Japan energy update 2006
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Japan Energy Update 2006. Kae Takase Governance Design Laboratory Tatsujiro Suzuki The University of Tokyo and Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI). Source: Energy Data and Modelling Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan. Energy Demand in Japan.

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Japan energy update 2006

Japan Energy Update 2006

Kae Takase

Governance Design Laboratory

Tatsujiro Suzuki

The University of Tokyo and

Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI)


Energy demand in japan

Source: Energy Data and Modelling Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Energy Demand in Japan

Japanese energy demand began to decrease, but significant growth is observed

In “Commercial” and “Passenger” sector.


Industrial structure

Source: SNA statistics of Japanese government.

Industrial Structure

Japanese industrial structure is becoming more “service-oriented.”


Energy supply in japan

Source: Energy Data and Modelling Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Energy Supply in Japan

Coal power is taking place of Nuclear and Oil.


Capacity factor of nuclear power plants

Source: Energy Data and Modelling Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Capacity Factor of Nuclear Power Plants

Nuclear power had a trouble in 2003.


Japan s new national energy strategy 2006

Japan’s New National Energy Strategy (2006)

  • Responding to emerging global and regional energy security risks

    • Concern over “politicization” of global oil market

    • Diversified energy security risk

    • Applying “comprehensive energy security” approach

  • Set numerical targets for key policy goals by 2030

  • Acceleration of Nuclear Power Programs, including Nuclear Fuel Recycling and Fast Breeder Reactor(FBR) programs


Diversified multi polarized risks of energy security

Diversified, multi-polarized risks of energy security

Source: New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)

http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf


Japan s new national energy strategy 2

Japan’s New National Energy Strategy (2)

Basic Perspectives of “Comprehensive” Energy Security Strategy

Source: New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)

http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf


Japan s new national energy strategy 3

Japan’s New National Energy Strategy (3)

  • Target of energy conservation

    • At least another 30% improvement of efficiency will be attained by 2030.

  • Target of reducing oil dependence

    • The ratio will be reduced from current 50% to be lower than 40% by 2030.

  • Target of reducing oil dependence in the transport sector

    • The percentage will be reduced from 100% to around 80% by 2030.

    • Development of fuel-cell car elec. Car

  • Target on nuclear power generation.

    • The ratio of nuclear power to all power production will be maintained or increased at the level of 30 to 40% or more up to 2030 or later.

  • Target of overseas natural resources development

    • Oil volume ratio will be increased from current 18% to around 40% by 2030.

  • Development of New energy (renewables)

    • RPS target: 1.35% of electricity in 2010.

      Source; New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)

      http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf


Aggressive targets of new energy strategy

Aggressive Targets of New Energy Strategy

energy efficiency targets

ratio of oil exploration done by

Japanese companies

  • Source; New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)

  • http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf


  • Aggressive targets of new energy strategy1

    Aggressive Targets of New Energy Strategy

    Share of Nuclear Power in Total Power

    Generation

    Oil Dependency of Transportation

    Sector

    • Source; New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)

  • http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf


  • Japan s resource diplomacy

    Japan’s “Resource Diplomacy”

    BBC World News, August 28, 2006

    “In the game of regional politics, Japan feels it has a role to play in helping offset growing Russian and Chinese influence”

    Col Christopher LangtonInternational Institute of Strategic Studies

    source: BBC News http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5291858.stm


    Resource development strategy

    Resource Development Strategy

    • Source; New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)

  • http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf


  • Rps target

    Estimated by Governance Design Laboratory

    RPS target:

    • RPS target

      • 2003: 0.3% of electricity sales.

      • 2010: 1.35%

    • Over-achieved

      • ->banking

    Original target

    achievement

    Revised target


    Asia energy and environmental cooperation strategy

    Asia Energy and Environmental Cooperation Strategy

    • Promotion of Energy Conservation

    • New Energy Cooperation in Asia

    • Dissemination of Clean Coal Technology

    • Building of stockpiling system in Asia

    • Promotion of Nuclear Power Cooperation in Asia


    Energy conservation cooperation in asia

    Energy Conservation Cooperation in Asia

    • Source; New National Energy Strategy (May 2006)

  • http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/data/newnationalenergystrategy2006.pdf


  • Final energy consumption will decline after 2020

    Final Energy Consumption will decline after 2020

    mil. kl of crude oil equivalent

    Peak:2022 (448)

    2.0%/year

    0.2%/year

    Source: METI (2004.2)


    Nuclear power plants in japan

    Nuclear Power Plants in Japan

    Source: Federation of Electric Power Companies,

    http://www.fepc.or.jp/english/nuclear_power/generation/plants.html, April 2005


    Current and future capacity of power plants

    Source: Energy Data and Modelling Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

    Current and Future Capacity of Power Plants

    GW


    Nuclear power in japan in 2030 meti s long term outlook june 2004

    Nuclear Power in Japan in 2030- METI’s Long Term Outlook-June 2004

    2003: 52 units (45.7GWe)

    High Case: +17 units(67.95 GWe)

    Reference: +10 units (57.98 GWe)

    Low Case: + 8 units (55.97 GWe)

    2000 share: 34%

    High Case: 47%

    Reference: 38%

    Low Case: 37%

    Source: METI’s Advisory Committee on Energy, June 2004


    Kyoto target

    Source: EPA (Japan)

    Kyoto Target

    Japanese GHG emission in 2004 is 7% higher than base year, which makes

    13% reduction from 2004 by 2008-2010.


    How to achieve kyoto target

    Source: EPA (Japan)

    How to achieve Kyoto target?

    • 2010 ref. GHG: +6% of base year. (12% reduction)

      • 5% reduction of energy-CO2

      • 4% in forest absorption

    • Env.-tax or domestic ETS considered (policy renewal in 2007)


    Leap model and uncertainty

    LEAP Model and uncertainty

    • New Factors to be introduced

      • Uncertainty: Nuclear, Energy Conservation, and Renewables.

      • Certainty:

        • Demand decrease/not increase.

        • Still about 15-20% of Asia (TPE).

        • Relative cost of Nuclear, Conservation, and Renewables declined.


    Summary

    Summary

    • Energy demand in Japan is not increasing rapidly, but still significant increase in “Commercial” and “Passenger.”

      • Because of unexpected accident and oil price increase, nuclear and oil supply decreased, and coal substituted those decrease.

    • “New National Energy Strategy” emphasizes “comprehensive energy security”

      • National resource development

      • Asia Energy and Environment cooperation

    • New Strategy states Japan as “Nuclear Nation” with nuclear fuel cycle and future FBRs. (30-40% of electricity)

    • On the other hand, RPS claims only 0.3% (2003) to 1.35%(2010) of electricity.

    • Kyoto target is unlikely to be achieved because major policy for energy conservation is “enlightenment.”


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