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Tsunami risk in South Asia. Dale Dominey-Howes Macquarie University Sydney, Australia. Structure of the presentation. Short context Outline relative global risk Explore risk in the Asia-Pacific region – frequency-magnitude Recommendations for the industry.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Tsunami risk in South Asia

Dale Dominey-Howes

Macquarie University

Sydney, Australia

slide2

Structure of the presentation

Short context

Outline relative global risk

Explore risk in the Asia-Pacific region – frequency-magnitude

Recommendations for the industry

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk

slide3

Introduction and context

We now know what tsunami are

They are generated in four separate ways

Tsunami magnitude is a measure of wave height at shore

Tsunami intensity is a measure of wave effect

Tsunami have dramatic effects on human and environmental systems

Remainder of this talk will outline relative global risk before

summarising risk in the Asia-Pacific region

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk

slide4

Causes

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk

slide5

Tsunami Magnitude

Tsunami intensity?

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk

slide6

Magnitude data across the globe

Analysis for specific “Cresta zones”

www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html

slide7

Economic and insurance costs

UN estimate of rebuild costs – US$10 – 12.5 bn

As of April 2005, insured losses estimated at US$2.5 – 4 bn

Major insurers / reinsurers reporting relatively low losses

Insurance losses remarkably light – low wealth areas with little

(catastrophe) insurance

Little domestic property and business insurance

Affected multiple classes:

Life and health

Buildings, contents and infrastructure

Business interruption loss

Travel

Motor

Marine etc

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk

slide8

Relative Global Risk – historic distribution

http://www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html

slide9

Relative Global Risk

Large tsunami:

= 6:100 years!

Two on-line catalogues:

Russian catalogue from 1628 BC – 2,200 events

American catalogue from 49 BC – over 2,000 events

slide10

K-K

A-A

JAP

CAM

HAW

PHI

NGS

IND

NZT

SAM

Tsunami risk in the Asia-Pacific region

(After Gusiakov, 2005)

slide11

Efficiency of tsunami generation

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk

slide12

Tsunami Risk in South Asia?

Tsunamigenic zones?

Past tsunami events?

Frequency – magnitude?

Future risk?

IO Warning System and

public awareness and

mitigation techniques

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake

slide13

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Fundamental research on documentary and geological record of tsunami

slide14

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Use of improved records of tsunami to examine frequency-recurrence and

magnitude estimates for at risk areas

slide15

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Development and application of tsunami vulnerability assessment frameworks

and the development of appropriate building code standards and best practice

design

slide16

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Reassessment of insurance asset exposure to tsunami loss and careful pricing

of premiums to accurately take account of potential tsunami losses

slide17

Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance industry

Increased collaboration between relevant stakeholders to improve community

education and to promote risk reduction measures

slide18

Acknowledgements

Organisers for invitation to make this presentation

Thanks to Aon Re Australia Ltd for their support in to

research in to tsunami

Any questions?

Global Conference on Insurance and Reinsurance

for Natural Catastrophe Risk

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