Adapting to extreme weather: perspectives of social actors

Adapting to extreme weather: perspectives of social actors Eleftheria Vasileiadou, MatthijsHisschemöller, Arthur Petersen, ChannahBetgen, WilcoHazeleger, Iris de Hoog, Erik, Min

Bridging the gap: Problem definition Uncertainties with respect to changes in extreme weather events Need for robust adaptation governance Adaptation options with different, even conflicting, outcomes ... Indicators of extreme events for evaluating adaptation options relevant to stakeholders and robust for modellers

Which perspectives are perceived as most important for adaptation to extreme weather events by different social actors? To what extent do actors’ perspectives correlate to actor characteristics, such as their affiliation with specific sectors, level of concern and knowledge? Research questions

Why perspectives of social actors? • Robust adaptation strategies: scenario independent; beneficial to society inclusion of stakeholders • Tapping in local and tacit knowledge • Ensuring collaboration in adaptation measures The way to find out about this is through a research approach that focuses on identifying the underlying frames that shape social actors´ views and opinions rather than focusing on (volatile) opinions and preferences

Perspectives, meaning… Underlying frames that we use to make sense of our observations and experiences. Personal construct theory with a focus on bipolar constructs e.g. Wet vs. Dry Safe for me vs. Dangerous for me I can intervene vs. I cannot intervene Constructs are both a result of one’s experiences and examination of people and places, as well as they shape how individuals frame their world and experiences.

Determinants of differences in perspectives Affiliation with economic sectors Level of information Involvement in events and workshops Level of concern

Immediate response to extreme weather: public health (6); crisis management (5); water sector (6) Affected by extreme weather: hospitality (6); recreation (9); transportation (5), Vulnerable individuals (4) Total: 41 interviews Case sectors

Bipolar constructs can be found, using as probing devices the “elements”: instances of the topic under investigation. Repertory Grid Technique

How are two photos similar and different from the third? Example 1 2 3

Procedure Select the 3 “most important constructs, for adaptation to extreme weather events” Rankingon a 1-7 scale all photos on these selected constructs Factor analysis of 121 constructs(PCA) Additional questions: • How informed you feel? (1-7) • How concerned you feel? (1-7), • Have you participated before in relevant events?(0/1)

Findings

“Very disastrous, rescue needed!” (12 interviewees) i.e. Very disastrous --------------------------------------- least disastrous Rescue needed fast --------------------------------- help can wait Violent/ you can do little about --------------------peaceful and calm Perspective 1

“New versus old weather extremes” (13 interviewees) i.e. High temperatures ------------------------------low temperatures No impact on transportation------------------ Impacts on transportation Happens the recent years---------------------happens since long Perspective 2

“Prepare for (material) damage” (8 interviewees) i.e. Damage on electricity infrastructure-------no damage on electricity infras. Need to prepare ------------------------------- no need to prepare Causes maximal damage ------------------- causes no damage Perspective 3

“People involved” (4 interviewees) i.e. Health impacts-------------------------------- No health impacts Induced by humans-------------------------- not induced by humans Response with help-------------------------- no response with help Perspective 4

“Beyond imagination” (8 interviewees) i.e. Extreme------------------------------------------------ not extreme Complete disaster-----------------------------------not complete ramp Not possible to intervene-------------------------- possible to intervene Perspective 5

“Natural resources management” (3 interviewees) i.e. Related to water (shortage) -------------- not related to water (shortage) Threat to food production------------------no threat to food production Complex adaptation measures ----------simple adaptation measures Perspective 6

Determinants

Adaptation governance • immediate help and crisis management (perspective 1); • addressing heat waves and drought(perspective 2); • preparing infrastructure for storms (perspective 3); • addressing events that endanger human lives and have victims (perspective 4); • natural resource management and spatial planning (perspective 6). Are robust strategies, covering multiple perspectives, possible? Perspectives are cross-sectoral: Sector-specific strategies may be too limiting

Coldest winter day in the year: 1oC to 2.9oC warmer Hottest summer day in the year: 1oC to 3.8oC warmer Long periods of precipitation in winter: 4% to 12% increase Extreme storms in summer: 5% to 27% increase No insight for changes in wind extremes How do extremes change in the future? KNMI’06 scenarios for 2050

Communicating extremes We need to re-think the role and impact of events and workshops: participants use formal and elaborate perspectives, but they don’t necessarily feel the need to prepare! They may feel more prepared, but less concerned about extreme weather!

Adapting to extreme weather: perspectives of social actors