Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it
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Discussions over Auto Fuel Policy & opportunities to tighten it. Sumit Sharma TERI, New Delhi. Background. India since 1950 : Population, index of industrial production and number of vehicles have grown 3.3, 50, and 460 times, respectively

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Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Discussions over Auto Fuel Policy & opportunities to tighten it

Sumit Sharma

TERI, New Delhi


Background

Background

  • India since 1950 : Population, index of industrial production and number of vehicles have grown 3.3, 50, and 460 times, respectively

  • 53 cities million plus cities. expected to grow to 85 by 2025

  • 31% urbanisation , expected to grow to 38% by 2025.

  • Unprecedented growth of personal vehicles in India.

  • Aspirations to own personal vehicles reinforced by limited public transport

  • Growth of vehicles far more in cities, leading to congestion and emissions and effects over health .


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Auto Fuel Policy : 2002

BS-I to BS-IV

Auto Fuel Vision 2025


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Why at all we worry about air pollution ?


Air quality in india

Air quality in India

2011

2010

More than 80% cities violate the standards of RSPM

Source: CPCB, NAMP data


Satellite view aod

Satellite view (AOD)


Urban air quality delhi pm10

Urban air quality (Delhi)- PM10

NOx & vehicles

Banning old vehicles Cleaner fuels and vehicles

Shift industries


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

OK, air pollution is high !

So what ?


Impacts

Impacts

  • Sufficient evidence to document the causal relationship with the onset of childhood asthma, non-asthma respiratory diseases, impaired lung function, cardiovascular mortality and morbidity.

  • GBD estimates, about 6 lakh mortalities attributed annually to ambient air pollution in the country.

  • WHO, 2012 Diesel exhausts are carcinogens

  • Effects on vegetation, visibility, ecology etc

  • It warms too ..

  • Impacts image …


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

OK it impacts,

but why transport sector ?


Growth in number of motor vehicles

Growth in Number of Motor Vehicles

  • Over 1/3rd of the total vehicles in 53 million +cities

  • Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population

Others: tractors, trailors, three wheelers (passenger vehicles), etc

11

MoRTH, ROAD TRANSPORT YEAR BOOK (2009-10 & 2010-11), http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/mainlinkFile/File838.pdf


Vehicular growth

Vehicular growth

  • About 28000 two wheelers, and 4200 cars added to India’s vehicular fleet daily (2011)

  • As per Census 2011, 21% households have two wheelers whereas 4.7 % have cars/jeeps/vans

  • More growth expected

Data WDI, 2011


Source apportionment study pm

Source apportionment study (PM)

  • Share of transport sector increases if we move from PM10 to PM2.5 (finer fractions)

  • In non-industrial cities, it is the largest source

Source: CPCB, 2010


Source apportionment study nox

Source apportionment study- NOx


Transport its not just pm

Transport – Its not just PM !!

Highest contributor to NOx emissions in India

Gaseous pollutants (NOx, SO2, VOCs) lead to secondary PM formation and acids

NOx and VOCs can lead to formation of ground level Ozone (impacts health + agriculture)

BC (a constituent of PM) has a significant warming potential.

15


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Auto Fuel Policy has been made !!

Reductions have been made in vehicular emissions !!


Auto fuel policy 2002 regional differentiation

Auto Fuel Policy 2002REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION

One set of standards for air quality

Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for 13 cities and rest of the country

Many other cities in the country are much more polluted than the ones where better quality fuel is presently provided.

Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities, may fill the inferior quality fuel and may end up choking their engines

No road map after 2010


Effects of introduction of bs norms 2010 on emissions

Effects of introduction of BS norms (2010) on emissions

-19%

PM reductions have been more than NOx

TERI’s estimation


Impact of afp o n air quality rspm

Impact of AFP on air quality (RSPM)

*13 cities : Selected in AFP, 2002 for advanced implementation of BS norms

** Other cities which show higher increase in RSPM in the last 8 years.

Data source : CPCB, NAMP


Learnings from auto fuel policy 2002

Learnings from Auto Fuel Policy, 2002

  • Heavy duty trucks (highest contributors to PM) could not achieve BS-IV norms due to unavailability of fuel across the country

  • Very high growth of vehicles negated the benefits provided by AFP 2002. Further advancement required

  • Focus more on PM control and less reductions achieved in NOx , and hence, further advancements required

  • Old driving cycles used for testing may not result in on-road reductions as depicted during emissions tests.


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

It’s the old vehicles which contribute

Why invest in newer fuels and vehicles ?


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Our current vehicular fleet is going to grow from 100 million to about 350 million

Share of older vehicles is going to diminish

However, I&M is a must not only for old but also for new vehicles


Benefits of cleaner fuel

Benefits of cleaner fuel

Euro IV/V equivalent fuel quality (diesel and petrol) have much reduced sulphur content which will help to improve air quality.

It will enable the use of advanced emissions control technologies on light duty and heavy duty diesel vehicles.

Reach of CNG would still be limited.

Expanding the reach of EURO IV/V equivalent fuel to the entire country would reap considerable air quality benefits.


Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms

Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

This is going to cost really high ?


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Hart Energy and MathPro found the refinery investments needed to transition to ULSFs in India to be around $4.2 billion (~25 k crores)

An incremental increase of few % of the present fuel price per litre will do

In California it costed about 2.5 cents per gallon.

Few extra months of on-going diesel price increase will do.


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

OK lets do some hotspot? cities !


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Limited benefit: More than 600 Class I-VI cities. Vehicle sales dispersed away from large urban centers.

Trucks—which are the largest emitters of NOx and PM—still on BS-III ?

Treating citizens differently


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Why not other sectors ?


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Its not the question of either/or

Transport (dominant in cities)

Cook-stoves

Industries


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Why urgency ?

Lets do it by 2025 !


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

May cost more in future

Health benefits would reduce


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Benefits could be larger ..

  • Health impacts of only PM

    • NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or synergistically aggravate the impacts

  • Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants

  • Climate benefits are additional

    • Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon concentrations too


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Why India should do it ?


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Europe, the United States, and Japan implemented low-sulfur fuels years ago

Developing countries like China, South Africa, Mexico, and Brazil have plans to reduce fuel sulfur levels in the near future


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Conclusions

  • Air quality in Indian cities is severely deteriorated

  • Transport sector is one of the important source contributing to finer fractions of PM, and NOx

  • Effects on health, agriculture, acid rain, and global warming.

  • After AFP,2002, no road map for future.

  • BS-IV cities show lesser increase or decrease in PM concentrations and hence BS-IV quality fuels (50 ppm sulphur) should be provided all cross the country by 2015.

  • ‘One country, one fuel and one standard’ in India


Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

Conclusions

  • BS-norms needs to be advanced to BS-V and BS-VI levels (by 2019) to improve air quality and reduce health impacts

  • Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel (10 ppm) is critical to achieve BS-VI levels through installation of DPFs

  • Commissioning of an effective I&M system across country

    • Inuse vehicle testing program

    • Strengthed I&M program

    • Relook at driving cycles to prescribe emission norms

  • Development of a fleet modernization programme

  • Measures for reducing energy demand from the sector

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    Discussions over auto fuel policy opportunities to tighten it

    Thanks


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