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Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France. S. Planton*, M. Gillet**, M. Déqué*, and J. Manach* *Météo-France, CNRM ** «  Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement Climatique » (France).  The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe.

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Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France

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Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France

S. Planton*, M. Gillet**, M. Déqué*, and J. Manach*

*Météo-France, CNRM

** « Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement Climatique » (France)

 The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe

 First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence


Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France

S. Planton*, M. Gillet**, M. Déqué*, and J. Manach*

*Météo-France, CNRM

** « Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement Climatique » (France)

 The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe

 First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence


Mean June-July-August temperatures in France (°C)


1983

1976

2003

1994

The last heat waves850Hpa June-July-August Anomalies


Temperature in Chartres

o

40

ECMWF

o

35

o

30

9 days with Tx>35C Tn>20C

Obs.

2 day for.

5 day for.

o

25

o

20

o

15

o

10

August 7

August 14


June-July-August temperature in France (°C)


The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe

 For the period running from June 1st to August 31st, the year 2003 is the warmest ever recorded in France. The warming is singular by its amplitude and its extension over Western Europe.

 The hottest period appeared to be predictable a few days in advance.

 Some regional climate change scénarios suggest that summers as warm or warmer than 2003 summer might occur every two years on average after 2050 in France (Déqué 2004) or in Switzerland (Schär et al, 2004).


Adaptation to heat waves occurrence in France

S. Planton*, M. Gillet**, M. Déqué*, and J. Manach*

*Météo-France, CNRM

** « Observatoire National sur les Effets du Réchauffement Climatique » (France)

 The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe

 First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence


Post-heat wave reports and actions

Reports:

29 August 2003: Institut de Veille Sanitaire.

25 September 2003: INSERM.

November 2003: Ville de Paris.

3 February 2004: Sénat.

3 March 2004: Assemblée Nationale.


August 2003 temperature and mortality Ile-de-France(INSERM, 2004)


August 2003 temperature and mortality Rhône-Alpes(INSERM, 2004)


Post-heat wave reports and actions

Reports:

29 August 2003: Institut de Veille Sanitaire.

25 September 2003: INSERM.

November 2003: Ville de Paris.

3 February 2004: Sénat.

3 March 2004: Assemblée Nationale.

Action plans:

5 May 2004: Heat wave plan for old people’s houses.

6 May 2004: Heat wave plan for medical urgency

services and hospitals of Paris and its surroundings.

1 June-30 September 2004: French alert system

for heat waves and health.

2 June 2004: Heat wave plan for Paris.

As part of the National heat wave plan


The national heat wave plan

Level 1:

Seasonal survey from 1 June to 30 September to check up the different action plans and to inform the public for prevention.

Level 2:

To mobilize public services from local to national scales when an overtaking of biometeorological thresholds is forecasted in the next 3 days.

Level 3:

To apply medical and social measures when an heatwave is occurring.

Level 4:

To apply exceptional measures when an heatwave is extending and lasting .


The french alert system for heat waves and health

Established by the « Institut de Veille Sanitaire » and Météo-France to alert authorities with 3-day anticipation.

Method:

Definition of a biometeorological indicator: a combination of daily minimum and maximum temperatures averaged over 3 days.

Construction of a map of threshold values of this indicator for a given overmortality percentage.

Application:

Activation of Level 2 of the national heatwave plan when forecasted indicators (1, 2 or 3 days in advance) overtake the threshold values.

The vigilance map elaborated with 1-day temperature forecasts for public information.


First adaptation measures to heat wave occurrence

 A combination of decision levels from local to national with a national coordination.

 A combination of anticipation levels

Very short term: medical and social measures …

Short term: 3-day anticipation of heat waves …

Long term: prevention by public information …

 An adaptation to climate change as heat waves will become more frequent and as decision makers are generally aware of this.


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