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Doing Business After a Major Bay Area Earthquake . JEANNE PERKINS ABAG Earthquake Program Manager. What Are Natural HAZARDS? . Earthquake-Related Hazards . Ground Shaking Fault Rupture Liquefaction Landslides Tsunamis. Weather-Related Hazards . Flooding Landslides Wildfires Drought.

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Doing business after a major bay area earthquake

Doing Business After a Major Bay Area Earthquake

JEANNE PERKINS

ABAG Earthquake Program Manager



Earthquake related hazards
Earthquake-Related Hazards

  • Ground Shaking

  • Fault Rupture

  • Liquefaction

  • Landslides

  • Tsunamis


Weather related hazards
Weather-Related Hazards

  • Flooding

  • Landslides

  • Wildfires

  • Drought


What are the hazards in my area

What Are the HAZARDS in MY Area?



2 past earthquakes
2 PAST EARTHQUAKES

  • 142 road closures in Loma Prieta

  • 140 road closures in Northridge

    18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

  • 17 Bigger than these earthquakes

  • 0 Bigger than New Orleans


What happens m 7 9 on san andreas fault
What Happens - M 7.9 on San Andreas Fault --

  • 1,330 total closures

  • Problems along I-280 and Hwy. 101 in San Mateo Co.

  • San Francisco a mess

  • San Mateo and Marin county coasts isolated

  • Problems near Bay at OAK, SFO and SJC


What happens m 6 9 on entire hayward fault
What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault --

  • 1,650 total closures

  • Most toll bridges not usable

  • Some problems in the Hwy. 101 and 37 corridors in Marin, SF and San Mateo counties

  • Entire East Bay isolated



What does this mean
What Does This Mean?

  • There were only 142 road closures in Loma Prieta.

  • There were only 140 road closures in Northridge.

  • Our model for predicting the potential impacts of these closures should be Kobe, not either of these California earthquakes.



Liquefaction results
Liquefaction- Results

Selected Damage

to Foundations

Roads & Sidewalks

Sand boils

Pipeline Breaks


What happened in the very high liquefaction areas loma prieta quake
What Happened in the “Very High” Liquefaction Areas - Loma Prieta Quake

  • Water - 4-5 times more breaks

  • Natural Gas - 3 - 11 times more breaks

  • Roads - 1.3 times more surface, but 25 times more costly


Liquefaction hazard loma prieta versus entire hayward
Liquefaction Hazard - Loma Prieta QuakeLoma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward


Airport system impacts
Airport System Impacts Loma Prieta Quake


What happens m 7 9 on entire bay area san andreas fault
What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault Loma Prieta Quake

  • SFO probably CLOSED

  • OAK probably CLOSED

  • SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.


What happens m 6 9 on entire hayward fault1
What Happens - M 6.9 on Loma Prieta QuakeEntire Hayward Fault

  • SFO probably disruption

  • OAK probably CLOSED

  • SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.


Housing impacts

Housing Loma Prieta QuakeImpacts


2 past earthquakes1
2 Loma Prieta QuakePAST EARTHQUAKES

  • 16,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Loma Prieta Earthquake

  • 48,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Northridge Earthquake

    18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

  • 13 Bigger than Loma Prieta

  • 8 Bigger than Northridge

  • 0 Bigger than New Orleans


What happens m 7 9 on entire bay area san andreas fault1
What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault Loma Prieta Quake

  • 159,900 uninhabitable housing units

  • (300,000 – Katrina)

  • 359,000 people displaced

  • 105,700 peak shelter population


What happens m 6 9 on entire hayward fault2
What Happens - M 6.9 on Loma Prieta QuakeEntire Hayward Fault

  • 155,700 uninhabitable housing units

  • 300,000 - Katrina

  • 356,600 people displaced

  • 110,300 peak shelter population


Single family homes
Single Family Homes Loma Prieta Quake

9% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare


Mobile homes
Mobile Homes Loma Prieta Quake

7% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare


Multifamily wood frame
Multifamily Wood-Frame Loma Prieta Quake

66% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare


Unreinforced masonry
Unreinforced Masonry Loma Prieta Quake

8% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare


Other non wood multi family
Other Non-Wood Multi-Family Loma Prieta Quake

10% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare


Multifamily vs single family
Multifamily vs. Single-Family Loma Prieta Quake

84% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare




Who has the nightmare
Who Has the Nightmare? Loma Prieta Quake



Where is abag s local hazard mitigation plan information on the internet
Where is ABAG’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan information on the internet?

http://quake.abag.ca.gov

As well as “special” info at http://quake.abag.ca.gov/business



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