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The Outlook for the U.S. Economy

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy. August 16, 2013. Larry DeBoer Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University. Forecast record. Some Macroeconomic Forecasts for 2014. Real GDP Growth. GDP Component Growth. Real Consumer Spending. Consumer Sentiment (U Mich ). 7/13: 85.1.

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The Outlook for the U.S. Economy

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  1. The Outlook for the U.S. Economy August 16, 2013 Larry DeBoer Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

  2. Forecast record

  3. Some Macroeconomic Forecasts for 2014

  4. Real GDP Growth

  5. GDP Component Growth

  6. Real Consumer Spending

  7. Consumer Sentiment (U Mich) 7/13: 85.1

  8. Household Debt Payments, Percent of Personal Income

  9. Monthly Supply of Homes and Real Home Price Percent Change (Quarterly Averages) “Seven Month Rule-of-Thumb”

  10. Housing Starts

  11. Building Permits

  12. Mortgage Interest Rate

  13. Capital Goods Orders Growth

  14. Corporate Bond Interest Rates, Less Risky (AAA) and More Risky (BAA) BAA AAA

  15. Interest Rate Spread, Corporate BAA - AAA

  16. Real Federal and State/Local Government Purchases Growth Federal State/Local

  17. Federal Budget Balance, percent of GDP (quarterly)

  18. Real Export and Import Growth

  19. Exchange Rates: Euros and Yuan per Dollar Chinese Yuan European Euros

  20. Unemployment Rate

  21. Labor Force Growth

  22. Employment-Population Ratio

  23. CPI Inflation Rates All Items Core (less food and energy)

  24. Monetary Base (Cash plus Bank Reserves) QE3 QE2 QE1

  25. Federal Funds Interest Rate

  26. Who will chair the Fed? Janet Yellen Lawrence Summers

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