Introduction to Alis

1. Introduction to Alis Dr Robert Clark ALIS Project Manager

2. Ensuring Fairness

3. Principles of Fair Analysis : • Compare ‘Like’ with ‘Like’ • Appropriate Baseline • Reflect Statistical Uncertainty

4. The Analysis

5. . Linear Least Squares Regression Subject X -ve VA +ve VA 0 2 4 6 8 Residuals Regression Line (…Trend Line, Line of Best Fit) Outcome = gradient x baseline + intercept Correlation Coefficient (~ 0.7)

6. Alf Bob Subject A Chris Subject B Low Ability Average Ability High Ability Baseline Score Measuring Value-Added – An Example National Trend ‘Average’ Student A B -ve C Result +ve D E U The position of the national trend line is of critical importance

7. Physics Maths Psychology Sociology Latin Photography English Lit Some Subjects are More Equal than Others…. A B >1 grade Grade C D E C B A A* Average GCSE Principle of Fair Analysis No1 : Compare ‘Like’ with ‘Like’

8. Subject Choices Predicted Grades Maths, Physics, Chemistry, Economics C, C, C/D, C/D Sociology, Communication Studies, Drama, Media B, B/C, B/C, B/C Some Subjects are More Equal than Others … Performance varies between subjects, thus analysing and predicting each subject individually is essential. e.g. Student with Average GCSE = 6.0

9. Standardisation of Residuals • (Raw) Residuals can be used to examine an individual’s performance • Standardised Residuals are used to compare performance of groups • Standardised Residuals are independent of year or qualification type • For a class, subject, department or whole institution the Average Standardised Residual is the ‘Value-Added Score’ • Standardised Residual = Residual / Standard Deviation (National Sample) • When using Standardised Residuals then for an individual subject where N = number of results in the group (for combinations of subjects consult the relevant project) • 95% Confidence Limit = 2.0 x Standard Error • 99% Confidence Limit = 2.6 x Standard Error • 99.7% Confidence Limit = 3.0 x Standard Error

10. Subjects Covered… • A / AS Levels • Applied A / AS levels (including dual award) • International Baccalaureate • BTec Nationals (Diploma, Certificate, Award) • CACHE DCE • OCR Nationals • ifs Diploma / Certificate in Financial Studies • Limited pool of level 2 (BTec First)

11. How to Administer the Project

12. Submit a registration form (Y11 May onwards….) • We need this before we can process any data • We need this even if you are registering as part of a consortium • Choose Basic / Full (Basic + Attitudinal surveys) and whether you wish to do baseline test • Submit student details – ‘Registration Spreadsheet’ (Y12 Mid Sept onwards….) • This gives us student name details, GCSE scores and the subjects they are studying • We always need this even if the students are sitting a baseline test • Send spreadsheet once students are confirmed on courses (i.e. not first day of term….) • Organise baseline testing – ‘Adaptive Test’ (End Y11 June 15th onwards….) • This can happen before, at the same time as or after sending us the registration spreadsheet (2 above) • Student details appear in ‘Check List’ on web site • Early prediction are available for students with Adaptive Test scores as soon as they appear in the Check List. This function is removed one Alis has generated offical predictions (pdf reports). • Don’t forget to click ‘Testing Complete’ once you have finished testing your students.

13. Prediction Reports Generated • Prediction reports, Intake Profiles, Adaptive Test data (IPR) • Reports created after receipt of Registration Spreadsheet • Guarenteed turnaround 4 weeks • Normal deliverable turnaround 2 weeks • When adaptive test data is ready (‘Testing Complete’ clicked), repots are updated. • Maintain Data • Keep reports up to date by using the Subject Editor on the Alis+ secure website to add and remove students from subject registrations and request updated feedback • Submit Entries Data (Y12 & Y13 March / April) • For institutions offering A / AS options, submit EDI entries files to Alis • Entries data Matched and Check lists issued (Y12 & Y13 May - July) • These need to be completed to ensure complete matching of candidate numbers to names held by Alis to ensure all EDI exam results are successfully processed in August

