gcm simulations for west africa validation against observations and projections for future change
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G.Jenkins, A.Gaye, A. Kamga, A. Adedoyin, A. Garba, A. Sarr AF20

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GCM simulations for West Africa: Validation against observations and projections for future change. G.Jenkins, A.Gaye, A. Kamga, A. Adedoyin, A. Garba, A. Sarr AF20. NCAR Climate System Model. Version 1.3 (Gent and Boville, 1998) Atmosphere 2.8   2.8  , 18 vertical levels

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gcm simulations for west africa validation against observations and projections for future change

GCM simulations for West Africa: Validation against observations and projections for future change

G.Jenkins, A.Gaye, A. Kamga, A. Adedoyin, A. Garba, A. Sarr

AF20

ncar climate system model
NCAR Climate System Model
  • Version 1.3 (Gent and Boville, 1998)
  • Atmosphere 2.8 2.8, 18 vertical levels
  • Ocean component - variable resolutions 2.3 at the poles, 1.2 at the Equator, 45 vertical levels
  • Dynamic/thermodynamic Sea ice component
  • Land surface model (LSM)
  • Forced by greenhouse gases using starting times of 1870. Integrated out to 2100 using A1, A2 and B2 scenarios.
  • CSM has a relatively low climate sensitivity.
current status
Current Status
  • 2003- Analysed NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) version 1.3 A1 scenario for West Africa.
  • 2004- NCAR CSM simulations of West Africa : Present-day and 21st Century Anthropogenic Climate change, Kamga et al. under review, JGR-Atmospheres
  • 2004- Drive the regional climate model with CSM data
  • 2004- Will write up RegCM/CSM for publication
climate change climate variability linkage in west africa
Climate Change- Climate Variability linkage in West Africa
  • Observed
    • Reduced Rain rates associated with:
    • A southward shift in AEJ (700 hPa)
    • A weaker TEJ (200 hpa)
    • Warmer surface temps.
  • Can we use observed changes as a fingerprint for future climate and rain rates?
reduction in the area of lake chad
Reduction in the Area of Lake Chad

25000 km2

To 1350 km2

from reduced rain

and irrigation

conclusion
Conclusion
  • CSM suggest that the region will become:
  • Warmer by 1.5-2.5C based on SRES scenarios.
  • Wetter --especially in the Sahel - due to an increase in low-level moisture (strengthening of monsoon flow).
  • Only small changes noted for Easterly waves.
  • CSM has significant biases in SLP, Surface air temperatures, precipitation and 200 hpa Zonal winds.
future activities
Future Activities
  • Downscaling -- running a regional climate model (RegCM) for present-day and future climates.
  • Identifying biases in both GCM and regional climate model simulations.
  • Publishing results.
  • Work to reduce biases in GCM/RegCM.
  • Will use CSM 2.0 and CSM 3.0 data in the future.
  • Build human scientific capacity for decades of future research!!
future directions
Future Directions
  • Analyze CCSM 2.0/3.0- Biases in Sea level Pressure, upper level winds much smaller.
  • Use A1, A2, B2 simulations from new CCSM runs to drive regional climate model.
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