Report from ilc globalgroup 5 cost and engineering updates since snowmass
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Report from ILC GlobalGroup 5: Cost and Engineering (Updates since Snowmass). Wilhelm Bialowons, Peter Garbincius and Tetsuo Shidara · GDE December 8, 2005. GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005. 1. Outline.

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Report from ILC GlobalGroup 5: Cost and Engineering (Updates since Snowmass)

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Report from ilc globalgroup 5 cost and engineering updates since snowmass

Report from ILC GlobalGroup 5: Cost and Engineering(Updates since Snowmass)

Wilhelm Bialowons, Peter Garbincius and Tetsuo Shidara · GDE

December 8, 2005

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 2005

Outline

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

  • Introduction

  • Summary of GG5 Cost & Engineering

    Establishing ILC standards

    Cost & schedule methodology

    Industrial issues

  • Update since Snowmass

    First ideas of cost and schedule methodology

    Suggestion for project and engineering tools

  • Summary

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 20051

Introduction

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

  • Snowmass GlobalGroup 5 recommendations are very ambitious

  • The GDE Cost Engineers are trying to find a practical and pragmatic way, which will be accepted by the three regions, to speed up the process to obtain the cost estimate within the next year

  • We are presenting a first idea which will be further developed up to beginning of next year

  • Has to be confirmed by the GDE Design and Cost Board and the Executive Committee

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 20052

Summary of GG5*

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

  • Establishing ILC internal Standards is important

  • Near-term actions

    • Choose an EDMS system

    • Choose cost and schedule software

    • Establish an engineering standards group

    • Choose common engineering tools (e.g. CAD system)

    • Define the cost & schedule methodology for ILC

    • Develop parametric models to guide the design

  • Study other large international projects and LEARN !

    * Presented by Robert Kephart on August 19, 2005 at Snowmass

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 20053

EDMS Systems

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

Director’s corner 8 September 2005

There are many such EDMS systems out there, including ones developed in some of our high energy laboratories (CERN, DESY and Fermilab) and others that have been developed commercially and are broadly used in large engineering operations. Selecting which system of collaboration and engineering tools are right for the ILC is a complex decision. In order to help us select a system for the GDE, I have appointed a committee of experts, who have much relevant experience, including familiarity with the EDMS systems developed in our high energy physics laboratories. The committee that will be charged to make a recommendation to me consists of Tom Markiewicz (SLAC), John Ferguson (CERN), Lars Hagge (DESY), Rich Stanek (Fermilab), Nobu Toge (KEK) and Harry Weerts (Argonne). Tom Markiewicz will serve as chair. This committee will create a special web page for this task on our ILC website, so you will be able to follow and give inputs as their work unfolds.

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 20054

Summary of GG5

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

Cost & schedule methodology

  • Need to agree on a standard method for the “Basis of estimate” for the ILC project.

    • Use this method to identify the “core cost” of the project

    • Core cost = best guess of the cost of all materials, labor, and resources the Project will need to be built on an agreed upon schedule (50/50 that cost will be this number)

    • An all inclusive estimate. “Public” with nothing hidden or assumed

    • Industrial costs included, but encrypted in a way that the numbers will not be useful for “rigging” subsequent bids

    • No “hidden” contingency or risk management funds

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 20055

Summary of GG5

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

Cost & schedule methodology

  • Regions can then “interpret” these numbers in the way the regional funding agencies are used to seeing

    • Example: increase task prices or add contingency to manage risk

    • Adjust labor costs as appropriate for the region, etc.