14. Results Collection (Y12 & Y13 August) • Submit A / AS results to Alis via EDI Results Files • Submit Other quals (IB, BTEc etc) to Alis using results spreadsheet (can opt to submit A / AS data in spreadsheet as well instead of EDI files) • Submit results as soon after results day as possible • Preliminary VA Feedback (Beginning of September) • Preliminary feedback generated by 1st Monday in September. Prompt return of results in August leads to early feedback • Trend data not fixed, values may be subject to change • Definitive VA Feedback (End of Spetember • Trend data locked and feedback generated. Letter & CD sent to schools / colleges. • Maintain Data • Update results data (missing grades, withdrawls, remarks, appeals etc) using the Results Editor on the Alis+ secure website and request updated feedback.

15. Nov Nov Nov Nov Feb Feb Feb Feb Jan Jan Jan Jan April April April April June June June June Y11 Sept Sept Sept Sept Oct Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Dec March March March March May May May May July July July July Aug Aug Aug Aug Y12 Y13 Y14 Typical Timeline Registration Form 15th CABT Early Preds Prediction Reports (+Y13) Registration Form Entries Collection & Matching R Matching Checklists CABT (+ Early Preds) Registration SSheet Value Added Feedback Entries Collection & Matching Results Collection R Matching Checklists Value Added Feedback Results Collection

16. Baseline Assessment

17. Choice of Baseline • Average GCSE Score • CABT (Computer Adaptive Baseline Test) Why 2 Baselines ?

18. Why 2 Baselines ? • Average GCSE correlates very well to A-level / IB etc, but by itself is not sufficient…. • What is a GCSE ? • Students without GCSE ? • Years out between GCSE & A-level ? • Reliability of GCSE ? • Prior Value-Added ? Principle of Fair Analysis No2 : Appropriate Baseline

19. Average GCSE = 6 Average GCSE = 6 Average GCSE = 6 The Effect of Prior Value Added Beyond Expectation +ve Value-Added In line with Expectation 0 Value-Added Below Expectation -ve Value-Added Do these 3 students all have the same ability ?

20. Appropriate Baseline • Do students with the same GCSE score from feeder schools with differing value-added have the same ability ? • How can you tell if a student has underachieved at GCSE and thus can you maximise their potential ? • Has a student got v.good GCSE scores through the school effort rather than their ability alone ? • How will this affect expectation of attainment in the Sixth Form ? • Can you add value at every Key Stage ? Baseline testing provides a measure of ability that (to a large extent) is independent of the effect of prior treatment.

21. Computer Adaptive Baseline Test (CABT) • Test performed online – results automatically transmitted to CEM. • Minimal installation / setup required - if any. • Adaptive – difficulty of questions changes in relation to ability of student. • Efficient – no time wasted answering questions that are far too easy or difficult. • Wider range of ability • Less stressful on students – more enjoyable experience than paper test. • Less demanding invigilation. • Test designed to be completed in 1 hour or less. • No materials to courier In 2009 / 2010 over 65,000 students sat this test in Alis To try it out… www.intuproject.org/demos

22. Feedback

23. Intake Profiles

24. Intake Profiles (Historical)

25. Full Alis 2009 Demo School (999) Banana, Brian Banana, Brian IPR... Studying : Maths Physics Chemistry Biology ?

26. Prediction Reports Probability of achieving each grade Expected Grade

27. Which predicted grades are the most appropriate for ths student ?

28. Prediction Reports Subject Report

29. Alis Value Added Feedback

30. Burning Question : What is my Value-Added Score ? Better Question : Is it Important ? Principle of Fair Analysis No3 : Reflect Statistical Uncertainty

31. Value Added Feedback… SPC Chart 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year

32. Subject Summary - Current Year Subject Summary - 3 Year Average

33. A2-English Literature Statistical Process Control (SPC) Chart 2008 2009 2010 Year

34. A2 – English Literature Student Level Residuals (SLR) Report Scatter Plot General Underachievement ?

35. A2 – English Literature Student Level Residuals (SLR) Report Scatter Plot Too many U’s ?

36. Other things to look for… Why did these students do so badly ? Why did this student do so well ? How did they do in their other subjects ?

