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Objective Verification of CPC Outlooks

Objective Verification of CPC Outlooks. Michael Halpert Climate Prediction Center. Outline. Motivation Data Procedure Results Future Plans. Verification at CPC. Historically, CPC has verified ERF and LRF at first order stations. Forecasts made at 77 (out of 117) stations, 45 correct.

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Objective Verification of CPC Outlooks

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  1. Objective Verification of CPC Outlooks Michael Halpert Climate Prediction Center

  2. Outline • Motivation • Data • Procedure • Results • Future Plans

  3. Verification at CPC Historically, CPC has verified ERF and LRF at first order stations

  4. Forecasts made at 77 (out of 117) stations, 45 correct. Heidke Skill Score = 37.7%

  5. Temperature Station Locations Monitoring Data Sets Temperature • ~5000 stations/day: RFC, HADS, CADB • 0.5 x 0.5 degree resolution • 20°- 60°N, 140° - 60°W, Conus only • Mid – Midnight window • Daily Max + Min/2 • SD Quality Control check

  6. Monitoring Temperature 90 Day Mean/Anomaly

  7. Monitoring Data Sets Precipitation • ~8000 stations/day: RFC, HADS, CADB, SNOTEL, Mexican data • 0.25 x 0.25 deg resolution • 10°- 60°N, 140° - 60°W, Conus/Mexico • 12Z – 12Z window • QC: SD, buddy, Duplicate, Nexrad checks Precipitation Station Locations

  8. Monitoring Precipitation

  9. 2° x 2° Grid 20° - 56°N, 130° - 60°W, 232 valid points

  10. Temperature Analysis

  11. January – March Temperature Difference (Upper – Lower) Procedure Calculate means and tercile limits for all 232 grid boxes based on 1971-2000 base period Tercile limits calculated as 0.43 SD for temperature; 33rd and 67th percentile (based on gamma) for precipitation

  12. Procedure • Characterize seasonal mean temperature and total precipitation as above, near, or below average.

  13. Procedure • Compare verification field to forecast DJF Verification Grid DJF Forecast Grid

  14. Seasonal OutlookDec 2005 – Feb 2006

  15. Heidke = 82, Coverage = 64% Seasonal OutlookDec 2005 – Feb 2006 Heidke = 77, Coverage = 73%

  16. All Non-EC % Cov 37.6 71.0 53.0 April – June 2006 Temperature

  17. All Non-EC % Cov 27.6 48.1 57.3 April – June 2006 Temperature

  18. Temperature Skill ScoresGridded vs. Stations ( non-EC) Gridded Score – 23.7 Station Score – 24.2

  19. April – June 2006 Precipitation All Non-EC % Cov 2.6 5.9 43.6

  20. April – June 2006 Precipitation All Non-EC % Cov 14.9 39.7 37.5

  21. June 2006 TOfficial, Update, Observations 0.5 Lead UPD OBS Off. Up. Change All Stations 18.4 33.3 +14.9 Non-EC: 56.6 65.0 +8.4 % Cov: 32.5 51.3 +18.8

  22. June 2006 TOfficial, Update, Observations 0.5 Lead UPD OBS Off. Up. Change All Stations 18.8 25.4 +6.6 Non-EC: 48.3 43.1 -5.2 % Cov: 38.8 59.1 +20.3

  23. Gridded verification makes tool verification simple

  24. JJA 2006 Temperature

  25. JJA 2006 Temperature Official – 60 Consolidation – 58.2

  26. January – March 1998 Temperature Official – 37.3 Consolidation – 51.5

  27. Temperature Heidke Skill ScoresOfficial vs. Consolidation (non-EC) Official – 23.7 Consolidation – 27.6

  28. Temperature Heidke Skill ScoresOfficial vs. Consolidation (all) Official – 11.4 Consolidation – 18.4

  29. Precipitation Heidke Skill ScoresOfficial vs. Consolidation (non-EC) Official – 5.3 Consolidation – 12.4

  30. Precipitation Heidke Skill ScoresOfficial vs. Consolidation (all) Official – 1.4 Consolidation – 3.1

  31. Future Plans Seasonal/monthly • Conversion of tools to 2x2 grid • Verification of tools • Ranked Probability Skill Score

  32. Future Plans Extended Range • Development of 5 and 7 day data sets • Precipitation Complications • Development of tercile limits • Verification of forecasts • Verification of tools • RPSS

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