Doing business after a major bay area earthquake
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Doing Business After a Major Bay Area Earthquake . JEANNE PERKINS ABAG Earthquake Program Manager. What Are Natural HAZARDS? . Earthquake-Related Hazards . Ground Shaking Fault Rupture Liquefaction Landslides Tsunamis. Weather-Related Hazards . Flooding Landslides Wildfires Drought.

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Doing Business After a Major Bay Area Earthquake

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Doing Business After a Major Bay Area Earthquake

JEANNE PERKINS

ABAG Earthquake Program Manager


What Are Natural HAZARDS?


Earthquake-Related Hazards

  • Ground Shaking

  • Fault Rupture

  • Liquefaction

  • Landslides

  • Tsunamis


Weather-Related Hazards

  • Flooding

  • Landslides

  • Wildfires

  • Drought


What Are the HAZARDS in MY Area?


Transportation Impacts


2 PAST EARTHQUAKES

  • 142 road closures in Loma Prieta

  • 140 road closures in Northridge

    18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

  • 17 Bigger than these earthquakes

  • 0 Bigger than New Orleans


What Happens - M 7.9 on San Andreas Fault --

  • 1,330 total closures

  • Problems along I-280 and Hwy. 101 in San Mateo Co.

  • San Francisco a mess

  • San Mateo and Marin county coasts isolated

  • Problems near Bay at OAK, SFO and SJC


What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault --

  • 1,650 total closures

  • Most toll bridges not usable

  • Some problems in the Hwy. 101 and 37 corridors in Marin, SF and San Mateo counties

  • Entire East Bay isolated


Recovery Timeline


What Does This Mean?

  • There were only 142 road closures in Loma Prieta.

  • There were only 140 road closures in Northridge.

  • Our model for predicting the potential impacts of these closures should be Kobe, not either of these California earthquakes.


Utility System Impacts


Liquefaction- Results

Selected Damage

to Foundations

Roads & Sidewalks

Sand boils

Pipeline Breaks


What Happened in the “Very High” Liquefaction Areas - Loma Prieta Quake

  • Water - 4-5 times more breaks

  • Natural Gas - 3 - 11 times more breaks

  • Roads - 1.3 times more surface, but 25 times more costly


Liquefaction Hazard - Loma Prieta Versus Entire Hayward


Airport System Impacts


What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault

  • SFO probably CLOSED

  • OAK probably CLOSED

  • SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.


What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault

  • SFO probably disruption

  • OAK probably CLOSED

  • SJC disruption - should be OK due to retrofit completed in 2003.


HousingImpacts


2 PAST EARTHQUAKES

  • 16,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Loma Prieta Earthquake

  • 48,000 Uninhabitable Housing Units Due to the Northridge Earthquake

    18 FUTURE EARTHQUAKES

  • 13 Bigger than Loma Prieta

  • 8 Bigger than Northridge

  • 0 Bigger than New Orleans


What Happens - M 7.9 on Entire Bay Area San Andreas Fault

  • 159,900 uninhabitable housing units

  • (300,000 – Katrina)

  • 359,000 people displaced

  • 105,700 peak shelter population


What Happens - M 6.9 on Entire Hayward Fault

  • 155,700 uninhabitable housing units

  • 300,000 - Katrina

  • 356,600 people displaced

  • 110,300 peak shelter population


Single Family Homes

9% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare


Mobile Homes

7% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare


Multifamily Wood-Frame

66% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare


Unreinforced Masonry

8% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare


Other Non-Wood Multi-Family

10% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare


Multifamily vs. Single-Family

84% of the problem in the Hayward Nightmare


The Nightmare Goes On and On...


The Nightmare Goes On and On...


Who Has the Nightmare?


What is the role of business after a disaster?


Where is ABAG’s Local Hazard Mitigation Plan information on the internet?

http://quake.abag.ca.gov

As well as “special” info at http://quake.abag.ca.gov/business


Save the Date – Thursday, April 20 – (Day 3 of the Mega-Conference)


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