The Future of the Internet

1. The Future of the Internet Niall Richard Murphy Ireland Online System Operations Networks & Telecomm Research Group, TCD

2. Overview • “The problem with educated guesses” • Some basic theory (definitions) • Identify obvious trends (mostly technical) • Examine the past, and project the future trends in other areas...

3. What kind of areas? • Technical • (mercifully brief) • Where is the growth coming from?

4. What kind of areas? • Humanities • Economics • Who can and can’t afford the Internet • Politics • Social Intercourse • Miscellaneous

5. Speculation Spectacles • “Far-out” Stuff • What will the Net be • How will we communicate with it? • What will we be

6. Futurology 101 • The Dangers of Prophecy • extending existing categories and not inventing new ones (Parent office, Physics and Victoriana) • not seeing correctly the secondary implications of a new factor (e.g.: horseless carraige) (R.A. Heinlein “Pandora’s Box”) • “Against stupidity, the gods themselves contend in vain”(Greek saying)

7. Futurology 101 • The rate of change of the rate of change“The information technology boom is just beginning. In the next 10 years we’ll see more change than we’ve seen in the last 25.” (Bill Gates, Indiana Lecture Series #4) • Conclusion: Art, not science

8. A word of explanation • What is this Internet thing, anyway… • Simplest definition:A network of networks(which doesn’t really tell you anything useful) • The noun for all of the TCP/IP capable “hosts” in the world(currently mostly computers, modems, routers..) • Really not much more than a common standard followed (varyingly) by everyone connected

9. Another word of explanation • Key points to remember • Every internet host has an “IP address” • Unique throughout the world • Are of the form “dotted quad”(for example 137.43.4.16) • Can usefully be thought of as being in two parts • Network part (137.43 meaning UCD) • Host part (4.16 meaning the host “orca”)

10. Son of word of explanation • Most, but not all hosts have “names” • Distinct technical meaning - but really just so that humans can remember hosts more easily • The “name” for 137.43.4.16 is “orca.ucd.ie” • The hostname of orca.ucd.ie is “orca” • The domain name of orca.ucd.ie is “ucd.ie” • The second level domain name of orca.ucd.ie is “ucd” • The top level domain name of orca.ucd.ie is “ie”(which is the top level domain for all hostsin Ireland)

11. Bride of word of explanation • These names are maintained in “name server” databases (called the DNS) • Run by essentially every medium to large size organisation that is internet connected • ccTLDs (country code top level domains such as ie and fr) run the master name database for a country • gTLDs (generic top level domains such as .com and .org) run by an organisation in the states • Every significant organisation runs a nameserver and has many hostnames stored there

12. DNS structure

13. Second cousin twice removed of word of explanation • Not only do these organisations have name servers, they might have • web servers (eg: www.ucd.ie) • IP address servers (eg: dhcp.irlgov.ie) • news servers (eg: news.iol.ie) • Most significant applications (things you might want to do) that exist have an entry in DNS • Hence the DNS nicely supports Internet surveys

14. Obvious Trends • “The Internet is getting bigger and it’s happening fast.” • “Show me the numbers”

15. Obvious Trend #1.1: Hosts

16. Obvious Trend #1.2: Hosts

17. Obvious Trend #1.3: Domains (Ireland)

18. Obvious Trend #1.4: Domains (worldwide)

19. Obvious Trend #1.5: People online ?

20. Summary after obvious trends • Linear or flattening out of growth predicted by most experts • My prediction: exponential growth will continue for a while yet due to “unforseen events” • Real limits to growth are still unapproached

21. Technical - IP addresses • Addressing - we are running out of addresses! • The current version of TCP/IP only hasroom for “another few years” • Thankfully there is another version in development(IPv4 is the current version, IPv6 is the new one) • Most people will never even need to know, since the DNS will take care of whether it’s an IPv4 or IPv6 address • If v4 = 137.43.4.16, v6 = FF80:0:0:0:0:0:1:4:89:2b.. • Prediction: this won’t be a (real) problem

22. Technical - Domain names • Naming • ccTLDs, gTLDs enjoyed relative harmony up until relatively recently • ccTLDs comparitively stable • gTLDs currently “enjoying” controversy • New domain names have been proposed since .COM is running out of “usable” names • By “usable” we mean domains people are likely to want to use (or even unlikely) • There are interests who want this not to happen • Prediction: new ones will eventually materialise

23. Technical - User Interfaces • Current user experience • Using a computer and modem(User-opaque as opposed to user-transparent) • Prone to errors, configuration problems... • Predictions of future user experience • Need to up the ease-of-use • Metropolitan area wireless radio networks • “Mobile ubiquitous computing” - watches, pacemakers, car engines, ambulances..

