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On the role of Scenario’s for Defence (and Security) Planning

On the role of Scenario’s for Defence (and Security) Planning . Velingrad, Bulgaria 21-25 October 2006. NATO Science Committee. Advanced Research Workshop Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector. Ren é Willems Strategy and Policy Studies

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On the role of Scenario’s for Defence (and Security) Planning

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  1. On the role of Scenario’s for Defence (and Security) Planning Velingrad, Bulgaria 21-25 October 2006 NATO Science Committee Advanced Research Workshop Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector René Willems Strategy and Policy Studies TNO Defence and Security

  2. Netherlands Organisation for Applied Research TNO Core Areas TNO Defence, Security and Safety TNO Science and Industry TNO Quality of Life TNO Built Environment and Geosciences TNO Information and Communication Technology ARW Velingrad

  3. Contents • Challenges • Coping with Uncertainty • Strategic Planning • Scenario’s and Analysis • Illustrative Example • In Summary ARW Velingrad

  4. the world today • Global shifts in power • Ideological and cultural differences underlined • Technological developments fasten • Globalisation and access to information and production  And our understanding of how things work together lacks. We are hardly able to argue and predict likely futures, values and costs. ARW Velingrad

  5. Towards non-linear complex systems Linear system Complex system Input Input Own initiative predictable actors and interactions Dead end streets Unpredictable actors and interactions Unpredictable output Predictable output ARW Velingrad

  6. Contents • Challenges • Coping with Uncertainty • Strategic Planning • Scenario’s and Analysis • Illustrative Example • In Summary ARW Velingrad

  7. Level of agreement for consensus Amount of evidence (theories, observations, models) Deep Uncertainty Deep uncertainty: When we do not know, and/or key parties to the decision do not agree on, the system model, prior probabilities, and/or “cost” function (Lempert e.a. 2004) ARW Velingrad

  8. Coping with Uncertainty • Ignore ARW Velingrad

  9. Known Trends Facts Causality Drivers Unknown Low High Availability of information Tools for Strategic Foresight Prediction Scenarios Projection ARW Velingrad Source: After R. Leemans 2003

  10. Different approaches to dealing with uncertainty ARW Velingrad Source: Robert Lempert, RAND, 2004

  11. Contents • Challenges • Coping with Uncertainty • Strategic Planning • Scenario’s and Analysis • Illustrative Example • In Summary ARW Velingrad

  12. Long Term Planning In Defence and Security ARW Velingrad

  13. Capability Based Planning Require-ments Missions Risk- analysis Task areas Tasks Capacities (Soll/Ist) Priorities Foresights Planning scenario's Analysis Prevention Response Evaluation Task List Capacities-list Overall Security Picture ARW Velingrad

  14. NATO DRR ARW Velingrad

  15. Linear planning “assumes A future” Most Likely Future Today MasterPlan Scenario planning uses a range of potential futures Alternative Futures Robust Strategies Viable Across a Range of Potential Futures Today (modern) adaptive planning ARW Velingrad Source: After US Dos, 2005

  16. Risk and Uncertainty in Capability Planning Worldview Self image Threat assessment (Nat) Ambitions Scenarios (foreign and security policy) Societal Developments Desired capabilities Technological Objective Force Legacy Force (current doctrine developments (Doctrine, organization, etc) organization, etc) Policy making (transformation + processes) ARW Velingrad

  17. Contents • Challenges • Coping with Uncertainty • Strategic Planning • Scenario’s and Analysis • Illustrative Example • In Summary ARW Velingrad

  18. An outline or synopsis of a play The book of an opera Screenplay Shootin list Michael Porter : a scenario is an internally consistent view on the future, not a prediction but a possible result Stories, an old way of organizing knowledge Scenario ARW Velingrad

  19. The world according to .. ARW Velingrad

  20. …and a different view ARW Velingrad

  21. NATO characteristics • What aspects of NATO are subject to change? • ‘Wild Cards’ • High-impact events • ‘Drivers’ • Trends • Processes • Uncertainties Images of future worlds • Plot • Captures the dynamics • Communicates effectively Anatomy of scenario-exercises • Boundaries • Spatial: global • Thematic • Temporal :2025+ Source: After P. Raskin 2002 ARW Velingrad

  22. Contents • Challenges • Coping with Uncertainty • Strategic Planning • Scenario’s and Analysis • Illustrative Example • In Summary ARW Velingrad

  23. DRR and the CMF LTCR derivation process Key input data Mission Types (e.g. Peace Keeping) & Generic Planning Situations • WP1 (Security environments) • Strategic foresight • Security trends • Strategic implications Mission Types (e.g. Peace Keeping) & Generic Planning Situations Mission Types (e.g. Peace Keeping) & generic Planning Situations WP5 (Methodology development) Future worlds • Mission analysis • Effects • Capability-Needs statements • Strategic -> Operational • WP2 (Future role of NATO) • Configuration • Ambition • WP3 (Future technology) • Technology trends influencing military capability needs – presenting opportunities • Comparison of technology trends with trends outlined in existing LTCRs Capabilities Gap Analysis (existing LTCR vs. capability req.) Capability Management Framework • WP4 (Future concepts/doctrines) • Summary of developing concepts and their future implications (with ICTs) • Identification and outline of concepts that need to be developed Prioritization Prioritized list of new LTCR (by 7 TOA) NATO Long Term Requirements Study ARW Velingrad

  24. ? Matrix of Drivers and Characteristics Character- istics ‘Drivers’ Notional examples!!! ARW Velingrad

  25. Axes ARW Velingrad

  26. Scenario-exercises ARW Velingrad

  27. Identifying driver categories ARW Velingrad

  28. Operationalizing driver categories(2) Dominant forces Markets A Economic B F G Political C E State Actors D Non-State Actors ARW Velingrad

  29. Future worlds ARW Velingrad

  30. Combining Future Worlds with Planning Situation Mission Types ARW Velingrad

  31. In Summary • deep uncertainty wrt the security environment; • capabilities of forces be adaptive and flexible; • planning for a flexible approach; • systematic approach to guide decision makers; • scenario’s and scenario-analyses in support. ARW Velingrad

  32. Literature selection • van der Heijden, Scenarios, The art of strategic conversation, Wiley and Sons, 1996 • Lempert a.o., Shaping the next one hundred years, new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis; the RAND Pardee Center, 2003 • Ogilvy & Schwartz, Plotting your scenariosGBN 1998/2004 • Gill Ringland: Scenarios in Business, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-84382-9 • Scenarios in Public Policy, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-84383-7 • Schwartz, The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world • Robert van Oorschot : Future Management, the paradox of a controllable future (2003) • Global Business Environment Shell International : People and Connections, Global scenarios to 2020 • S de Spiegeleire, R Korteweg : Military Matters - future NATO’s NATO review, summer 2006, • Lt Col T W Russell, Generic Strategic Campaign Planning, D Strat Plans / JDCC, May 2005 ARW Velingrad

  33. Source: The Far Side, Gary Larson Long Term Planning Conference The picture’s pretty bleak, gentlemen – The world’s climate is changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain the size of a walnut ARW Velingrad

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