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India’s Energy Security Perspectives “Scenarios & Strategies”

India’s Energy Security Perspectives “Scenarios & Strategies”. Contents. Introduction Oil and Gas Scenario Promoting Conservation and Efficiency Technology Absorption Challenges and Opportunities Perspective Core Strategies. Average Annual GDP & Population Growth : 2005-2030.

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India’s Energy Security Perspectives “Scenarios & Strategies”

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  1. India’s Energy Security Perspectives “Scenarios & Strategies”

  2. Contents • Introduction • Oil and Gas Scenario • Promoting Conservation and Efficiency • Technology Absorption • Challenges and Opportunities • Perspective • Core Strategies

  3. Average Annual GDP & Population Growth : 2005-2030 Source: EIA, IEO2008

  4. Fuel for the rising Indian population India's population reach 2 billion? It is a real possibility over the long term Source : Population Reference Bureau

  5. Growth in Electricity Sector

  6. Prices – High & Volatile

  7. Despite High Prices, the demand is stronger • Since 2003, world oil consumption has growth has averaged 1.8% per year. • Non-OECD countries, especially China, India, and the Middle East, constitutes the largest part of this growth. 1.0 (est.) Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2008

  8. World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type History Projections 33% 29% Liquids 37% Natural Gas 24% Coal 27% Share of World Total 23% Renewables 8% 8% 6% Nuclear 6% Source: EIA, IEO2008

  9. World Liquids Consumption by Region % Change 2005-2030 11% 102% 3% 7% 42% 62% Non-OECD 43% 47% Source: EIA, IEO2008

  10. Worldwide Decline in Production Does it look like that top 10 International Oil Companies have already passed Peak production ?? • Current Annual Oil Production in World : 85 Million bpd • World’s Average Production Decline : 3.3 Million bpd / 4% Per Annum • Saudi production : 10.5 Million bpd • World needs One new Saudi Arabia every three years to offset the decline

  11. Crude – Indigenous Production and Imports History Projections

  12. India :Yawning Demand Supply Gap – “Oil” Source: BP Statistical Review 2007 • Oil production almost stagnated ~34 MMT • Oil consumption – more than 3 times of oil production • Huge supply demand gap > 80 MMT • Crude oil import burden ~ USD 64 Billion [Rs. 256,000 Crore] • > 33% of total import

  13. Deepwater Oil and Gas to show strong growth

  14. Worldwide Unconventional Production, 2005 - 30 Source: EIA, IEO2008

  15. Global Transportation sector dominates liquid fuel consumption History Projections Transportation million barrels per day Industrial Electric Power Residential and Commercial Source : AEO 2008

  16. Transportation Energy – More for Light Vehicles History Projections Light-Duty Vehicles quadrillion Btu Heavy-Duty Vehicles Air Rail Water Source : AEO 2008

  17. Transport Fuel Forecast - 2030 • 2008 : 800 Million Cars Worldwide • Car and Oil Demand growing • No existing alternative to Oil as fuel • Demand Growth in Transport Fuel : • OECD : + 27 % • Non OECD : + 111 %

  18. Transport Fuel Demand Look 2014, India to reach 4th Position in light Vehicle Market after US, China & Japan Look 2010, Ten Thousand New Buses for New Delhi Jazz, Cruse, M 300, Santa Fe, A-Star, Escudo, Ingenio, C 30, C 70 – the upcoming cars

  19. What is driving the Indian Liquid demand ? Source : MoPNG

  20. Optimizing Fuel Consumption • Estimation of Energy Efficiency Scenario in India (Saving Potential): • Total Energy Consumption : 411 MMTOE • Oil & Gas Consumption : 168 MMTOE • Average Saving Potential : 22% • Total Oil & Gas Saving Potential : 37 MMTOE • Money Equivalent : Rs. 74,000 Crore

  21. Fuel losses at Intersections Estimation of Fuel wasted by vehicles at cross sections/ junctions/ signals due to idling / congestion of traffic Extrapolated to nine Metros, the annual fuel loss is approx. 6.36 Million barrels (~ 0.9 MMT) per annum, approx. Rs. 4506 Crore at current fuel prices.

  22. Natural Gas – Indigenous Production and LNG Import

  23. India: Upcoming Sources of Natural Gas • Major Contributors • ONGC moving ahead • 56 MMSCMD now (Offshore+Onshore) • G1 – GS15 : 2 MMSCMD by 2009 • Vashistha + S1 : 6 MMSCMD by 2011-12 • KG DWN 98/2 : 27 MMSCMD by 2013-14 • Mahanadi : 12 MMSCMD by 2013-14 • OIL • JV • LNG • Petronet LNG Capacity doubling to 12 MMMTPA • Import at Dabhol, Kochi & Mangalore • RLNG • Reliance additions • 40 MMSCMD by 2008 • 80 MMSCMD by 2009 • 120 MMSCMD by 2010 110 + MMSCMD Now 250 + MMSCMD by 2011 - 12

  24. India’s LNG Supply Outlook • LNG Imports in India to triple in the XIth Five Year Plan

  25. Global LNG Trade • 99 LNG Carriers to be delivered in 2008 -09 & 32 ordered for 2010-12 • 5 Liquefaction Plants to come on line in 2009, another 7 expected in 2010-12 • Production to Grow by 86% by 2016

  26. Global Gas Trade Evolvement Present Future (Source: CRISIL Report on Natural Gas: Annual Review)

  27. Impact of Technology – Shaping Future of Mumbai High • MH a “Matured field” • Several rounds of inputs during last 32 years. • Major redevelopment program launched 2000-2001. • Redevelopment program of installation of new platforms, expansion of surface facilities and drilling of infill wells. • Implementation spanning over seven years, reversed declining trend, boosted production and added new reserves.

  28. Technology Induction “Increasing Recovery - Arresting Decline” • Q Marine Seismic • Geo-Steering • Electromagnetic Sea Bed Logging • Stim Gun Stimulation • Coil Tubing Assisted Stimulation • Tubing Disappearing Smart Plug • Smart Unmanned platform • Compact Cyclonic Degasser • Virtual Metering • Intelligent Auto Gas Lifts • Semi Intelligent Segmented Completion • Under Balanced Drilling

  29. Proposed Investment XIth Plan(PSU): ONGC 82672 Crore OVL 58674 Crore OIL 10176 Crore IOCL 45215 Crore HPCL 32285 Crore BPCL 12553 Crore GAIL 12159 Crore …etc. Total 2,69,000+ Crores Challenges & Opportunities : Investments Planned Oil and Gas Sector Investment (2007-2017) ($ Bn) • Attracting investment from global players – directly and in partnerships (PI/ JV) • Taping domestic capital markets Overall investment in Oil & Gas sector in the next 10 years ~ $80-100 bn

  30. Perspective • World Wide energy Consumption projected to grow by 50% by 2030. • 84% growth in Non OECD countries like India and China. • Crude Oil prices expected to remain high • New Sources available mainly in harsh environments

  31. Perspective • Technologies to push recoveries from aging fields • Look for acreages abroad • Huge Infrastructure Growth supported by Institutions • Increased R&D efforts for alternatives

  32. Some Core Strategies for India • Moderate the demand through improved efficiency • Expand and Diversify supplies from non conventional sources • Partnering Global Energy Security • Fast Track Technology Initiatives to improve recovery and explore harsh environments

  33. the next stop for India Thanks 2 billion Population  .2 billion  Oil, why not ?

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