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Value-Focused Thinking . Dr. Greg Parnell Virginia Commonwealth University. Overview. Structure of Decisions Value-Focused Thinking Definition Benefits Obstacles Requirements Summary. Structure of Decisions. Values What do we want?. Information What do we know?. Alternatives

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Value-Focused Thinking

Dr. Greg Parnell

Virginia Commonwealth University


Overview

  • Structure of Decisions

  • Value-Focused Thinking

    • Definition

    • Benefits

    • Obstacles

    • Requirements

  • Summary


Structure of Decisions

Values

What do we want?

Information

What do we know?

Alternatives

What can we do?

Key Idea: Use our strategic values to create decision opportunities


Alternative Focused Thinking

Initial

Alternatives

Evaluate


Alternative-Focused Thinking

Value-Focused Thinking

Values

Initial

Alternatives

New & Initial

Alternatives

Evaluate

Change Thinking

If you want better decisions,

find better alternatives!

Evaluate

(Values)


creating

alternatives

identifying

decision

opportunities

uncovering

hidden

objectives

guiding

strategic

thinking

evaluating

alternatives

Thinking

About

Values

improving

communication

facilitating

involvement

guiding

information

collection

Benefits of Value Focused Thinking

inter-

connecting

decisions

Keeney, Ralph L., Value Focused Thinking: A Path To Creative Decisionmaking,

Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, pp. 3-28.


VFT: Guiding Strategic Thinking

Strategic

Objective

Objective 1

Objective 2

Objective 3

  • Strategic objectives should guide our decision-making

  • Strategic objectives are stable over time

  • Means to obtain these objectives vary over time


SPACECAST 2020 Value ModelMissions from JCS PUB 3-14


Greg Parnell's Professional Values

Be an internationally recognized decision analyst & Professor of Mathematical Sciences (Operations Research)

Publish important research & be in demand as consultant

Be an excellent teacher & mentor

Perform significant professional service


Strategic

Objective

Objective 1

Objective 2

Objective 3

VFT: Facilitates Involvement in Multiple-Stakeholder Decisions

  • Focuses stakeholder interaction on values

    • Discussions more productive

    • Key issues become explicit

    • Postpones discussion of alternatives


VFT: Uncovering Hidden Objectives

Strategic

Objective

Objective 2

Objective 3

Objective 1

Objective 4

  • Some objectives require considerable thought to uncover

  • Some stakeholders have incentives not to identify objectives


VFT: Improving Communications

  • Facilitates communications and understanding between all stakeholders

  • Avoids technical language of many specialties


VFT: Decision Opportunities

  • Assess how we will attain future strategic objectives

    • Objectives not being attained

    • Objectives that are or will be degrading

  • Focus our creativity to identify opportunities to create value


Develop research

agenda & thesis

research topics

Greg Parnell's Professional Values

Be a internationally recognized decision analyst

& Professor of Mathematical Sciences

(Operations Research)

Be an excellent teacher

Publish important research

Perform significant

& mentor

& be in demand as consultant

professional service

Develop world class

Maintain & build friendships

University

Work on challenging

decision & risk analysis

courses

Community

problems

Nationally/Internationally

Perform university Service

Math Sciences Dept

Develop outstanding

Build strong research

H & S School

operations research courses

program

VCU

Support INFORMS/MORS

Teach undergraduate

courses that attract

Professional Objectives

operations research students

Local/National

Enhance Math Sciences (OR)

Attract excellent

Provide sound academic

undergraduate &

MS thesis students

& professional advice

graduate programs

Be a member

Increase program

of PhD committees

awareness - Locally

Nationally/Internationally

Obtain funding for

Build network to help

summer & students

graduates get jobs

Get research & consulting

work published


Strategic

Objective

20%

30%

50%

Objective 1

Objective 2

Objective 3

30%

40%

30%

Subobjective A

Subobjective B

Subobjective C

Measure of Merit A

Measure of Merit B

Measure of Merit C

VFT: Evaluating Alternatives

  • Develop value model to evaluate alternatives

    • Identify subobjectives required to achieve objectives

    • Identify measures of merit that quantify the value of achieving subobjectives

    • Assign weight to the subobjectives and objectives


SPACECAST 2020 Value ModelWeighted Score = Improvement Score X Force Quality Weight X Task Weight X Mission Weight

OBJECTIVE

0.19

0.37

0.22

0.22

MISSION

TASK

0.25

0.20

0.22

0.07

0.18

0.08

FORCE

QUALITY

0.35

0.35

0.20

0.10

MEASURE

OF MERIT

CURRENT

(0.0)

CAPABILITY

IMPROVEMENT:

MINOR

(0.1)

SIGNIFICANT

(0.5)

ORDER OF

MAGNITUDE

(0.9)


Strategic

Objective

20%

30%

50%

Objective 1

Objective 2

Objective 3

30%

40%

30%

Subobjective A

Subobjective B

Subobjective C

Measure of Merit A

Measure of Merit B

Measure of Merit C

VFT: Guiding Information Collection

  • Value model indicates the important information

  • Collect information to

    • Create better alternatives

    • Credibly evaluate alternatives


VFT: Creating Alternatives

Strategic

Objective

20%

30%

50%

Objective 1

Objective 2

Objective 3

Alternative A

Alternative B

Alternative B

Alternative C

  • Advocates will propose several alternatives

  • Focus creativity to generate alternatives that create value


VFT: Interconnecting Decisions

Strategic

Objective

20%

30%

50%

Objective 1

Objective 2

Objective 3

30%

40%

30%

Task A

Task B

Task C

Measure of Merit A

Measure of Merit B

Measure of Merit C

  • Value model assessments of alternatives

    • Objective

    • Traceable

    • Robust


SPACECAST 2020Operational Analysis Summary

(Sensitivity to Weights)

5

TAV

High

Energy

Laser

(HEL)

4

3

Global

Surveillance, Recon,

& Targeting

System

(GSRT)

High Power

Microwave

Orbital

Transfer

Vehicle

(OTV)

Kinetic

Energy

Weapons

(KEW)

2

Particle

Beam

Weather

Forecasting

System

Super

GPS

Space

Traffic

Control

(SPATRACS)

Orbital

Maneuvering

Vehicle

Space

Modular

Systems

Asteroid

Detection

Weather

Control

1

Solar

Mirror

Space

Solar

Monitoring

Ionospheric

Forecasting

TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGE


Obstacles to Value-Focused Thinking

  • Alternative Focused Thinking

  • “Drunk looking for car keys under the lamp post”

  • Worrying too much about the “weights”

  • Lack of an environment that encourages creativity


Requirements for Value-Focused Thinking

  • Study leadership support

  • Support from study team

  • Experienced analysis team


Summary

Value Model Has a Central Role

Strategic

Objective

Objective 1

Objective 2

Objective 3

Subobjective A

Subobjective B

Subobjective C

Measure of Merit C

Measure of Merit A

Measure of Merit B

Value-Focused Thinking helps us use

our strategic objectives to create value


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