37. Summary of Process • Examine Subject Summary • Determine ‘interesting’ (i.e. statistically significant) subjects • Look at 3 year average as well as single year • Look at trends in ‘Interesting Subjects’ • Examine student data – SLR Report, scatter graphs • Identify students over / under achieving (student list in SLR or Paris) • Any known issues ? • Don’t forget to look at over achieving subjects as well as under achieving • Phone / E-Mail ALIS when you need help understanding / interpreting the data / statistics !

38. Attitudinal Surveys

39. There is more to school / college than exams…. • Student attitudes • Student Welfare & Safety • Non-academic activities • Support • Social and personal development Self Evaluation (Every Child Matters) Full ALIS

40. Attitudinal Feedback... Attitude to Institution Attitude to Subject

41. Private Tutors Extended Attitudes

42. Teaching and Learning Processes

43. SEF Survey • Extent of Bullying • Extent of Racism • Extent of Sectarianism • Healthy Lifestyles • How Well do Learner's Make a Positive Contribution to the Community • How Well do Learner's Prepare for Their Future Economic Well Being • Other Health and Safety Issues • School's/College's Action on Bullying • School's/College's Action on Racism • School's/College's Action on Sectarianism • School's/College's Action on Sexual Harassment • Spiritual, Moral, Emotional and Cultural Development To them out… www.intuproject.org/demos

44. School’s / College’s Action on Sexual Harassment

45. Summary

46. Alis History : • Alis began in 2003 (started life called COMBSE) • Developed in partnership with schools by professional educational researchers • After spreading locally in the North East, Alis grew rapidly nationwide, largely through decisions by individual schools and colleges to subscribe • Alis is part of CEM which is affiliated to the School of Education at Durham University. • Research by CEM acknowledged by Durham in contributing significantly to the international research reputation of the School of Education. • Alis – developed in an educational context, by educational professionals for use by educational professionals.

47. Alis Coverage : • Approx 1700 school / colleges anually • > 50% UK A-levels anually • A/AS; IB; BTec National; OCR National; Cache DCE • Developing BTec First; GCSE Resit • Alis Provides… Baseline Tests : • GCSE not always an appropriate or reliable measure of ability • GCSE Scores depend on KS4 value-added performance • Alternative baseline test available • Provides predictions and value-added analysis independent of performance at prior key stage

48. Alis Provides… Predictions : • Predictions targeted at the individual subject (on average, students with similar GCSE scores get different grades in different A-level subjects) • Predictions from GCSE and Alis baseline test (how reliable is GCSE as a measure of ability ? Does the student have GCSE’s ?) • Predictions at 50th and 75th percentile • Chances Data (what is the probability of achieving grades different to those predicted?) • Standardised Scores from the baseline tests including section breakdown (IPR Report) – what are the student’s strengths & weaknesses ?

49. Alis Provides… Value Added : • All VA scores are specific to the student and each individual subject • Reports at school, subject and student level. • Current and historical trend data • Three sets of reports available:- • Subject Level (Whole cohort) • Syllabus Level (Whole Cohort) • Subject Level (Specific to your school type) • VA available from GCSE and from the Alis baseline test • All data shown against appropriate confidence limits • Analysis available from beginning of September • Consortia / area / LA analysis available

50. Alis Provides… Attitudes : • In depth subject related attitudinal survey • In depth student welfare survey covering: • Extent of Bullying • Extent of Racism • Extent of Sectarianism • Healthy Lifestyles • How well do learners make a positive contribution to the community • How well do learners prepare for their future economic well being • School / College action on bullying • School / College action on racism • School / College action on sectarianism • School / College action on sexual harassment • Spiritual, moral, emotional and cultural development • Can provide evidence to use in Self Evaluation To them out… www.intuproject.org/demos