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Flu + Avian Flu Panic or Pandemic

Flu + Avian Flu Panic or Pandemic. Patrick Nearney Swindon/Bath GP Registrar DRC 23/11/05. AIMS. Distinguish fact from fiction Background – science Impact Management- organisational - clinical. Fact or Fiction?. A) No turkey for Christmas!

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Flu + Avian Flu Panic or Pandemic

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  1. Flu + Avian Flu Panic or Pandemic Patrick Nearney Swindon/Bath GP Registrar DRC 23/11/05

  2. AIMS • Distinguish fact from fiction • Background – science • Impact • Management- organisational - clinical

  3. Fact or Fiction? • A) No turkey for Christmas! • B) I’ll have to cancel my holiday to Turkey now • C) 5-150 million worldwide deaths may occur from an avian flu pandemic

  4. Fact or Fiction? • A) I’ll be alright- flu just kills old people! • B) I’ll be alright I’ve had the flu vaccine! • C) I’ll be alright my Tamiflu I got from e- bay will save me!

  5. Timescale of a flu pandemic

  6. Possible impact flu pandemic on General Practice • UK mortality >50,000 c.f 12,000 currently • Over 15 week wave small GP practice (3800 patients) can expect - 942 cases (>200 per week at peak) - 4 excess deaths - 100 extra consultations

  7. Challenges to Managing Flu Pandemic General Practice

  8. Challenges to Managing Flu Pandemic General Practice • Organisation • Staff illness • Worried well • Drug distribution

  9. Clinical Management • Diagnosis • Treatment • Prophylactic antibiotics • Admission

  10. Summary • We don’t know the full impact of a flu pandemic on UK • Despite 450 pages of documents there is a lot that will have to be decided at the time

  11. Take heart the nation pulled together in World War II !

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