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 20056

Summary of GG5

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

Cost & schedule methodology

  • Agreeing on how to estimate the “core” costs is not enough

    • To estimate the cost & schedule, we must also have a “model” for how the project will proceed

    • Example: Regional funding agencies might force production of klystrons in 3 regions (3 orders of 200 klystrons will cost more than 1 order of 600)

    • Example: A cryogenic plant built in Japan may be much more than one built by the same company that just built them for the LHC

    • Make a model of how the project might proceed

    • Get regional funding agencies to endorse this model early in the game (adjust as required)

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Report from ilc globalgroup 5 cost and engineering updates since snowmass

Create Technical Requirements Document

Establish rules for C/S & define assumptions

Set up tools and

format for data input

Develop Technical Conceptual Design

Establish C/S Coordinator for each Work Package

Create the WBS

Estimate Cost & Schedule and create the BOE

Develop the RLS and Mgm’t Docs

Review

No

Yes

Fun Starts

General Methodology

C/S = Cost & Schedule

WBS = Work Breakdown Structure

BOE = Basis of Estimate

RLS = Resource Loaded Schedule

Interpret this Core

Cost in each Region


Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 20057

Updates since Snowmass

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

First ideas of cost and schedule methodology

  • ‘Reliable’ cost estimate for the Reference Design Report (RDR) by the end of 2006

  • One common estimate of the ‘value’ and labor with (not too) different cost for the four sample sites

  • Definition of the ‘value’ (adopting the ITER model)

    • Cost estimate on the basis of a (virtual) world wide call for tender as competition (world market price if exist)

    • Best price for best quality

    • Two vendors for same package for risk minimization

    • Parametric cost estimate for scaling (i.e. cost improvement)

    • Different parametric cost estimate for design to cost for ‘small’ changes (for large changes redo of the project)

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 20058

Updates since Snowmass

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

First ideas of cost and schedule methodology

  • ‘Definition of the ‘value’ (continued)

    • No tax is included

    • No escalation (fixed date i.e. January 2, 2006)

    • No contingency but with risk analysis

    • One currency (fixed exchange rates)

    • External labor is included in the value

    • Internal (institute) labor will be estimated in man years

    • Site dependent cost due to real reasons is taken into account (i.e. different geology and landscape, availability of electrical power and cooling water, different cycling rate of electrical power etc.)

    • Site depending cost due to formal reasons are not taken into account (International treaty above national laws)

    • No intellectual property rights

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 20059

Updates since Snowmass

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

First ideas of cost and schedule methodology

  • The cost estimate below level one will not be public

  • One common design (including the footprint)

    • Unavoidable differences due to physical reasons

    • Common set of rules, codes and laws which fits to the regional sets if the cost impact is negligible

    • Use of ILC standards if necessary or

    • Adoption after site decision with additional cost

    • Additional regional options are allowed (i.e. use of existing machines or substantial cost savings)

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 200510

Updates since Snowmass

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

Standard project and engineering tools

  • Standard project tools

    • We are suggesting to start with SLAC WBS tool, MS Excel for (parametric) cost estimate and MS Project for schedule

    • For crosscheck structure, sheets and schedule could be published without cost numbers

    • Adiabatic switch over to professional tools (Cobra from Welcom together with Primavera are promising (Object and data base orientated) but have to be further investigated)

  • Standard engineering tools

    • One high-end 3D-CAD for the design including the civil engineering and common models excepting the foot print

    • Start with different tools (DESY makes a very first layout for an ILC twin tunnel design with IDEAS)

    • Adiabatic switch over to common tools and models

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 200511

Parametric Cost Estimate

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 200512

Parametric Cost Estimate

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 200513

WorkBreakdownStructure WBS

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 200514

High-end 3D-CAD Modeling

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 200515

High-end 3D-CAD Modeling

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

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Gde global design effort meeting infn lnf frascati december 7 to 9 200516

Summary

GDE Global Design Effort Meeting · INFN LNF Frascati · December 7 to 9, 2005

  • First ideas of cost and schedule methodology

  • WBS will developed on the basis of the TDR and US cold option study

  • Parametric models will be developed

  • Strawman baseline will be used for first round

  • Next steps

    • More detailed design, requirements, parts list etc.

    • Definition of work packages

    • Industrial studies for cost drivers

  • Suggestion are welcome and essential

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