Tsunami risk in South Asia
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Tsunami risk in South Asia. Dale Dominey-Howes Macquarie University Sydney, Australia. Structure of the presentation. Short context Outline relative global risk Explore risk in the Asia-Pacific region – frequency-magnitude Recommendations for the industry.

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Tsunami risk in south asia

Tsunami risk in South Asia

Dale Dominey-Howes

Macquarie University

Sydney, Australia


Tsunami risk in south asia

Structure of the presentation

Short context

Outline relative global risk

Explore risk in the Asia-Pacific region – frequency-magnitude

Recommendations for the industry

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk


Tsunami risk in south asia

Introduction and context

We now know what tsunami are

They are generated in four separate ways

Tsunami magnitude is a measure of wave height at shore

Tsunami intensity is a measure of wave effect

Tsunami have dramatic effects on human and environmental systems

Remainder of this talk will outline relative global risk before

summarising risk in the Asia-Pacific region

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk


Tsunami risk in south asia

Causes

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk


Tsunami risk in south asia

Tsunami Magnitude

Tsunami intensity?

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk


Tsunami risk in south asia

Magnitude data across the globe

Analysis for specific “Cresta zones”

www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html


Tsunami risk in south asia

Economic and insurance costs

UN estimate of rebuild costs – US$10 – 12.5 bn

As of April 2005, insured losses estimated at US$2.5 – 4 bn

Major insurers / reinsurers reporting relatively low losses

Insurance losses remarkably light – low wealth areas with little

(catastrophe) insurance

Little domestic property and business insurance

Affected multiple classes:

Life and health

Buildings, contents and infrastructure

Business interruption loss

Travel

Motor

Marine etc

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk


Tsunami risk in south asia

Relative Global Risk – historic distribution

http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html


Tsunami risk in south asia

Relative Global Risk

Large tsunami:

= 6:100 years!

Two on-line catalogues:

Russian catalogue from 1628 BC – 2,200 events

American catalogue from 49 BC – over 2,000 events


Tsunami risk in south asia

K-K

A-A

JAP

CAM

HAW

PHI

NGS

IND

NZT

SAM

Tsunami risk in the Asia-Pacific region

(After Gusiakov, 2005)


Tsunami risk in south asia

Efficiency of tsunami generation

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk


Tsunami risk in south asia

Tsunami Risk in South Asia?

Tsunamigenic zones?

Past tsunami events?

Frequency – magnitude?

Future risk?

IO Warning System and

public awareness and

mitigation techniques

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake


Tsunami risk in south asia

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Fundamental research on documentary and geological record of tsunami


Tsunami risk in south asia

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Use of improved records of tsunami to examine frequency-recurrence and

magnitude estimates for at risk areas


Tsunami risk in south asia

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Development and application of tsunami vulnerability assessment frameworks

and the development of appropriate building code standards and best practice

design


Tsunami risk in south asia

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Reassessment of insurance asset exposure to tsunami loss and careful pricing

of premiums to accurately take account of potential tsunami losses


Tsunami risk in south asia

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Increased collaboration between relevant stakeholders to improve community

education and to promote risk reduction measures


Tsunami risk in south asia

Acknowledgements

Organisers for invitation to make this presentation

Thanks to Aon Re Australia Ltd for their support in to

research in to tsunami

Any questions?

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk


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