24. Where is the growth coming from? • Application-driven growth • Mostly web service (accounts for ~ 79% of all major ISP traffic) • Also email, java apps, not so much discussion groups (signal to noise ratio decreasing) • Commerce-driven growth • Commercial interests do the serious investment • Corporate users make the money for ISPs (not home users)

25. Questions to guide us • Internet: The Great Leveller(or is it?) • Qui bono? • “Show me the money” • What is the effect upon people and their interactions with other people? • “Future Shock”(Alvin Toffler)

26. Who can afford the Internet? • Historical picture of Internaut • White, male, middle-class, American…(your worst nightmare) • Has changed dramatically • Surveys • Will change dramatically • Prediction: pretty much every 1st/2nd world demographic will be thoroughly represented..

27. Who can afford the net? • Minimum equipment for net access(~ = approximately) • Computer (~100 IRP for old one) • Modem (~20 IRP for old one) • Phone line (~100 IRP for installation ?) • Electricity (~ 50 IRP / 2 months) • … instantly puts it beyond reach of 2/3rds of the worlds population

28. Who can afford the net? • It’s much worse than that • The cost of getting from ISP to ISP is astronomical in comparison(many hundreds of thousands of IRP per month in order to be considered a “contender”) • The cost of cross-pond links or leased lines are punitive • Only the very wealthy or the well managed business can afford this business

29. Who can afford the net? • Two thirds of the worlds people have never even made a telephone call.(Bill Gates) • Of course Bill could pay for all of us on the planet to make about 100 calls each…(Bill Gates wealth clock)

30. Political • Digital Voting • The E-commerce pact • The various Communication Decency Acts (CDAs) • “The Internet is free speech at a level not imagined by the founding fathers. It gives everyone an unstifled voice.”

31. Political • War crimes on the MBONE • Prediction: Justice via the net • “No-one ever got poor underestimating the taste of the American public”

32. Political • Activism • Protests • Italians against their telco • Censorship • Saudi Arabia vetting ISPs • Racism • Gay web site attacks • Revisionism • “The holocaust did not exist”

33. Political • MGA (Mysterious Government Agencies) • NSA, CIA, FBI… but especially the NSA • Project ECHELON • Cryptography • Privacy

34. Social Intercourse • Online Addiction • Depression • Dropouts

35. Social Intercourse • Advertising … (combination of ec. & soc.) • Mega Brands • Intel

36. Social Intercourse • Sex, Gambling • Cybersex • Pornographic industry • Gambling online

37. Social Intercourse • Behaviour changes • Displacement activities • Relationships (marriages) over the net?

38. Miscellaneous • Language • Homes • Year 2000 class problems (2038)

39. Real Crystal Gazing • “The sum total of human knowledge at our fingertips” • Interfaces • The nature of humanity changing?

40. Summary of Trend Analysis • When in Rome… • In general people seem to do pretty much the same things online as they do offline • Perhaps cybersex and other online dodginess is a healthy indication • The effect of having a lot of useful data continually accessible to (theoretically) every individual is unknown but probably as great • Prediction: we accept it now; soon we’ll rely on it

41. Two momentums • Two “C”’s • Convenience • Soon there will be no reason not to conduct many activities over the Internet • It will be quicker, cheaper, more secure (security maybe not soon, but definitely needed) • William has to get Windows to stop crashing first

42. Two momentums • Commerce • Companies want to be able to take your money faster • Fortunately they seem to deliver something in return for that • Even though online shopping is legally a gray area, consumers have more picketing power

43. Paul Simon • Brief Bio • “And I believe these are the days of lasersin the jungle, lasers in the jungle somewhere,stacatto signals of constant information,a loose affililiation of millionaires and billionaires and baby”(The Boy in the Bubble, Graceland, 1986)

44. William H. Gates III (of Borg)

45. Sources • http://www.nua.ie • http://www.ucd.ie/hostmaster/ • http://www.nanog.org • http://www.ripe.net • http://www.nw.com • The Worlds of Robert Heinlein (NEL 1972) - Robert Heinlein • http://www.jerrypournelle.com • http://www.microsoft.com/BillGates/ • http://www.macontel.com/data/govt/cda329.htm • http://www.isoc.org/postel/ • http://www.usi.edu/LIBARTS/SOCIO/finalpro/ • http://www.cusd.chico.k12.ca.us/~tgray/3Dhorses.html • http://www.cato.org/events/speakers/volokh.html • http://www.mids.orgs/topics/ • The Soul of the Internet - Neil Randall • Count Zero - William Gibson

46. Talk available from.. • http://www.iol.ie/~niallrm/