Discussions over Auto Fuel Policy & opportunities to tighten it. Sumit Sharma TERI, New Delhi. Background. India since 1950 : Population, index of industrial production and number of vehicles have grown 3.3, 50, and 460 times, respectively
TERI, New Delhi
BS-I to BS-IV
Auto Fuel Vision 2025
More than 80% cities violate the standards of RSPM
Source: CPCB, NAMP data
NOx & vehicles
Banning old vehicles Cleaner fuels and vehicles
So what ?
but why transport sector ?
Others: tractors, trailors, three wheelers (passenger vehicles), etc
MoRTH, ROAD TRANSPORT YEAR BOOK (2009-10 & 2010-11), http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/mainlinkFile/File838.pdf
Data WDI, 2011
Source: CPCB, 2010
Highest contributor to NOx emissions in India
Gaseous pollutants (NOx, SO2, VOCs) lead to secondary PM formation and acids
NOx and VOCs can lead to formation of ground level Ozone (impacts health + agriculture)
BC (a constituent of PM) has a significant warming potential.
Reductions have been made in vehicular emissions !!
One set of standards for air quality
Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for 13 cities and rest of the country
Many other cities in the country are much more polluted than the ones where better quality fuel is presently provided.
Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities, may fill the inferior quality fuel and may end up choking their engines
No road map after 2010
PM reductions have been more than NOx
*13 cities : Selected in AFP, 2002 for advanced implementation of BS norms
** Other cities which show higher increase in RSPM in the last 8 years.
Data source : CPCB, NAMP
Why invest in newer fuels and vehicles ?
Our current vehicular fleet is going to grow from 100 million to about 350 million
Share of older vehicles is going to diminish
However, I&M is a must not only for old but also for new vehicles
Euro IV/V equivalent fuel quality (diesel and petrol) have much reduced sulphur content which will help to improve air quality.
It will enable the use of advanced emissions control technologies on light duty and heavy duty diesel vehicles.
Reach of CNG would still be limited.
Expanding the reach of EURO IV/V equivalent fuel to the entire country would reap considerable air quality benefits.
This is going to cost really high ? million to about 350 million
Hart Energy and MathPro found the refinery investments needed to transition to ULSFs in India to be around $4.2 billion (~25 k crores)
An incremental increase of few % of the present fuel price per litre will do
In California it costed about 2.5 cents per gallon.
Few extra months of on-going diesel price increase will do.
OK lets do some hotspot? cities ! needed to transition to ULSFs in India to be around $4.2 billion (~25 k crores)
Limited benefit: More than 600 Class I-VI cities. Vehicle sales dispersed away from large urban centers.
Trucks—which are the largest emitters of NOx and PM—still on BS-III ?
Treating citizens differently
Why not other sectors ? sales dispersed away from large urban centers.
Its not the question of either/or sales dispersed away from large urban centers.
Transport (dominant in cities)
Why urgency ? sales dispersed away from large urban centers.
Lets do it by 2025 !
May cost more in future sales dispersed away from large urban centers.
Health benefits would reduce
Benefits could be larger .. sales dispersed away from large urban centers.
Why India should do it ? sales dispersed away from large urban centers.
Europe, the United States, and Japan implemented low-sulfur fuels years ago
Developing countries like China, South Africa, Mexico, and Brazil have plans to reduce fuel sulfur levels in the near future
Conclusions fuels years ago
Conclusions fuels years ago
Thanks fuels years ago