study Area • Accessibility of the study area • Socio economic importance of the area • Visible drought effect due to recorded reduced rainfall • Continuous drop in water tables, river flows and surface reservoirs • Reasonable data/information available for analysis (pre and post drought period) Selected Study Area: Pishin LoraBasin

22. Annual Groundwater Potential in River Basins Source: Balochistan Conservation Strategy, 2000

24. Pishin Lora Basin • Northern highland region of Balochistan • Climate: cold winters and mild summer • Annual precipitation: 150 to 200 mm • Landscape characterized by hill torrents, mountain ranges, piedmont plains and alluvial fans • Soils: calcareous, derived from limestone, sandstones and sedimentary rocks, low in organic matter • Main economy: livestock and agriculture

25. Sub-basins of Pishin-Lora Quetta, Killa Abdullah and Pishin

26. Selected Districts

27. Identified Key Parameters and Indicators

28. Identified Relevant Agencies • Meteorology Office, Quetta • Provincial Agriculture Department • Provincial Irrigation and Power department • Arid Zone Research Centre • Water Resources Development and Planning Centre

29. Interviews of Stakeholders • Participatory appraisal survey (RPA) • Questionnaire development and testing • Questionnaire parameters include land holding, crops/orchards, livestock, living habits, diet, irrigation sources, market prices of items (pre & post drought) • Sample size in each district: 150

30. Direct Losses to Sheet/Goat • Present average market price per head: Rs. 2100/-

31. Indirect Losses to Sheet/Goat Average sale loss: Rs. 1500/-

32. Non-Quantified Indirect Losses • Loss of two completely lost breeding seasons (2001 & 2002) because of reduced conception due to poor feed and health • Abortion in pregnant animals due to poor feed and health • Kid mortality occurred due to shortage of milk with mothers • Drastic reduction in wool and hair

33. Secondary Effects • Reduction in stock buildup capacity • Depletion of flock owners’ ready cash to meet household needs • Affected cottage industries due to reduction in wool and hair • Reduction in meat, milk and milk products Drastic • Increase of mutton prices in Quetta by almost 60%

34. Impact of Drought on Orchards

35. Direct Losses of Apple Orchards

36. Indirect Losses of Apple Orchards • Indirect Losses of Apple Orchards * Market price per kg=Rs20

37. Secondary Effects • Loss of farm labor • Unemployment in the market • Increase in prices • Effect on factory labor • ……..

38. Direct Losses of Wheat Crop * Market price per 40 kg is Rs. 300/-

39. Indirect Losses of Wheat Crop * Market price per 40 kg is Rs. 300/-

40. Secondary Effects • Loss of farm labor • Loss of straw/fodder • Unemployment in the market • Price increase of cereal products • Effect on factory labor • ……..

41. Huna Lake,Quetta

42. Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Tubewells *Drilling cost with pipe assembling = Rs. 1640/m 10% increase in electric motor and electrification = Rs: 40,000/-

43. Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Karezes * Karez discharge = 1 cusec ** Sale price = Rs. 300/hr

44. Indirect Capital Loss of Dried Springs * Spring discharge = 1/2 cusec ** Sale price = Rs. 300/hr

45. Impact of Drought on Diet/Health Diet • Health • Common health complaints: diarrhea, vomiting and fever • Widespread malnutrition among women and children • Life of infants at risk due to shortage of breast milk • More vulnerability in patients of tuberculosis and hepatitis

46. Cumulative Financial Losses during Drought

47. Macro-Economic Impact

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